Vistra Corp. (NYSE: VST)

Sector: Utilities Industry: Utilities - Independent Power Producers CIK: 0001692819
Market Cap 73.36 Bn
P/B 14.97
P/E -53.28
P/S 5.34
ROIC (Qtr) 6.74
Div Yield % 0.55
Rev 1y % (Qtr) -20.94
Total Debt (Qtr) 17.66 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 3.39
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About

Vistra Corp., known by its stock symbol VST, is a prominent player in the power generation and retail electricity industry within the United States. The company's operations are characterized by a blend of customer-focused retail sales and safe, dependable, assorted, and efficient power generation. Vistra's integrated power generation and wholesale operations empower it to acquire electricity needed to cater to its customers in a cost-effective manner. The company's retail operations encompass the sale of electricity, natural gas, and related services...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Operating cash flow of 3.99B provides strong 37.65x coverage of stock compensation 106M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Operating cash flow of 3.99B provides exceptional 81.45x coverage of minority interest expenses 49M, showing strong core operations.
  • Strong operating cash flow of 3.99B provides 2.32x coverage of SG&A expenses 1.72B, showing efficient operational cost management.
  • Tangible assets of 33.11B provide robust 5.90x coverage of other current liabilities 5.61B, indicating strong asset backing.
  • Strong free cash flow of 1.73B provides 11.50x coverage of acquisition spending 150M, indicating disciplined M&A strategy.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 3.99B barely covers its investment activities of (2.48B), with a coverage ratio of -1.61, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 3.99B provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (304M) with a -13.13 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • High receivables of 2.33B relative to inventory of 970M (2.40 ratio) suggests aggressive credit terms or collection difficulties, potentially masking revenue quality issues.
  • Operating earnings of 2.28B show weak coverage of depreciation charges of 2.96B, with a 0.77 ratio indicating high capital intensity and potential reinvestment needs.
  • High financing cash flow of (1.74B) relative to working capital of (45M), which is 38.73x suggests concerning dependence on external funding for operational needs.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Utilities - Independent Power Producers
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 VST Vistra Corp. 73.36 Bn -53.28 5.34 17.66 Bn
2 NRG Nrg Energy, Inc. 46.15 Bn 44.25 4.80 12.11 Bn
3 TLN Talen Energy Corp 17.14 Bn 75.84 7.45 2.99 Bn
4 KEN Kenon Holdings Ltd. 4.39 Bn 9.20 5.46 1.38 Bn
5 TAC Transalta Corp 3.50 Bn -28.96 1.95 2.66 Bn
6 DGXX Digi Power X Inc. 0.09 Bn -6.97 2.74 0.00 Bn
7 PAM Pampa Energy Inc. 0.00 Bn 0.00 0.00 -

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 2.25 1.83
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 176.17 49.01
EV to Debt EV to Debt 4.84 3.50
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT -70.67 5.95
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 98.21 35.45
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF -115.78 12.20
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.16 1.12
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 6.22 5.24
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 14.97 0.88
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E -53.28 6.68
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 1.94 0.64
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 31.50 2.42
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.89 0.40
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 17.56 8.07
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 2.14 69.73
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -17.96 -12.19
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) -32.13 146.90
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 3.35 -3.03
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) -22.68 5.66
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) -16.58 -128.84
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) -39.93 -6.04
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) -56.00 -8.31
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) -48.27 -17.95
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) -20.51 18.34
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) -3.43 7.09
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.45 0.51
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.05 0.04
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.08 1.07
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 1.00 2.39
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 3.39 2.48
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 2.14 69.73
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 2.14 69.73
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 30.50 30.25
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 13.27 15.08
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 7.08 7.19
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 50.20 26.28
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 5.60 5.55