Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE: CMG)

Sector: Consumer Cyclical Industry: Restaurants CIK: 0001058090
Market Cap 50.59 Bn
P/B 17.87
P/E 32.94
P/S 4.24
ROIC (Qtr) 18.34
Div Yield % 0.00
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 4.86
Total Debt (Qtr) 5.08 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 1.79
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About

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., recognized in the stock market as CMG, operates in the fast-casual restaurant industry. With a mission to cultivate a better world, Chipotle has established itself as a company dedicated to serving responsibly sourced, classically cooked, and real food with wholesome ingredients. The company boasts a vast network of over 3,400 restaurants spread across the United States and internationally. Chipotle's primary business activities revolve around the operation of fast-casual restaurants. The company's core offerings include...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Strong operating cash flow of 2.11B provides robust 0.42x coverage of total debt 5.08B, indicating excellent debt servicing capability and financial flexibility.
  • Operating cash flow of 2.11B provides strong 17.68x coverage of stock compensation 119.54M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Strong operating cash flow of 2.11B provides 3.24x coverage of SG&A expenses 652.02M, showing efficient operational cost management.
  • Robust free cash flow of 1.45B exceeds capital expenditure of 666.34M by 2.17x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.
  • Tangible assets of 8.97B provide exceptional 37.33x coverage of deferred revenue 240.38M, showing strong service capability backing.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 2.11B barely covers its investment activities of (35.08M), with a coverage ratio of -60.26, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • High receivables of 156.47M relative to inventory of 49.51M (3.16 ratio) suggests aggressive credit terms or collection difficulties, potentially masking revenue quality issues.
  • Short-term investments of 698.59M represent 2.51x of working capital 278.81M, suggesting potentially excessive financial asset allocation versus operational needs.
  • Retained earnings of 619.91M provide limited buffer against comprehensive income items of (7.29M), which is -85.05x, indicating elevated exposure to market risks.
  • Operating cash flow of 2.11B is outpaced by equity issuance of (2.43B) (-0.87 ratio), indicating concerning reliance on equity markets for funding operations.

Product and Service Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Restaurants
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 MCD Mcdonalds Corp 346.46 Bn 68.40 14.10 55.82 Bn
2 SBUX Starbucks Corp 139.76 Bn 47.22 6.36 25.47 Bn
3 CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc 50.59 Bn 32.94 4.24 5.08 Bn
4 YUM Yum Brands Inc 45.22 Bn 31.73 5.84 11.55 Bn
5 DRI Darden Restaurants Inc 28.92 Bn 43.38 4.50 6.41 Bn
6 QSR Restaurant Brands International Inc. 22.20 Bn 24.07 2.40 15.64 Bn
7 DPZ Dominos Pizza Inc 21.88 Bn 221.01 13.28 -
8 YUMC Yum China Holdings, Inc. 20.52 Bn 22.69 1.77 1.84 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 6.10 2.21
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 25.94 312.98
EV to Debt EV to Debt 10.80 5.62
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 27.29 3.91
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 23.87 21.20
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 37.88 45.95
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.08 2.53
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 4.60 3.79
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 17.87 0.71
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 32.94 29.80
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Dividend Coverage Ratio 0.00 -9.75
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 21.96
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.00 0.94
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 34.43
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 0.00 -92.90
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -16.19 -26.40
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) -50.42 32.62
Dividend Growth (1y) % Dividend Growth (1y) % 0.00 3.33
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 0.11 -129.85
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 2.04 -17.63
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) -0.04 6.64
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) -0.04 -48.75
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 2.68 -142.91
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) -5.48 11.75
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 0.28 24.30
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 1.33 1.02
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.00 0.09
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.32 0.80
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 1.24 1.56
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 1.79 0.61
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 0.00 -92.90
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 0.00 -92.90
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 19.90 8.16
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 16.85 -2.09
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 16.85 -0.93
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 25.40 34.54
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 12.90 -2.80