Velocity Financial, Inc. (NYSE: VEL)

Sector: Financial Services Industry: Mortgage Finance CIK: 0001692376
Market Cap 708.50 Mn
P/B 1.12
P/E 7.90
P/S 2.27
ROIC (Qtr) 1.41
Div Yield % 0.00
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 53.56
Total Debt (Qtr) 6.15 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 9.70
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About

Velocity Financial, Inc., also known as VEL, is a real estate finance company based in the United States. The company, established in 2004 and headquartered in Delaware, is deeply involved in originating, securitizing, and managing a diverse portfolio of loans secured by real estate across the nation. Velocity Financial's primary business activities aim to generate attractive risk-adjusted spreads for its shareholders. The company's operations span three main segments: Originations, Servicing, and Corporate. The Originations segment is the backbone...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Operating cash flow of 55.92M provides exceptional 292.79x coverage of minority interest expenses 191000, showing strong core operations.
  • Robust free cash flow of 55.50M exceeds capital expenditure of 422000 by 131.52x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.
  • Cash position of 117.81M provides exceptional 616.81x coverage of minority interest expenses 191000, indicating strong liquidity.
  • Retained earnings of 267.58M provide strong 39.50x coverage of intangibles 6.78M, indicating quality earnings retention.
  • Operating cash flow of 55.92M provides strong 132.52x coverage of capital expenditure 422000, enabling organic growth.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 55.92M barely covers its investment activities of (1.63B), with a coverage ratio of -0.03, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 55.92M provides minimal 1.50x coverage of tax expenses of 37.19M, suggesting potential tax planning inefficiencies or unsustainable tax positions.
  • Operating cash flow of 55.92M barely covers operating expenses of 94.81M with a 0.59 ratio, suggesting thin operational efficiency margins and limited flexibility.
  • Free cash flow of 55.50M represents just 0.04x of debt issuance 1.57B, suggesting concerning reliance on leverage rather than internal cash generation for growth.
  • Retained earnings of 267.58M provide limited buffer against comprehensive income items of (2.92M), which is -91.73x, indicating elevated exposure to market risks.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Mortgage Finance
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 FNMA Federal National Mortgage Association Fannie Mae 45.24 Bn 5,026.67 1.55 4,053.14 Bn
2 RKT Rocket Companies, Inc. 37.92 Bn -371.21 6.57 19.41 Bn
3 FMCC Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp 27.03 Bn -346.50 1.16 3,405.02 Bn
4 WD Walker & Dunlop, Inc. 1.85 Bn 22.56 3.96 3.01 Bn
5 PFSI PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. 1.63 Bn 113.11 4.21 19.40 Bn
6 VEL Velocity Financial, Inc. 0.71 Bn 7.90 2.27 6.15 Bn
7 BETR Better Home & Finance Holding Co 0.47 Bn -2.56 3.26 0.55 Bn
8 LDI loanDepot, Inc. 0.41 Bn -5.61 0.36 4.51 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.91 -0.29
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 113.02 -306.56
EV to Debt EV to Debt 1.03 -0.16
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 49.37 74.08
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 48.70 34.17
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 113.88 16,800.36
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 8.92 19.32
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 20.27 21.05
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 1.12 -3.89
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 7.90 294.11
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 79.75 7.52
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 141.58
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.00 0.43
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 -7.23
Interest Coverage Interest Coverage 0.00 -0.52
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -223.39 -24.00
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 75.15 52.20
Dividend Growth (1y) % Dividend Growth (1y) % 0.00 1.53
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 39.36 10.22
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 45.65 393.39
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 47.14 -7.84
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 47.14 -41.79
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 27.27 -5.52
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 79.13 -27.18
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 44.09 15.35
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.04 0.11
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.00 -0.02
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio 0.00 0.01
Current Ratio Current Ratio 0.00 0.01
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 9.70 15.84
Interest Cover Ratio Interest Cover Ratio 0.00 -0.52
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned 0.00 -0.52
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 41.60 18.97
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 41.06 -17.72
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 41.06 -17.90
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 100.00 72.92
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 28.80 -25.85