Vail Resorts Inc (NYSE: MTN)

Sector: Consumer Cyclical Industry: Resorts & Casinos CIK: 0000812011
Market Cap 4.91 Bn
P/B 6.59
P/E 196.79
P/S 4.35
ROIC (Qtr) 11.55
Div Yield % 2.21
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 4.13
Total Debt (Qtr) 3.38 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 21.63
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About

Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) is a prominent player in the mountain resort and ski industry, with a diverse portfolio of world-class mountain resorts and regional ski areas. The company's operations span across three reportable segments: Mountain, Lodging, and Real Estate, with the Mountain segment being the largest contributor to its revenue, accounting for approximately 88% of its net revenue in Fiscal 2023. The Mountain segment operates 41 destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas, offering a comprehensive resort experience to a diverse...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Operating cash flow of 588.39M provides exceptional 34.66x coverage of minority interest expenses 16.98M, showing strong core operations.
  • Operating cash flow of 588.39M provides strong 17.56x coverage of stock compensation 33.51M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Robust free cash flow of 364.92M exceeds capital expenditure of 223.47M by 1.63x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.
  • Cash position of 600.59M provides exceptional 35.38x coverage of minority interest expenses 16.98M, indicating strong liquidity.
  • Operating cash flow of 588.39M fully covers other non-current liabilities 564.26M by 1.04x, showing strong long-term stability.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 588.39M barely covers its investment activities of (205.16M), with a coverage ratio of -2.87, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 588.39M provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (324.84M) with a -1.81 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Operating earnings of 548.90M show weak coverage of depreciation charges of 297.92M, with a 1.84 ratio indicating high capital intensity and potential reinvestment needs.
  • High depreciation of 297.92M relative to operating cash flow of 588.39M, which is 0.51x suggests significant maintenance capital requirements affecting free cash flow.
  • Retained earnings of 452.10M provide limited buffer against comprehensive income items of (61.73M), which is -7.32x, indicating elevated exposure to market risks.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Resorts & Casinos
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 LVS Las Vegas Sands Corp 39.82 Bn 24.48 3.06 15.78 Bn
2 WYNN Wynn Resorts Ltd 20.12 Bn 2,860.00 4.09 12.20 Bn
3 MGM MGM Resorts International 9.16 Bn 44.51 0.52 31.26 Bn
4 BYD Boyd Gaming Corp 8.33 Bn -92.47 2.92 2.46 Bn
5 MTN Vail Resorts Inc 4.91 Bn 196.79 4.35 3.38 Bn
6 HGV Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. 4.44 Bn 83.82 0.89 7.28 Bn
7 CZR Caesars Entertainment, Inc. 3.93 Bn -7.83 0.34 24.88 Bn
8 RRR Red Rock Resorts, Inc. 3.66 Bn 20.78 2.12 3.41 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.96 1.18
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 27.20 39.36
EV to Debt EV to Debt 1.64 32.02
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 64.02 44.55
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 25.21 19.91
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 49.89 -82.04
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.13 4.40
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 4.93 4.33
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 6.59 3.49
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 196.79 199.09
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 0.82 2.40
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 126.90 38.73
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 8.88 1.07
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 87.32 21.58
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 3.04 -1.90
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) 2.20 7.02
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 43.53 3.69
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 1.83 6.21
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 13.29 -15.96
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 4.51 -13.29
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 9.87 -1.32
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 10.58 -10.90
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 14.01 9.03
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 15.93 81.04
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 2.20 4.33
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.52 0.49
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.40 0.11
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.31 0.59
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 0.54 0.90
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 21.63 4.57
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 3.04 -1.90
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 3.04 -1.90
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 28.50 18.45
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 18.45 11.71
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 12.37 4.06
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 28.10 47.91
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 8.90 2.46