Progressive Corp/Oh/ (NYSE: PGR)

Sector: Financial Services Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty CIK: 0000080661
Market Cap 121.46 Bn
P/B 8.88
P/E 30.80
P/S 3.11
ROIC (Qtr) 26.52
Div Yield % 7.82
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 14.16
Total Debt (Qtr) 6.90 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.19
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About

Progressive Corporation (PGR) is a leading insurance holding company that operates in the United States and internationally. The company's primary business activities include insurance underwriting, reinsurance, and investment management. Progressive is known for its significant market share in the personal and commercial auto insurance markets, making it one of the largest insurance companies in the United States. The company's main business activities involve insurance underwriting, reinsurance, and investment management. Insurance underwriting...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Strong operating cash flow of 17.39B provides robust 2.52x coverage of total debt 6.90B, indicating excellent debt servicing capability and financial flexibility.
  • Operating cash flow of 17.39B provides strong 137.76x coverage of stock compensation 126.20M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Operating cash flow of 17.39B provides exceptional 62.34x coverage of interest expenses 278.90M, showing strong debt service capability.
  • Strong tangible asset base of 121.53B provides 17.62x coverage of total debt 6.90B, indicating robust asset backing and low credit risk.
  • Robust free cash flow of 17.13B exceeds capital expenditure of 254.70M by 67.26x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 17.39B barely covers its investment activities of (14.37B), with a coverage ratio of -1.21, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 17.39B provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (2.87B) with a -6.06 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Operating cash flow of 17.39B provides insufficient coverage of deferred revenue obligations of 26.82B, which is 0.65x, raising concerns about future service delivery capabilities.
  • Operating cash flow of 17.39B is outpaced by equity issuance of (107.20M) (-162.18 ratio), indicating concerning reliance on equity markets for funding operations.
  • Cash position of 185M provides weak coverage of payables of 10.27B, which is 0.02x, indicating potential working capital stress and supplier relationship risks.

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2021)

Consolidation Items Breakdown of Revenue (2021)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Insurance - Property & Casualty
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 PGR Progressive Corp/Oh/ 121.46 Bn 30.80 3.11 6.90 Bn
2 CB Chubb Ltd 109.27 Bn 36.88 5.64 21.01 Bn
3 ALL Allstate Corp 69.21 Bn 29.01 1.62 8.09 Bn
4 TRV Travelers Companies, Inc. 67.61 Bn 10.75 1.38 9.27 Bn
5 HIG Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. 61.19 Bn 37.09 3.27 4.37 Bn
6 WRB Berkley W R Corp 38.52 Bn 124.63 8.69 2.87 Bn
7 CINF Cincinnati Financial Corp 26.91 Bn 74.14 6.73 0.88 Bn
8 MKL Markel Group Inc. 26.46 Bn 13.00 1.68 4.28 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 1.04 0.50
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 20.09 -16.03
EV to Debt EV to Debt 18.24 11.42
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 23.56 22.13
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 22.24 17.53
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 21.14 68.07
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.04 0.91
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 3.22 2.31
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 8.88 2.97
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 30.80 29.62
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 3.73 7.41
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 26.80 19.66
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 4.90 1.49
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 16.78 37.69
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 49.44 -9.19
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -41.42 -17.83
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 25.85 30.27
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 326.09 16.34
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 31.23 62.82
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 30.39 35.62
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 30.96 56.25
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 31.80 52.70
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 32.46 48.20
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 19.23 15.47
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 28.55 16.55
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.70 0.38
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.16 0.45
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio 0.00 0.02
Current Ratio Current Ratio 0.00 0.06
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.19 0.23
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 49.44 -9.19
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 49.44 -9.19
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 16.50 14.01
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 16.18 13.05
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 15.86 12.25
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 36.90 40.49
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 12.60 9.63