Qudian Inc. (QD) Stock Analysis and Metrics

Sector: Financial Services Industry: Credit Services CIK: 0001692705

Market Cap 619.42 Mn

P/B 0.37

P/E 5.48

P/S 48.98

ROIC (Qtr) -22.86

Div Yield % 0.00

Rev 1y % (Qtr) -84.51

Total Debt (Qtr) 222.84 Mn

Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.13

About

Qudian Inc. (QD), a consumer-oriented technology company based in China, operates in various sectors, including last-mile delivery, aircraft leasing, credit, e-commerce, and early childhood education. The company has established a significant presence in the Chinese consumer finance market, boasting a robust brand reputation and a substantial customer base. Qudian Inc.'s primary business activities revolve around providing credit solutions and logistics services. Initially, the company focused on catering to college students in China, but it has...

Qudian Inc. (QD), a consumer-oriented technology company based in China, operates in various sectors, including last-mile delivery, aircraft leasing, credit, e-commerce, and early childhood education. The company has established a significant presence in the Chinese consumer finance market, boasting a robust brand reputation and a substantial customer base.

Qudian Inc.'s primary business activities revolve around providing credit solutions and logistics services. Initially, the company focused on catering to college students in China, but it has since expanded its reach to serve a broader base of young consumers. In addition, the company has ventured into e-commerce and early childhood education, further diversifying its offerings.

The company generates revenue through its credit business, which primarily involves financing income, loan facilitation income, and other related income from cash credit products. Furthermore, Qudian Inc. derives revenue from its e-commerce business, which includes sales income from the QD Food business, educational services income from the Wanlimu Kids Clubs business, and transaction services fee and other related income from the company's transaction services business.

In the Chinese consumer finance market, Qudian Inc. is a prominent player, vying with other industry leaders. The company's competitive advantages include its strong brand reputation, extensive network of physical stores, and its ability to provide a wide range of financial products and services.

Qudian Inc.'s customers encompass logistics companies, e-commerce platforms, and other businesses requiring logistics and e-commerce services. Additionally, the company's aircraft leasing business serves third-party companies in need of aircraft leasing services, while its early childhood education business caters to parents and young children seeking early childhood education services.

Regarding its product and service offerings, Qudian Inc.'s brand names and trade names include "Qufenqi," a prominent name in the Chinese consumer finance market. In the e-commerce sector, the company operates under the QD Food, Wanlimu Kids Clubs, and transaction services brands.

Price action

Investment thesis

Bull case

Healthy cash reserves of 1.20B provide 5.39x coverage of short-term debt 222.29M, demonstrating strong liquidity position and minimal refinancing risk.
Strong tangible asset base of 1.96B provides 8.79x coverage of total debt 222.84M, indicating robust asset backing and low credit risk.
Retained earnings of 1.34B provide full 2465.60x coverage of long-term debt 543539.33, indicating strong internal capital position.
Long-term investments of 31.36M provide solid 57.70x coverage of long-term debt 543539.33, indicating strategic financial planning.
Short-term investments of 394.10M provide solid 6.78x coverage of other current liabilities 58.13M, indicating strong liquidity.

Bear case

Investment activities of 0 provide weak support for R&D spending of 6.79M, which is 0x, suggesting potentially insufficient investment in innovation relative to other capital deployment.
Short-term investments of 394.10M exceed receivables of 909971.91 by 433.09x, indicating potentially inefficient capital allocation given collection cycle needs.
Retained earnings of 1.34B provide limited buffer against comprehensive income items of (3.67M), which is -364.74x, indicating elevated exposure to market risks.
Operating cash flow of 0 provides minimal 0x coverage of tax expenses of 4.71M, suggesting potential tax planning inefficiencies or unsustainable tax positions.
Tax assets of 0 provide limited offset against tax liabilities of 7.47M, which is 0x, indicating potential future cash flow pressure from tax obligations.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Credit Services

S.No.	Ticker	Company	Market Cap	P/E	P/S	Total Debt (Qtr)
1	V	Visa Inc.	685.45 Bn	34.17	17.14	25.17 Bn
2	MA	Mastercard Inc	520.38 Bn	36.52	16.53	18.98 Bn
3	AXP	American Express Co	266.36 Bn	25.27	4.08	59.23 Bn
4	COF	Capital One Financial Corp	111.93 Bn	102.41	3.87	51.48 Bn
5	PYPL	PayPal Holdings, Inc.	58.35 Bn	11.87	1.78	11.28 Bn
6	SYF	Synchrony Financial	32.00 Bn	9.16	3.32	14.43 Bn
7	SOFI	SoFi Technologies, Inc.	29.56 Bn	46.17	8.90	2.81 Bn
8	ALLY	Ally Financial Inc.	14.44 Bn	52.52	1.83	20.63 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation	Value	Ind Avg
EV to Assets EV to Assets	-0.03	1.03
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO	3.75	4.72
EV to Debt EV to Debt	-0.26	2.99
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT	-0.48	-246.63
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA	1.65	-62.30
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF	0.97	7.33
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap	-0.09	10.21
EV to Revenue EV/Rev	-4.51	10.01
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B	0.37	3.47
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E	5.48	13.86

Dividend Metrics	Value	Ind Avg	Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Dividend Coverage Ratio	0.00	1.59
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr)	0.00	2.22
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr)	0.00	0.68
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr)	0.00	4.82
Interest Coverage Interest Coverage	0.00	-64.96

Growth Metrics	Value	Ind Avg
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr)	0.00	-85.80
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr)	51.59	7.91
Dividend Growth (1y) % Dividend Growth (1y) %	0.00	5.47
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr)	1,863.48	16.85
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr)	0.00	-0.69
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr)	977.48	33.67
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr)	977.48	1.73
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr)	1,058.14	-64.54
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr)	0.00	129.37
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr)	281.01	18.73

Liquidity Ratios	Value	Ind Avg
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr)	0.00	0.23
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout Ratio	0.00	0.05
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr)	4.27	0.46
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr)	5.83	1.05
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr)	0.13	4.88
Interest Cover Ratio Interest Cover Ratio	0.00	-64.96
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned	0.00	-64.96

Profitability	Value	Ind Avg
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr)	0.00	-17.83
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr)	6,633.93	125.65
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr)	931.73	-9.92
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr)	7.20	72.34
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr)	894.50	-23.76

Qudian Inc. (NYSE: QD)

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