NUSCALE POWER Corp (NYSE: SMR)

Sector: Industrials Industry: Specialty Industrial Machinery CIK: 0001822966
Market Cap 3.27 Bn
P/E -3.55
P/S 103.80
Div. Yield 0.00
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About

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • NuScale’s status as the first and only U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission‑approved small modular reactor design gives it a decisive regulatory advantage that has historically blocked competitors. The recent partnership with the Tennessee Valley Authority and InterOne, which plans a 6‑GW deployment, validates the commercial viability of the technology and creates a clear revenue trajectory as modules move into construction. The milestone‑based Partnership Milestones Agreement accelerates cash flow by front‑loading InterOne’s development costs, allowing NuScale to recoup those outlays through future Power Purchase Agreement payments and thus establishing a self‑financing model.
  • The company’s diversified application portfolio—spanning baseload electricity, data‑center cooling, and industrial heat—positions it to tap emerging sectors with high demand for reliable, carbon‑free power. The ORNL AI‑enabled fuel‑management study demonstrates potential cost reductions through shared fuel pools across multiple modules, directly improving economics. By partnering with the DOE’s GAIN program, NuScale gains both technical expertise and credibility, potentially unlocking federal incentives that can offset capital expenditures. This cross‑sector appeal reduces reliance on a single customer type and supports broader market penetration.
  • NuScale’s liquidity has strengthened, with cash and equivalents rising to $753.8 million by September 30, 2025 from $490 million earlier in the quarter. The company monetized a substantial portion of its equity through an ATM program, generating $475 million in gross proceeds while limiting dilution. Combined with the milestone payments from InterOne, this infusion positions NuScale to sustain construction and regulatory activities without immediate debt, indicating resilience to the upfront capital demands of SMR construction.
  • The U.S.–Japan infrastructure investment framework and the $25 billion earmarked for InterOne create a robust funding environment for SMR projects. InterOne’s designation as the sole developer in this program suggests preferential access to capital and streamlined regulatory support, aligning national priorities with NuScale’s technology and potentially accelerating deployment timelines. The alignment of policy and financing enhances the likelihood of favorable outcomes for both the company and its off‑takers.
  • The partnership with Fluor, a global EPC leader, brings manufacturing scale and supply‑chain maturity to NuScale. Fluor’s conversion of its stake into common stock and subsequent monetization plan signal confidence in NuScale’s commercial prospects. This relationship also mitigates supply‑chain risk, as Fluor can leverage its existing procurement networks to secure reactor components and construction services, potentially lowering unit costs and improving economics.

Bear case

  • InterOne’s lack of on‑site construction experience introduces significant operational risk, as NuScale remains a technology supplier rather than a developer. Management’s Q&A acknowledged InterOne’s reliance on EPC partners for actual plant building, signaling that execution capability is outsourced and potentially delayed. The dependency on an external developer for complex regulatory and construction environments could result in missed milestone payments and contractual penalties, undermining the partnership’s value.
  • The milestone payments under the PMA are substantial—$495 million in the first quarter alone—but they do not represent revenue until a binding PPA is secured. This structure creates a significant cash burn risk, especially given NuScale’s current net loss and high G&A expenses. The company’s quarterly losses, driven by milestone expenses and limited operating revenue, indicate a cash‑constrained model that could become unsustainable if commercial contracts are delayed or priced lower than anticipated.
  • Regulatory and construction timelines for nuclear projects are notoriously protracted, and NuScale’s reliance on the NRC COLA process introduces a potential bottleneck. The COLA requires site‑specific licensing that can be delayed by environmental assessments, community opposition, or unforeseen technical hurdles. Any extension in the COLA approval could postpone module deployment and erode the projected revenue timeline, undermining the self‑financing model envisaged by management.
  • Fluor’s monetization agreement imposes constraints on NuScale’s equity issuance until February 2026, limiting the company’s ability to raise additional capital or manage dilution in the short term. This restriction could constrain flexibility to fund unforeseen construction costs or pursue new opportunities, especially if the company encounters delays or cost overruns. The conversion of Fluor’s Class B units may also signal a strategic exit for a major stakeholder, raising questions about long‑term ownership structure and governance alignment.
  • NuScale’s current revenue base is minimal, derived mainly from engineering services, while the bulk of its costs are milestone and G&A expenses. This imbalance indicates high operating leverage that can swing earnings dramatically with any change in project status. A single failure to secure a binding agreement with TVA or InterOne, or a renegotiation to a lower price, would materially impact cash flows and potentially force the company to seek additional debt or equity financing under less favorable terms. The limited revenue cushion makes the business model fragile.

Product and Service Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Equity Components Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Specialty Industrial Machinery
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 GEV GE Vernova Inc. 241.17 Bn 49.93 6.34 -
2 ETN Eaton Corp plc 141.80 Bn 34.85 5.18 9.89 Bn
3 CMI Cummins Inc 122.40 Bn 26.68 3.64 6.89 Bn
4 PH Parker-Hannifin Corp 116.22 Bn 33.12 5.68 9.87 Bn
5 ITW Illinois Tool Works Inc 75.19 Bn 24.77 4.69 8.97 Bn
6 EMR Emerson Electric Co 74.39 Bn 32.29 4.09 13.41 Bn
7 DOV DOVER Corp 53.94 Bn 25.88 6.67 3.33 Bn
8 ROK Rockwell Automation, Inc 52.17 Bn 42.02 6.09 2.64 Bn