Waste Connections, Inc. (NYSE: WCN)

Sector: Industrials Industry: Waste Management CIK: 0001318220
Market Cap 42.09 Bn
P/B 5.20
P/E 67.66
P/S 4.50
ROIC (Qtr) 4.99
Div Yield % 0.77
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 5.13
Total Debt (Qtr) 8.96 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 1.11

About

Waste Connections, Inc., a prominent player in the solid waste services industry, is represented by the ticker WCN on the New York Stock Exchange. With a presence in 44 states in the U.S. and six provinces in Canada, the company has established itself as the third largest solid waste services provider in North America. Waste Connections specializes in non-hazardous waste collection, transfer, and disposal services, including rail transportation. The company also engages in resource recovery, primarily through recycling and renewable fuels generation....

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Price action

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Healthy cash reserves of 290.58M provide 4.43x coverage of short-term debt 65.59M, demonstrating strong liquidity position and minimal refinancing risk.
  • Operating cash flow of 2.43B provides strong 31.47x coverage of stock compensation 77.09M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Tangible assets of 10.50B provide exceptional 25.52x coverage of deferred revenue 411.58M, showing strong service capability backing.
  • Strong operating cash flow of 2.43B provides 2.58x coverage of SG&A expenses 940.91M, showing efficient operational cost management.
  • Operating cash flow of 2.43B provides strong 5.89x coverage of deferred revenue 411.58M, indicating service delivery capability.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 2.43B barely covers its investment activities of (1.95B), with a coverage ratio of -1.25, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 2.43B provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (324.95M) with a -7.47 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Cash reserves of 290.58M provide limited coverage of acquisition spending of (737.91M), which is -0.39x, suggesting aggressive expansion might strain liquidity if market conditions deteriorate.
  • Operating earnings of 1.13B show weak coverage of depreciation charges of 1.23B, with a 0.91 ratio indicating high capital intensity and potential reinvestment needs.
  • Cash position of 290.58M provides weak coverage of payables of 759.27M, which is 0.38x, indicating potential working capital stress and supplier relationship risks.

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Waste Management
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 WM Waste Management Inc 99.66 Bn 99.17 7.44 23.36 Bn
2 RSG Republic Services, Inc. 73.30 Bn 99.83 7.97 13.27 Bn
3 WCN Waste Connections, Inc. 42.09 Bn 67.66 4.50 8.96 Bn
4 GFL GFL Environmental Inc. 16.72 Bn 6.39 3.34 5.71 Bn
5 CLH Clean Harbors Inc 13.63 Bn 35.09 2.29 3.02 Bn
6 CWST Casella Waste Systems Inc 6.36 Bn 417.00 3.54 1.23 Bn
7 NVRI ENVIRI Corp 1.48 Bn -8.91 0.66 1.67 Bn
8 MEG Montrose Environmental Group, Inc. 0.86 Bn -30.94 1.04 0.37 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 2.43 1.86
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 20.82 1.99
EV to Debt EV to Debt 5.64 141.65
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 44.86 10.83
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 21.50 -3.88
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 40.53 9.06
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.20 0.66
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 5.40 8.81
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 5.20 4.15
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 67.66 33.89
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 1.91 4.52
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 52.30 7.28
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 1.26 0.36
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 25.98 6.04
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 3.41 -114.06
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -24.33 -42.93
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 21.83 59.31
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 10.53 0.43
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) -25.69 1,182.04
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) -9.77 332.85
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) -26.00 973.21
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) -34.12 159.54
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) -33.79 85.89
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) -1.64 -19.83
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 8.41 10.50
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.45 0.60
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.09 0.02
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.14 0.60
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 0.67 1.57
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 1.11 0.73
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 3.41 -114.06
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 3.41 -114.06
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 25.20 -42.95
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 12.04 -56.49
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 8.50 -61.58
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 42.10 17.43
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 6.70 -71.04