Red Rock Resorts, Inc. (RRR) Stock Analysis and Metrics

Red Rock Resorts

NASDAQ: RRR

$63.92 ▲ +1.14 (+1.82%)

At close: Jul 24, 2026 · 3:59 PM UTC

Financial Ratios

Market Cap3.72 Bn

P/E10.56

P/S1.84

Div. Yield0.03

ROIC (Qtr)0.03

Total Debt (Qtr)3.55 Bn

Revenue Growth (1y) (Qtr)1.90

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About

Red Rock Resorts, Inc. is a holding company that owns an indirect equity interest in and manages Station Casinos LLC, through which it conducts all of its operations. Station Casinos LLC is a gaming, development and management company that develops and operates strategically-located casino and entertainment properties in the Las Vegas valley. The company owns and operates seven major gaming and entertainment facilities and 13 smaller casinos, three of which are 50% owned. Red Rock Resorts, Inc. has no operations outside of its management of Station Holdco LLC and Station LLC, and its only assets are its equity interest in Station Holdco, its voting interest in Station LLC and a note receivable from Station LLC.

Red Rock Resorts, Inc. generates revenue primarily through gaming activities at its casino properties, which include slot and video poker machines, table games, and sports wagering. Approximately 80% of its casino revenue is generated from slot play. The company also earns revenue from non-gaming offerings such as restaurants, hotels, entertainment amenities, meeting and convention spaces, and other leisure facilities. The majority of its revenue is cash-based, meaning fluctuations in revenue directly impact operating cash flows.

The company operates through the following segments: Gaming and Non-Gaming.

• The Gaming segment includes the operation of slot machines, table games, race and sports books, and other gaming activities across all of the company's casino properties. This segment represents the principal source of revenue and operating income for the business.

• The Non-Gaming segment encompasses revenue from hotels, restaurants, bars, entertainment venues, meeting and convention spaces, spas, salons, bowling centers, movie theaters, and other leisure amenities provided at the company's properties. These amenities support and enhance the overall guest experience.

Red Rock Resorts, Inc. holds a strong position in the Las Vegas regional gaming market, competing with both large hotel casinos on the Las Vegas Strip and smaller gaming-only establishments throughout the valley. The company differentiates itself by offering the newest and most popular slot and video games featuring the latest technology, a high-quality entertainment experience, and convenient locations with best-in-class assets. Over 90% of the Las Vegas population lives within five miles of one of its gaming facilities, giving it significant geographic reach and accessibility.

The company's customer base consists primarily of Las Vegas residents, supplemented by out-of-town visitors and regional guests. Its properties attract a broad demographic of local patrons who value friendly service, exceptional value, and a comfortable environment. The company focuses on attracting and retaining customers through targeted marketing, innovative promotional programs, and a commitment to providing a high-quality, value-oriented gaming and entertainment experience.

Investment Thesis

▲ Bull case

Red Rock Resorts is positioned to capitalize on significant long-term growth from its owned development pipeline and real estate bank, which includes over 450 acres of developed land in highly desirable Las Vegas Valley locations, providing a structural advantage in a market with high barriers to entry. This pipeline, combined with best-in-class assets in premier locations, enables the company to capitalize on favorable demographic trends and sustain its competitive edge in the Las Vegas locals market, a point underscored by management's emphasis on the resilience of their business model despite near-term headwinds like construction disruption and gas prices. The company's focus on core local guests, regional and national customer segments, and continued strength in Carter slot play, spend per visit, and net theoretical win across segments drove the highest first quarter gaming revenue and profitability in company history, indicating underlying demand strength that transcends temporary disruptions. Furthermore, the successful revenue backfill at core properties and Durango's expansion—adding over 25,000 square feet of casino space, a premier high limit slot area, and nearly 2,000 covered parking spaces—has validated the strategy of investing in premium slot and table offerings, with strong financial performance and positive guest feedback reinforcing Durango as a meaningful growth driver. The ongoing Durango North expansion, slated for summer 2027 opening at a $385 million cost, will add over 275,000 square feet including nearly 400 additional slot machines, a 36-lane bowling facility, luxury movie theaters, and new dining venues like the Moonshine Flats partnership, designed to broaden customer appeal and strengthen competitive position amid expected growth of over 6,000 new households within a 3-mile radius. This expansion, alongside investments at Sunset Station ($53 million podium refresh and $87 million next phase) and Green Valley Ranch ($56 million long-term redevelopment), reflects a disciplined capital allocation strategy that converts strong free cash flow—$107 million generated in Q1 FY26, or $1.03 per share—into long-term value, supporting dividends, share repurchases, and growth initiatives without overleveraging, as evidenced by a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 4.07x and management's comfort with leveraging up for right opportunities. The North Fork project, with an all-in cost of $750 million and expected early Q4 FY26 opening, is fully financed and projected to stabilize at $40–50 million in annual revenue, with management noting profitability from day one and a potentially shorter ramp than typical Las Vegas projects due to location, product quality, and team expertise, adding a significant near-term catalyst. Finally, the company's return of approximately $170.5 million to shareholders in Q1 FY26 through dividends and share repurchases demonstrates ongoing commitment to disciplined capital allocation and sustainable long-term value, reinforced by recognition as a top workplace and best large employer, which enhances operational stability and brand reputation in a competitive labor market.

Red Rock Resorts is positioned to capitalize on significant long-term growth from its owned development pipeline and real estate bank, which includes over 450 acres of developed land in highly desirable Las Vegas Valley locations, providing a structural advantage in a market with high barriers to entry. This pipeline, combined with best-in-class assets in premier locations, enables the company to capitalize on favorable demographic trends and sustain its competitive edge in the Las Vegas locals market, a point underscored by management's emphasis on the resilience of their business model despite near-term headwinds like construction disruption and gas prices. The company's focus on core local guests, regional and national customer segments, and continued strength in Carter slot play, spend per visit, and net theoretical win across segments drove the highest first quarter gaming revenue and profitability in company history, indicating underlying demand strength that transcends temporary disruptions. Furthermore, the successful revenue backfill at core properties and Durango's expansion—adding over 25,000 square feet of casino space, a premier high limit slot area, and nearly 2,000 covered parking spaces—has validated the strategy of investing in premium slot and table offerings, with strong financial performance and positive guest feedback reinforcing Durango as a meaningful growth driver. The ongoing Durango North expansion, slated for summer 2027 opening at a $385 million cost, will add over 275,000 square feet including nearly 400 additional slot machines, a 36-lane bowling facility, luxury movie theaters, and new dining venues like the Moonshine Flats partnership, designed to broaden customer appeal and strengthen competitive position amid expected growth of over 6,000 new households within a 3-mile radius. This expansion, alongside investments at Sunset Station ($53 million podium refresh and $87 million next phase) and Green Valley Ranch ($56 million long-term redevelopment), reflects a disciplined capital allocation strategy that converts strong free cash flow—$107 million generated in Q1 FY26, or $1.03 per share—into long-term value, supporting dividends, share repurchases, and growth initiatives without overleveraging, as evidenced by a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 4.07x and management's comfort with leveraging up for right opportunities. The North Fork project, with an all-in cost of $750 million and expected early Q4 FY26 opening, is fully financed and projected to stabilize at $40–50 million in annual revenue, with management noting profitability from day one and a potentially shorter ramp than typical Las Vegas projects due to location, product quality, and team expertise, adding a significant near-term catalyst. Finally, the company's return of approximately $170.5 million to shareholders in Q1 FY26 through dividends and share repurchases demonstrates ongoing commitment to disciplined capital allocation and sustainable long-term value, reinforced by recognition as a top workplace and best large employer, which enhances operational stability and brand reputation in a competitive labor market.

▼ Bear case

Red Rock Resorts faces persistent margin pressure and operational headwinds that management may be underestimating, as evidenced by the 113 basis point decline in Las Vegas operations adjusted EBITDA margin to 46.5% and a 129 basis point drop in consolidated margin to 41.9% year-over-year, with CFO Stephen Cootey attributing nearly half of this degradation to Green Valley Ranch hotel disruption—a situation exacerbated by ongoing East Tower renovations expected to extend into late summer 2026 and further work extending into 2027, suggesting prolonged operational inefficiency beyond transient effects. The company's reliance on disruption-related financial estimates—such as the $9 million quarterly impact at Green Valley Ranch and $2–3 million at Durango—reveals a pattern of recurring construction-related earnings drag, with management acknowledging that Durango-related disruption will persist "pretty much through the summer to the completion of the project" (summer 2027), implying multi-year earnings volatility that could obscure true underlying performance and deter investor confidence in margin stability. Despite strong gaming revenue growth, the company's selling, general and administrative expenses rose 9.2% year-over-year to $114.4 million, outpacing revenue growth and indicating potential inefficiencies in scaling operations, while the conversion of adjusted EBITDA to operating free cash flow remained modest at 50.3%, generating only $107 million in Q1 FY26 despite $212.6 million in adjusted EBITDA, suggesting significant reinvestment needs or working capital strains that limit immediate shareholder returns. The balance sheet reveals elevated leverage, with total debt principal at $3.6 billion and net debt of $3.4 billion, resulting in a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 4.07x—a level that, while deemed manageable by management, leaves little room for error in a cyclical industry and constrains financial flexibility amid rising interest rates, especially given that interest expense, though down four consecutive quarters, remains a substantial $49.5 million quarterly outflow. Furthermore, the North Fork project, while expected to be profitable from day one, carries execution risk in a competitive mid-California market with three existing properties, and management's own comparison to a typical Las Vegas ramp of two years—despite hopes for a shorter timeline—introduces uncertainty about revenue realization timing, particularly given the project's $750 million all-in cost and the company's history of cautious greenfield development, where Lorenzo Fertitta admitted they "sit back down and start over again" when plans aren't perfect, signaling potential delays and cost overruns. Finally, the company's dependence on discretionary spending, highlighted by Scott Kreeger's acknowledgment that food and beverage performance is a "bellwether" for customer health, exposes it to macroeconomic vulnerabilities such as persistent inflation, higher energy costs, and unemployment impacts on consumer demand—factors explicitly called out in the earnings call as risks that could materially affect discretionary spending, yet were downplayed in responses to questions about gas prices and air travel disruption, suggesting a potential gap between management's optimism and the resilience of their customer base in a weakening economic environment.

Red Rock Resorts faces persistent margin pressure and operational headwinds that management may be underestimating, as evidenced by the 113 basis point decline in Las Vegas operations adjusted EBITDA margin to 46.5% and a 129 basis point drop in consolidated margin to 41.9% year-over-year, with CFO Stephen Cootey attributing nearly half of this degradation to Green Valley Ranch hotel disruption—a situation exacerbated by ongoing East Tower renovations expected to extend into late summer 2026 and further work extending into 2027, suggesting prolonged operational inefficiency beyond transient effects. The company's reliance on disruption-related financial estimates—such as the $9 million quarterly impact at Green Valley Ranch and $2–3 million at Durango—reveals a pattern of recurring construction-related earnings drag, with management acknowledging that Durango-related disruption will persist "pretty much through the summer to the completion of the project" (summer 2027), implying multi-year earnings volatility that could obscure true underlying performance and deter investor confidence in margin stability. Despite strong gaming revenue growth, the company's selling, general and administrative expenses rose 9.2% year-over-year to $114.4 million, outpacing revenue growth and indicating potential inefficiencies in scaling operations, while the conversion of adjusted EBITDA to operating free cash flow remained modest at 50.3%, generating only $107 million in Q1 FY26 despite $212.6 million in adjusted EBITDA, suggesting significant reinvestment needs or working capital strains that limit immediate shareholder returns. The balance sheet reveals elevated leverage, with total debt principal at $3.6 billion and net debt of $3.4 billion, resulting in a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 4.07x—a level that, while deemed manageable by management, leaves little room for error in a cyclical industry and constrains financial flexibility amid rising interest rates, especially given that interest expense, though down four consecutive quarters, remains a substantial $49.5 million quarterly outflow. Furthermore, the North Fork project, while expected to be profitable from day one, carries execution risk in a competitive mid-California market with three existing properties, and management's own comparison to a typical Las Vegas ramp of two years—despite hopes for a shorter timeline—introduces uncertainty about revenue realization timing, particularly given the project's $750 million all-in cost and the company's history of cautious greenfield development, where Lorenzo Fertitta admitted they "sit back down and start over again" when plans aren't perfect, signaling potential delays and cost overruns. Finally, the company's dependence on discretionary spending, highlighted by Scott Kreeger's acknowledgment that food and beverage performance is a "bellwether" for customer health, exposes it to macroeconomic vulnerabilities such as persistent inflation, higher energy costs, and unemployment impacts on consumer demand—factors explicitly called out in the earnings call as risks that could materially affect discretionary spending, yet were downplayed in responses to questions about gas prices and air travel disruption, suggesting a potential gap between management's optimism and the resilience of their customer base in a weakening economic environment.

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Peer Comparison

Companies in the Resorts & Casinos

S.No.	Ticker	Company	Market Cap	P/E	P/S	Total Debt (Qtr)
1	LVS	Las Vegas Sands Corp	30.75 Bn	14.65	2.24	15.72 Bn
2	MGM	MGM Resorts International	11.68 Bn	24.90	0.66	6.40 Bn
3	WYNN	Wynn Resorts Ltd	9.99 Bn	20.88	1.37	11.07 Bn
4	BYD	Boyd Gaming Corp	6.73 Bn	2.93	1.64	2.27 Bn
5	MLCO	Melco Resorts & Entertainment LTD	6.48 Bn	33.52	27.42	6.67 Bn
6	CZR	Caesars Entertainment, Inc.	6.11 Bn	-14.48	0.53	12.03 Bn
7	MTN	Vail Resorts Inc	5.23 Bn	28.84	1.85	3.02 Bn
8	HGV	Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.	4.01 Bn	22.41	0.77	4.76 Bn

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Investment Thesis

Product and Service Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Peer Comparison

Research Tools

Developers

About

Investment Thesis

Product and Service Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Peer Comparison

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