AGNC Investment Corp. (NASDAQ: AGNC)

Sector: Real Estate Industry: REIT - Mortgage CIK: 0001423689
Market Cap 4.37 Bn
P/B 0.46
P/E -4.73
P/S -5.78
ROIC (Qtr) 0.25
Div Yield % 25.40
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 56.36
Total Debt (Qtr) 95.01 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 8.30
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About

AGNC Investment Corp., or AGNC, is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that operates in the finance and mortgage industry. Its primary business is to generate income through the interest earned on its investments in residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and other real estate-related assets, with the company's common stock traded on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker symbol AGNC. AGNC's main business activities involve investing in various types of mortgage-backed securities. The company's primary products are Agency RMBS,...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Operating cash flow of 604M provides strong 28.76x coverage of stock compensation 21M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Strong operating cash flow of 604M provides 7.65x coverage of SG&A expenses 79M, showing efficient operational cost management.
  • Operating cash flow of 604M provides strong 15.49x coverage of operating expenses 39M, showing operational efficiency.
  • Strong tangible asset base of 108.44B provides 206.17x coverage of intangibles 526M, indicating robust asset quality.
  • Strong free cash flow of 604M provides 7.65x coverage of SG&A expenses 79M, indicating efficient cost management.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 604M barely covers its investment activities of (9.58B), with a coverage ratio of -0.06, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 604M provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (1.52B) with a -0.40 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Free cash flow of 604M represents just 0.07x of debt issuance 8.16B, suggesting concerning reliance on leverage rather than internal cash generation for growth.
  • Operating cash flow of 604M shows concerning coverage of minority interest expenses of (151M), which is -4x, suggesting complex corporate structure risks.
  • Operating cash flow of 604M is outpaced by equity issuance of 2.13B (0.28 ratio), indicating concerning reliance on equity markets for funding operations.

Peer comparison

Companies in the REIT - Mortgage
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 NLY Annaly Capital Management Inc 14.71 Bn 7.87 6.55 116.19 Bn
2 STWD Starwood Property Trust, Inc. 6.37 Bn 17.38 3.53 21.43 Bn
3 RITM Rithm Capital Corp. 5.13 Bn 8.83 1.19 34.97 Bn
4 AGNC AGNC Investment Corp. 4.37 Bn -4.73 -5.78 95.01 Bn
5 BXMT Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. 3.37 Bn 30.72 6.09 16.11 Bn
6 ARI Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. 1.51 Bn 13.19 5.56 7.92 Bn
7 LADR Ladder Capital Corp 1.32 Bn 20.49 6.10 3.51 Bn
8 EFC Ellington Financial Inc. 1.18 Bn 10.42 3.75 15.57 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.55 0.76
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 24.63 -6.93
EV to Debt EV to Debt 0.63 1.12
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT -66.86 167.08
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA -65.75 48.08
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 24.63 9.77
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 13.64 21.65
EV to Revenue EV/Rev -78.89 6.17
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 0.46 0.54
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E -4.73 772.25
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 0.38 -0.59
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 221.50 -30.07
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 1.44 1.18
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 250.87 74.31
Interest Coverage Interest Coverage 0.00 -0.17
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex Growth (1y) % 0.00 -29.64
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 7.00 17.79
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 0.00 5.51
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) -22.73 -21.86
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) -80.09 -15.11
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) -22.73 -17.24
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) -22.73 -27.05
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) -56.67 -51.32
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 2,616.67 53.49
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) -73.08 -1.07
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.00 0.04
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 5.04 0.73
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio 0.00 0.00
Current Ratio Current Ratio 0.00 0.00
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 8.30 5.09
Interest Cover Ratio Interest Cover Ratio 0.00 -0.17
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned 0.00 -0.17
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 265.90 131.69
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 265.86 136.71
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 265.86 123.68
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 100.00 113.34
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 184.70 120.00