Qfin Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: QFIN)

Sector: Financial Services Industry: Credit Services CIK: 0001741530
Market Cap 2.61 Bn
P/B 0.77
P/E 2.70
P/S 0.95
ROIC (Qtr) 141.48
Div Yield % 7.69
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 19.12
Total Debt (Qtr) 888.54 Mn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.26

About

Qifu Technology, Inc., also known as QFIN, operates as a Credit-Tech platform in China, providing a comprehensive suite of technology services to financial institutions, consumers, and small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the loan lifecycle. Established in 2016 and headquartered in Shanghai, China, the company's primary business activities include providing credit-driven services, platform services, and other technology solutions. QFIN generates revenue primarily through service fees charged to financial institution partners for facilitating...

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Price action

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Strong operating cash flow of 1.54B provides robust 1.74x coverage of total debt 888.54M, indicating excellent debt servicing capability and financial flexibility.
  • Healthy cash reserves of 1.35B provide 6.45x coverage of short-term debt 209.52M, demonstrating strong liquidity position and minimal refinancing risk.
  • Strong tangible asset base of 8.49B provides 9.55x coverage of total debt 888.54M, indicating robust asset backing and low credit risk.
  • Strong operating cash flow of 1.54B provides 3.52x coverage of SG&A expenses 437.52M, showing efficient operational cost management.
  • Robust free cash flow of 1.52B exceeds capital expenditure of 21.51M by 70.70x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 1.54B barely covers its investment activities of (1.83B), with a coverage ratio of -0.84, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Short-term investments of 5.55B significantly exceed cash reserves of 1.35B, which is 4.11x, indicating potentially excessive yield-seeking behavior at the expense of liquidity.
  • Long-term investments of 382.67M represent a high 4.73x of fixed assets 80.86M, indicating potential overexposure to financial assets versus operational capabilities.
  • Operating cash flow of 1.54B shows concerning coverage of minority interest expenses of (2.05M), which is -753.55x, suggesting complex corporate structure risks.
  • Short-term investments of 5.55B represent 1.08x of working capital 5.14B, suggesting potentially excessive financial asset allocation versus operational needs.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Credit Services
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 V Visa Inc. 685.45 Bn 34.17 17.14 25.17 Bn
2 MA Mastercard Inc 520.38 Bn 36.52 16.53 18.98 Bn
3 AXP American Express Co 266.36 Bn 25.27 4.08 59.23 Bn
4 COF Capital One Financial Corp 111.93 Bn 102.41 3.87 51.48 Bn
5 PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc. 58.35 Bn 11.87 1.78 11.28 Bn
6 SYF Synchrony Financial 32.00 Bn 9.16 3.32 14.43 Bn
7 SOFI SoFi Technologies, Inc. 29.56 Bn 46.17 8.90 2.81 Bn
8 ALLY Ally Financial Inc. 14.44 Bn 52.52 1.83 20.63 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets -0.08 1.03
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO -0.45 4.72
EV to Debt EV to Debt -0.79 2.99
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT -0.61 -246.63
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA -0.67 -62.30
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF -0.46 7.33
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap -0.27 10.21
EV to Revenue EV/Rev -0.25 10.01
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 0.77 3.47
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 2.70 13.86
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Dividend Coverage Ratio 0.00 1.59
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 20.80 2.22
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 1.46 0.68
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 1.77 4.82
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 0.00 -64.96
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -81.13 -85.80
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 47.13 7.91
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 23.73 5.47
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 26.14 16.85
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA Growth (1y) % 0.00 -0.69
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 11.82 33.67
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 11.82 1.73
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 39.27 -64.54
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 26.51 129.37
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 17.67 18.73
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.04 0.23
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout Ratio 0.00 0.05
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.51 0.46
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 2.94 1.05
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.26 4.88
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 0.00 -64.96
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 0.00 -64.96
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % 0.00 -17.83
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 296.90 125.65
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 41.70 -9.92
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 82.00 72.34
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 35.10 -23.76