ProShares Trust
NYSE: BOIL
$22.59 ▼ -0.31  (-1.35%)
At close: Jul 24, 2026 · 3:59 PM UTC
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About

ProShares Trust II is a Delaware statutory trust formed on October 9 2007 and organized into separate series each a Fund and collectively the Funds. The Trust operates as a sponsor of exchange traded funds that provide leveraged inverse and matching exposure to various benchmarks including volatility commodities currencies and precious metals. As of December 31 2025 sixteen series of the Trust have commenced investment operations and issue common units of beneficial interest…

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CIK: 0001415311

Investment Thesis

▲ Bull case
  • The U.S. natural gas market is positioned for a structural supply-demand imbalance that could drive sustained price appreciation, which would significantly benefit BOIL as a leveraged long natural gas ETF. Despite recent headlines highlighting declining LNG export flows due to maintenance, the underlying fundamentals point to strengthening demand catalysts. The EIA projects U.S. LNG exports will rise from a record 15.1 bcfd in 2025 to 17.0 bcfd in 2026 and 18.2 bcfd in 2027, driven by new export capacity coming online at facilities like Golden Pass, Corpus Christi (Stage 3), and Sabine Pass expansions. These projects represent multi-year infrastructure buildouts that will structurally increase U.S. gas demand, even as domestic consumption dips slightly in 2026. The Permian and Haynesville basins are expected to drive production growth through associated gas from rising crude oil output, but export growth is projected to outpace production increases, tightening the market. This dynamic is further supported by the current negative pricing at Waha Hub—a symptom of pipeline constraints that, once alleviated through midstream investments, will unlock trapped supply and allow producers to capture higher Henry Hub-linked prices. BOIL, as a 2x leveraged instrument, is poised to amplify gains from this anticipated tightening, especially if weather normalizes and storage draws accelerate ahead of summer cooling demand.
  • Market sentiment may be underestimating the resilience of natural gas demand despite mild spring weather, creating a hidden catalyst for BOIL as seasonal patterns reassert themselves. While analysts noted that mild weather earlier in the spring allowed for above-normal storage injections (reaching 8% above normal in late April), the inventory surplus has already begun to draw down to just 7% above normal by the week ended May 1—a faster-than-expected decline driven by cooler temperatures and firm LNG export demand. This suggests that even without extreme weather, baseline demand from power generation, industrial use, and export facilities is sufficient to gradually reduce the oversupply narrative. Furthermore, LSEG’s demand forecasts show only a modest dip from 103.2 bcfd this week to 99.4 bcfd in two weeks, indicating demand remains robust relative to recent production levels of ~108.6 bcfd. The market may be overreacting to short-term output declines from producers like EQT cutting production due to low spot prices, but these are tactical, not structural—especially as associated gas growth from the Permian and Haynesville is tied to oil prices, which remain supported by OPEC+ discipline and global demand. If oil prices stabilize or rise, associated gas production will continue to grow, but export demand growth (projected at +1.9 bcfd in 2026 alone) could absorb this and more, creating a bullish divergence that BOIL’s leverage would magnify.
▼ Bear case
  • BOIL faces significant headwinds from structural oversupply in the U.S. natural gas market, which the EIA’s latest forecast confirms will persist through 2027, undermining any near-term price recovery prospects. The agency projects dry gas production will rise from 107.7 bcfd in 2025 to 110.6 bcfd in 2026 and 115.0 bcfd in 2027, while domestic consumption is expected to remain relatively flat at 91.2 bcfd in 2026 before a modest rebound to 94.4 bcfd in 2027. This creates a growing surplus of exported gas that must be absorbed by LNG facilities—but even with projected export growth to 17.0 bcfd in 2026 and 18.2 bcfd in 2027, the total marketable demand (domestic + exports) reaches only ~108.6 bcfd in 2026 and ~112.6 bcfd in 2027, still below production forecasts of 110.6 bcfd and 115.0 bcfd respectively. This persistent production excess, driven by associated gas from oil-linked drilling in the Permian and Haynesville, suggests that Henry Hub prices may remain range-bound or under pressure despite incremental export capacity. Furthermore, the current negative pricing at Waha Hub—averaging -$2.17/mmBtu in 2026—reflects deep basin-level oversupply that will only ease with costly and time-consuming pipeline expansions, not short-term market mechanics. For BOIL, a 2x leveraged ETF susceptible to contango and volatility decay, prolonged range-bound or declining prices would erode value through both directional losses and the compounding impact of daily reset mechanics in a sideways market.
  • The market may be overlooking the growing risk that weather-related demand support is diminishing due to long-term climate trends and energy efficiency gains, which could suppress natural gas prices more persistently than anticipated, posing a direct threat to BOIL’s performance. While recent news cites "near normal" weather forecasts through mid-May, the broader context shows a trend of milder winters and reduced heating degree days, which have historically been a key driver of winter gas demand. Additionally, the EIA projects coal production will fall to 487.1 million short tons in 2027—the lowest since 1963—not just due to gas competition but also renewable penetration and grid modernization, meaning gas may not fully displace coal as expected. More critically, the agency forecasts carbon dioxide emissions will decline in 2026 as oil, coal, and gas use decrease, suggesting a broader structural shift away from fossil fuels that could cap gas demand growth despite export ambitions. If global decarbonization accelerates or LNG importing economies adopt more renewables faster than expected, the projected surge in U.S. LNG exports (to 18.2 bcfd by 2027) may not materialize, leaving producers with even fewer outlets for rising associated gas output. This would exacerbate the supply glut, keep downward pressure on Henry Hub prices, and trigger persistent losses in BOIL due to its leveraged exposure to a commoditized, structurally challenged market where contango and roll yield frequently erode returns even in flat or slowly declining price environments.