Nrg Energy, Inc. (NYSE: NRG)

Sector: Utilities Industry: Utilities - Independent Power Producers CIK: 0001013871
Market Cap 46.15 Bn
P/B -29.38
P/E 44.25
P/S 4.80
ROIC (Qtr) 11.63
Div Yield % 0.34
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 5.70
Total Debt (Qtr) 12.11 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 6.15
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About

NRG Energy, Inc., commonly referred to as NRG, is a leading energy and home services company that operates in the United States and Canada. The company's full name is NRG Energy, Inc., and its ticker symbol is NRG. NRG operates in a diverse range of energy markets, including Texas, the East, the West, and Canada, as well as in the smart home market through its Vivint Smart Home segment. NRG generates revenue through the sale of electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company's primary products and services...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Operating cash flow of 2.74B provides strong 26.62x coverage of stock compensation 103M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Robust free cash flow of 1.71B exceeds capital expenditure of 1.03B by 1.65x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.
  • Tangible assets of 16.52B provide exceptional 10x coverage of deferred revenue 1.65B, showing strong service capability backing.
  • Robust tangible asset base of 16.52B provides 40.21x coverage of working capital 411M, indicating strong operational backing.
  • Operating cash flow of 2.74B fully covers other non-current liabilities 1.34B by 2.05x, showing strong long-term stability.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 2.74B barely covers its investment activities of (1.53B), with a coverage ratio of -1.80, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 2.74B provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (409M) with a -6.70 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Cash reserves of 762M provide limited coverage of acquisition spending of (598M), which is -1.27x, suggesting aggressive expansion might strain liquidity if market conditions deteriorate.
  • High receivables of 3.33B relative to inventory of 452M (7.37 ratio) suggests aggressive credit terms or collection difficulties, potentially masking revenue quality issues.
  • Operating earnings of 2.41B show weak coverage of depreciation charges of 924M, with a 2.60 ratio indicating high capital intensity and potential reinvestment needs.

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Utilities - Independent Power Producers
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 VST Vistra Corp. 73.36 Bn -53.28 5.34 17.66 Bn
2 NRG Nrg Energy, Inc. 46.15 Bn 44.25 4.80 12.11 Bn
3 TLN Talen Energy Corp 17.14 Bn 75.84 7.45 2.99 Bn
4 KEN Kenon Holdings Ltd. 4.39 Bn 9.20 5.46 1.38 Bn
5 TAC Transalta Corp 3.50 Bn -28.96 1.95 2.66 Bn
6 DGXX Digi Power X Inc. 0.09 Bn -6.97 2.74 0.00 Bn
7 PAM Pampa Energy Inc. 0.00 Bn 0.00 0.00 -

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 2.18 1.83
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 43.34 49.01
EV to Debt EV to Debt 4.32 3.50
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 35.35 5.95
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 36.13 35.45
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 53.44 12.20
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.13 1.12
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 5.44 5.24
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B -29.38 0.88
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 44.25 6.68
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 2.89 0.64
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 25.30 2.42
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 1.32 0.40
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 14.92 8.07
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 3.87 69.73
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -164.71 -12.19
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) -31.60 146.90
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) -19.02 -3.03
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 32.41 5.66
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) -0.26 -128.84
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 14.08 -6.04
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 28.79 -8.31
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 68.47 -17.95
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 41.78 18.34
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 42.57 7.09
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 1.24 0.51
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.11 0.04
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.10 1.07
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 1.05 2.39
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 6.15 2.48
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 3.87 69.73
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 3.87 69.73
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 11.20 30.25
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 8.08 15.08
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 5.99 7.19
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 21.80 26.28
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 4.60 5.55