Two Harbors Investment Corp. (NYSE: TWO)

Sector: Real Estate Industry: REIT - Mortgage CIK: 0001465740
Market Cap 1.09 Bn
P/B 0.62
P/E -4.53
P/S 3.25
ROIC (Qtr) -1.95
Div Yield % 18.76
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 169.14
Total Debt (Qtr) 8.43 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 4.76

About

Two Harbors Investment Corp., often recognized by its ticker symbol TWO, operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) within the financial industry. This company specializes in investing in mortgage servicing rights (MSR), agency residential mortgage-backed securities (Agency RMBS), and other financial assets. Two Harbors aims to provide consistent performance in fluctuating market environments and generate sustained value for its stockholders over the long term. Two Harbors' primary business activities revolve around building an investment...

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Price action

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Cash position of 886.92M fully covers payables of 390.60M by 2.27x, showing strong vendor relationship management.
  • Tangible assets of 10.87B provide robust 21.50x coverage of receivables 505.35M, showing strong asset quality.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of (49.27M) barely covers its investment activities of 2.15B, with a coverage ratio of -0.02, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of (49.27M) provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (182.09M) with a 0.27 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • The company's operating cash flow of (49.27M) shows concerning coverage of stock compensation expenses of 11.61M, with a -4.24 ratio indicating potential earnings quality issues.
  • Operating cash flow of (49.27M) provides minimal -1.44x coverage of tax expenses of 34.17M, suggesting potential tax planning inefficiencies or unsustainable tax positions.
  • Free cash flow of (49.27M) represents just 0.03x of debt issuance (1.60B), suggesting concerning reliance on leverage rather than internal cash generation for growth.

Peer comparison

Companies in the REIT - Mortgage
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 NLY Annaly Capital Management Inc 13.57 Bn 10.12 7.94 107.02 Bn
2 AGNC AGNC Investment Corp. 11.33 Bn 16.49 30.46 95.01 Bn
3 STWD Starwood Property Trust, Inc. 6.34 Bn 17.32 3.51 21.43 Bn
4 RITM Rithm Capital Corp. 5.69 Bn 7.32 1.14 34.97 Bn
5 BXMT Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. 3.26 Bn 30.37 6.41 15.46 Bn
6 ARR Armour Residential REIT, Inc. 1.84 Bn 35.07 15.78 16.56 Bn
7 DX Dynex Capital Inc 1.60 Bn 9.10 6.93 11.75 Bn
8 ABR Arbor Realty Trust Inc 1.50 Bn 9.82 2.84 10.40 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.96 0.83
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO -212.44 -102.96
EV to Debt EV to Debt 1.24 1.31
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT -101.05 -260.73
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA -48.82 -16.37
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF -212.44 3.47
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 9.60 9.18
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 31.18 26.77
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 0.62 0.68
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E -4.53 -4.85
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) -0.84 -0.55
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) -75.00 29.47
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 1.63 1.15
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) -344.61 57.60
Interest Coverage Interest Coverage 0.00 -0.17
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex Growth (1y) % 0.00 37.60
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 44.99 24.22
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) -9.44 4.53
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 62.08 17.83
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 48.91 9.86
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 72.51 20.98
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 72.51 11.17
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 51.67 59.25
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) -114.85 59.63
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 234.62 20.65
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.03 0.04
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) -1.20 0.83
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.00 0.00
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 0.00 0.00
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 4.76 5.05
Interest Cover Ratio Interest Cover Ratio 0.00 -0.17
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned 0.00 -0.17
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) -30.90 137.11
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) -30.86 142.19
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) -30.86 129.16
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 100.00 117.97
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) -71.70 125.89