XP Inc. (NASDAQ: XP)

Sector: Financial Services Industry: Capital Markets CIK: 0001787425
Market Cap 8.51 Bn
P/B 1.94
P/E 9.08
P/S 2.56
ROIC (Qtr) 24.02
Div Yield % 5.18
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 9.52
Total Debt (Qtr) 21.09 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 4.80

About

XP Inc., a company listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol XP, operates in the financial services industry with a diverse range of businesses including brokerage, asset management, insurance, and banking. The company's headquarters are in Brazil, and it has a significant presence in the Brazilian financial market. XP Inc. generates revenue through various sources, including brokerage commissions, asset management fees, insurance premiums, and banking services. The company's primary products and services include brokerage services,...

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Price action

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Operating cash flow of 3.54B provides exceptional 1357.39x coverage of minority interest expenses 2.61M, showing strong core operations.
  • Strong tangible asset base of 73.61B provides 3.49x coverage of total debt 21.09B, indicating robust asset backing and low credit risk.
  • Operating cash flow of 3.54B provides exceptional 27.59x coverage of interest expenses 128.21M, showing strong debt service capability.
  • Operating cash flow of 3.54B provides strong 41.66x coverage of stock compensation 84.91M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Robust free cash flow of 3.50B exceeds capital expenditure of 33.35M by 105.09x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 3.54B barely covers its investment activities of (123.86M), with a coverage ratio of -28.56, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Cash reserves of 2.30B provide limited coverage of acquisition spending of (44.60M), which is -51.64x, suggesting aggressive expansion might strain liquidity if market conditions deteriorate.
  • Free cash flow of 3.50B represents just -16.36x of debt issuance (214.15M), suggesting concerning reliance on leverage rather than internal cash generation for growth.
  • Retained earnings of 718.75M provide limited buffer against comprehensive income items of (51.30M), which is -14.01x, indicating elevated exposure to market risks.
  • Operating cash flow of 3.54B is outpaced by equity issuance of (214M) (-16.53 ratio), indicating concerning reliance on equity markets for funding operations.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Capital Markets
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 GS Goldman Sachs Group Inc 284.23 Bn 17.94 4.84 911.32 Bn
2 MS Morgan Stanley 279.63 Bn 17.97 4.05 353.12 Bn
3 SCHW Schwab Charles Corp 179.33 Bn 23.09 7.83 27.59 Bn
4 HOOD Robinhood Markets, Inc. 106.92 Bn 48.73 25.43 0.00 Bn
5 CRCL Circle Internet Group, Inc. 40.97 Bn 261.00 24.22 0.15 Bn
6 IBKR Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. 28.23 Bn 30.79 4.75 28.43 Bn
7 LPLA LPL Financial Holdings Inc. 27.60 Bn 33.13 1.77 7.52 Bn
8 FUTU Futu Holdings Ltd 22.89 Bn 18.13 8.54 1.75 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.05 1.07
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 1.02 15.33
EV to Debt EV to Debt 0.17 21.89
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 3.29 -0.80
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 3.22 11.20
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 1.02 43.08
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 0.42 -0.05
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 1.08 12.82
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 1.94 3.09
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 9.08 6.20
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 0.00 4.22
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 36.80 10.37
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.65 0.70
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 1.82 -8.68
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 8.52 37.53
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -71.04 -12,429.64
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 172.33 1,588.78
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) -10.96 4.88
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 14.46 270.93
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 10.28 333.57
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 10.05 3,103.22
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 12.71 3,039.53
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 19.92 24.25
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 56.17 -80.08
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 9.74 51.33
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.01 0.42
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.00 -0.08
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio 0.00 2.01
Current Ratio Current Ratio 0.00 3.47
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 4.80 1.46
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 8.52 37.53
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 8.52 37.53
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 33.80 76.68
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 177.34 46.81
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 29.04 58.57
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 70.60 53.60
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 28.20 29.41