StoneCo Ltd. (NASDAQ: STNE)

$14.60 -0.18 (-1.18%)
As of Apr 14, 2026 03:59 PM
Sector: Technology Industry: Software - Infrastructure CIK: 0001745431
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About

StoneCo Ltd., a financial technology company listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the ticker symbol STNE, operates in the digital payment and financial services industry, providing innovative solutions to micro, small, and medium-sized businesses (MSMBs) in Brazil. Stone offers a wide range of products and services, including payment solutions, digital banking, and credit offerings. Its payment solutions enable merchants to accept various forms of electronic payments and alternative payment methods (APMs), such as payment slips (boletos)...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • StoneCo’s third‑quarter results demonstrate a disciplined capital allocation policy that has returned roughly 1 billion reais to shareholders while still retaining a sizable excess capital buffer. The company’s share buyback program, which has already consumed 74 % of its identified excess capital, is executed at a time when the balance sheet remains healthy, indicating strong cash generation and confidence in future growth. By maintaining a 10 % yield to shareholders, StoneCo sets a precedent for attractive shareholder value creation in a competitive fintech landscape. This disciplined approach to capital, coupled with a robust cash position, underpins a favorable risk‑adjusted return outlook for the firm.
  • The bank’s deposit base has expanded 32 % year‑over‑year, with 84 % of deposits now time‑locked, reflecting a deeper penetration of its investment solutions. This shift towards time deposits lowers the average funding spread, which in turn improves the net interest margin as the cost of capital declines. The strategic use of client deposits as a funding source has already offset higher floating revenue, enhancing overall efficiency. Such a funding model not only provides a hedge against rising interest rates but also supports the bank’s credit expansion plans.
  • Credit portfolio growth accelerated 27 % sequentially, driven primarily by merchant working‑capital financing and a modest increase in credit card issuance. Despite the natural maturation effect on NPLs, the cost of risk has decreased from 20.2 % to 16.8 % sequentially, indicating disciplined underwriting and effective risk management. Management’s decision to raise coverage ratios during weaker macro periods signals a prudent approach to provisioning, which should preserve portfolio quality as scale expands. A maturing credit book is expected to increase its share of the P&L, thereby bolstering profitability and providing a diversified revenue stream beyond payments.
  • Payments TPV reached $1 billion in the quarter, with a 49 % rise in QR code volumes that outpaced card transactions. The firm’s bundle strategy, which integrates banking, payments, and credit, has helped it capture higher engagement among heavy‑user clients, evidenced by 38 % of the active client base using three or more solutions. Although TPV growth may decelerate, the company’s focus on adding value to clients through integrated services positions it to maintain market share and potentially capture higher revenue per user. This ecosystem approach aligns with industry structural shifts toward cross‑selling and data‑driven product personalization.
  • Operating leverage is improving, with cost of services down 12 % year‑over‑year and selling expenses rising only 21 % due to a more evenly distributed marketing spend. Management highlighted that AI‑driven customer service and logistical scaling have generated tangible cost savings, which will become normalized as technology projects complete. The gradual reduction in administrative overheads and transaction costs is expected to widen margins further. A lean cost structure supports higher profitability even in a tighter TPV environment.

Bear case

  • Despite a 16 % rise in total revenue, StoneCo’s TPV growth decelerated in the third quarter, with 11 % year‑on‑year growth compared to 17 % in payments and 22 % in banking active clients. Management acknowledged that macro factors and industry-wide slowdown are dampening volume expansion, a trend that could continue through the year. Falling TPV translates into lower fee‑based revenue, potentially eroding the bank’s core earnings source and making it vulnerable to competitive pricing pressure. The deceleration also raises concerns about the sustainability of the firm’s growth trajectory.
  • Credit quality shows a gradual deterioration in NPLs: the fifteen‑to‑ninety‑day NPL rate rose to 3.12 % while over‑ninety‑day NPLs hit 5.03 %. Management attributes the increase to a specific client payment delay, yet the higher NPL over ninety days reflects natural portfolio aging. As the credit book grows, the exposure to non‑performing assets may widen, especially if macro conditions worsen or if the firm’s pricing strategy fails to fully compensate for higher default risk. Rising provisions and potential tightening of coverage ratios could compress margins in the near term.
  • Interest rate sensitivity remains a critical risk; management acknowledges a 100‑basis‑point decline in rates could boost earnings by only $200–$250 million, and that higher rates in the next year could erode funding advantages. The firm’s cost of risk is projected to stay above 2024 levels due to macro‑driven credit model adjustments. If rates rise, the bank’s funding cost could rise faster than its credit pricing, compressing net interest margins and potentially leading to a downgrade in profitability. The company’s current reliance on client deposits as a lower‑cost funding source is contingent on deposit growth, which may slow if economic conditions deteriorate.
  • The share buyback program, while currently yielding a 10 % return, may strain cash reserves if the program continues or expands in the absence of robust investment opportunities. Management indicates that excess capital is being returned when no “value‑accretive” projects are identified, suggesting a potential shortfall in strategic initiatives that could sustain long‑term growth. Persistent capital outflows could also limit the firm’s ability to invest in technology, product development, or market expansion, exposing it to competitive displacement. Moreover, a focus on buybacks may signal limited confidence in internal growth opportunities.
  • Pricing sustainability is questioned; management admits that current prepayment spreads are not at all‑time highs and may need to be adjusted in the future. The firm’s pricing adjustments were partly driven by macro conditions and competitor actions, indicating limited pricing power. If the competitive environment intensifies, StoneCo may face downward pressure on fees, particularly in the payments space where newer entrants are offering aggressive incentives. Such price erosion could hurt gross profit yields and ultimately impact earnings growth.

Segments [axis] Breakdown of Revenue (2024)