Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NYSE: BXMT)

Sector: Real Estate Industry: REIT - Mortgage CIK: 0001061630
Market Cap 3.37 Bn
P/B 0.96
P/E 30.72
P/S 6.09
ROIC (Qtr) 1.11
Div Yield % 9.56
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 39.21
Total Debt (Qtr) 16.11 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 4.60
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About

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc., or BXMT, operates in the real estate finance industry and is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol BXMT. The company's primary business activity involves the origination or acquisition of senior, floating rate mortgage loans that are secured by a first-priority mortgage on commercial real estate assets in North America, Europe, and Australia. As of December 31, 2023, the company's loan portfolio consisted of 178 loans with a total principal balance of $24.9...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Operating cash flow of 275.87M provides exceptional 2758.73x coverage of minority interest expenses 100000, showing strong core operations.
  • Robust free cash flow of 263.10M exceeds capital expenditure of 12.77M by 20.60x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.
  • Strong operating cash flow of 275.87M provides 5.29x coverage of SG&A expenses 52.18M, showing efficient operational cost management.
  • Cash position of 452.53M provides exceptional 4525.26x coverage of minority interest expenses 100000, indicating strong liquidity.
  • Operating cash flow of 275.87M provides strong 45978.83x coverage of operating expenses 6000, showing operational efficiency.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 275.87M barely covers its investment activities of 359.40M, with a coverage ratio of 0.77, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 275.87M provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (322.73M) with a -0.85 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Cash reserves of 452.53M provide limited coverage of acquisition spending of (207.12M), which is -2.18x, suggesting aggressive expansion might strain liquidity if market conditions deteriorate.
  • Operating earnings of 113.24M show weak coverage of depreciation charges of 68.84M, with a 1.64 ratio indicating high capital intensity and potential reinvestment needs.
  • Free cash flow of 263.10M represents just -3.26x of debt issuance (80.68M), suggesting concerning reliance on leverage rather than internal cash generation for growth.

Peer comparison

Companies in the REIT - Mortgage
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 NLY Annaly Capital Management Inc 14.71 Bn 7.87 6.55 116.19 Bn
2 STWD Starwood Property Trust, Inc. 6.37 Bn 17.38 3.53 21.43 Bn
3 RITM Rithm Capital Corp. 5.13 Bn 8.83 1.19 34.97 Bn
4 AGNC AGNC Investment Corp. 4.37 Bn -4.73 -5.78 95.01 Bn
5 BXMT Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. 3.37 Bn 30.72 6.09 16.11 Bn
6 ARI Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. 1.51 Bn 13.19 5.56 7.92 Bn
7 LADR Ladder Capital Corp 1.32 Bn 20.49 6.10 3.51 Bn
8 EFC Ellington Financial Inc. 1.18 Bn 10.42 3.75 15.57 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.92 0.76
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 66.88 -6.93
EV to Debt EV to Debt 1.15 1.12
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 162.94 167.08
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 64.43 48.08
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 70.13 9.77
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 5.48 21.65
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 33.37 6.17
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 0.96 0.54
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 30.72 772.25
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 0.34 -0.59
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 293.70 -30.07
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 1.88 1.18
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 122.16 74.31
Interest Coverage Interest Coverage 0.00 -0.17
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -2,064.92 -29.64
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 39.89 17.79
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) -13.76 5.51
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 153.69 -21.86
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) -18.53 -15.11
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 156.14 -17.24
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 156.14 -27.05
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 154.70 -51.32
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) -28.09 53.49
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) -32.86 -1.07
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.03 0.04
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 1.12 0.73
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio 0.00 0.00
Current Ratio Current Ratio 0.00 0.00
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 4.60 5.09
Interest Cover Ratio Interest Cover Ratio 0.00 -0.17
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned 0.00 -0.17
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 32.90 131.69
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 20.48 136.71
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 20.48 123.68
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 48.80 113.34
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 19.80 120.00