Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (NYSE: THG)

Sector: Financial Services Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty CIK: 0000944695
Market Cap 7.72 Bn
P/B 2.65
P/E 24.10
P/S 1.50
ROIC (Qtr) 15.08
Div Yield % 1.46
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 6.37
Total Debt (Qtr) 1.28 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.37
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About

Hanover Insurance Group, Inc., often referred to as THG, operates in the property and casualty insurance industry in the United States. The company offers a variety of insurance products and services, including commercial multiple peril, workers' compensation, commercial automobile, and personal lines insurance. Its insurance offerings are marketed through independent agents and brokers across the country. THG generates revenue primarily through the sale of its insurance products. In 2023, the company's Core Commercial segment generated $2.2 billion,...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Strong operating cash flow of 1.01B provides robust 0.79x coverage of total debt 1.28B, indicating excellent debt servicing capability and financial flexibility.
  • Strong tangible asset base of 16.60B provides 12.97x coverage of total debt 1.28B, indicating robust asset backing and low credit risk.
  • Operating cash flow of 1.01B provides exceptional 27.24x coverage of interest expenses 37.20M, showing strong debt service capability.
  • Operating cash flow of 1.01B provides strong 28.71x coverage of stock compensation 35.30M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Robust free cash flow of 1B exceeds capital expenditure of 9.50M by 105.67x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 1.01B barely covers its investment activities of (792.70M), with a coverage ratio of -1.28, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 1.01B provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (129.30M) with a -7.84 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Operating cash flow of 1.01B provides insufficient coverage of deferred revenue obligations of 3.51B, which is 0.29x, raising concerns about future service delivery capabilities.
  • Operating earnings of 835.60M show weak coverage of depreciation charges of (3.90M), with a -214.26 ratio indicating high capital intensity and potential reinvestment needs.
  • Retained earnings of 3.58B provide limited buffer against comprehensive income items of (198.30M), which is -18.04x, indicating elevated exposure to market risks.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Insurance - Property & Casualty
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 PGR Progressive Corp/Oh/ 121.46 Bn 30.80 3.11 6.90 Bn
2 CB Chubb Ltd 109.27 Bn 36.88 5.64 21.01 Bn
3 ALL Allstate Corp 69.21 Bn 29.01 1.62 8.09 Bn
4 TRV Travelers Companies, Inc. 67.61 Bn 10.75 1.38 9.27 Bn
5 HIG Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. 61.19 Bn 37.09 3.27 4.37 Bn
6 WRB Berkley W R Corp 38.52 Bn 124.63 8.69 2.87 Bn
7 CINF Cincinnati Financial Corp 26.91 Bn 74.14 6.73 0.88 Bn
8 MKL Markel Group Inc. 26.46 Bn 13.00 1.68 4.28 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.49 0.50
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 16.32 -16.03
EV to Debt EV to Debt 6.37 11.42
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 16.60 22.13
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 15.47 17.53
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 16.71 68.07
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.06 0.91
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 1.59 2.31
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 2.65 2.97
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 24.10 29.62
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 4.89 7.41
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 20.50 19.66
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 3.60 1.49
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 12.84 37.69
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 22.46 -9.19
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -1.06 -17.83
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 114.40 30.27
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 5.88 16.34
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 68.64 62.82
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 61.79 35.62
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 63.43 56.25
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 67.31 52.70
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 72.28 48.20
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 48.46 15.47
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 32.42 16.55
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.39 0.38
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.13 0.45
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio 0.00 0.02
Current Ratio Current Ratio 0.00 0.06
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.37 0.23
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 22.46 -9.19
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 22.46 -9.19
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 12.80 14.01
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 12.84 13.05
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 12.27 12.25
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 23.60 40.49
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 9.70 9.63