Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: BAER)

Sector: Industrials Industry: Security & Protection Services CIK: 0001941536
Market Cap 125.94 Mn
P/B -0.39
P/E -6.24
P/S 0.97
ROIC (Qtr) -22.14
Div Yield % 0.00
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 5.24
Total Debt (Qtr) 211.45 Mn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) -0.66
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About

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc., often referred to as Bridger Aerospace, operates in the aerial wildfire surveillance, relief, and suppression industry. The company was established in 2014 by Timothy Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL officer, with an ambition to create a global enterprise dedicated to fighting wildfires. Bridger Aerospace has since evolved into a comprehensive aerial firefighting service provider in the United States and internationally, offering advanced technology and services to offer crucial fire data to ground crews and fire...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Healthy cash reserves of 64.38M provide 13.34x coverage of short-term debt 4.83M, demonstrating strong liquidity position and minimal refinancing risk.
  • Robust free cash flow of 22.41M exceeds capital expenditure of 11.54M by 1.94x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.
  • Robust tangible asset base of 284.10M provides 4.31x coverage of working capital 65.84M, indicating strong operational backing.
  • Tangible assets of 284.10M provide robust 25.71x coverage of other current liabilities 11.05M, indicating strong asset backing.
  • Retained earnings of (409.95M) represent substantial 1.27x of equity (322.39M), indicating strong internal capital generation.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 33.95M barely covers its investment activities of (8.54M), with a coverage ratio of -3.97, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • The company's operating cash flow of 33.95M shows concerning coverage of stock compensation expenses of 7.27M, with a 4.67 ratio indicating potential earnings quality issues.
  • High receivables of 17.73M relative to inventory of 1.04M (17 ratio) suggests aggressive credit terms or collection difficulties, potentially masking revenue quality issues.
  • Operating cash flow of 33.95M provides minimal -48.57x coverage of tax expenses of (699000), suggesting potential tax planning inefficiencies or unsustainable tax positions.
  • Operating earnings of 28.97M show weak coverage of depreciation charges of 16.89M, with a 1.72 ratio indicating high capital intensity and potential reinvestment needs.

Type of service. Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Geographical Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Security & Protection Services
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 ALLE Allegion plc 14.00 Bn 21.75 3.44 1.98 Bn
2 MSA MSA Safety Inc 7.99 Bn 374.33 5.71 0.63 Bn
3 BCO Brinks Co 6.24 Bn 112.89 1.74 4.32 Bn
4 BRC Brady Corp 4.99 Bn 38.51 4.29 0.18 Bn
5 ADT ADT Inc. 4.95 Bn -9.23 1.68 7.81 Bn
6 CXW CoreCivic, Inc. 2.04 Bn 18.69 0.98 1.04 Bn
7 GEO Geo Group Inc 2.02 Bn 8.48 0.80 1.63 Bn
8 NSSC Napco Security Technologies, Inc 1.57 Bn 33.18 8.19 0.01 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.99 1.53
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 9.06 15.25
EV to Debt EV to Debt 1.46 44.60
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 10.62 8.47
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 7.02 14.35
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 13.73 28.03
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 2.44 0.95
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 2.37 2.53
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B -0.39 3.48
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E -6.24 32.21
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) -0.76 106.48
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 25.28
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.00 0.36
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 7.91
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 1.25 -11.72
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -75.42 -7.19
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 51.15 23.04
Dividend Growth (1y) % Dividend Growth (1y) % 0.00 -3.73
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 413.30 35.26
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 1,631.66 87.34
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 375.59 29.11
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 116.74 41.98
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 68.94 37.27
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 325.22 -41.16
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 66.69 7.42
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.42 0.71
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.00 0.05
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 2.88 1.61
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 3.95 3.37
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) -0.66 1.13
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 1.25 -11.72
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 1.25 -11.72
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 35.30 -5.57
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 22.30 -15.45
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 4.42 -14.45
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 44.20 38.13
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) -15.50 -16.17