D-Wave Quantum
NYSE: QBTS
$18.67 ▼ -1.42  (-7.07%)
At close: Jul 13, 2026 · 3:59 PM UTC
Financial Ratios
Market Cap8.64 Bn
P/E-80.41
P/S694.25
Div. Yield0.00
Total Debt (Qtr)35.56 Mn
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About

D-Wave Quantum Inc. develops and delivers quantum computing systems software and related services. The company was the world’s first commercial supplier of quantum computers and remains the only firm building both annealing and gate model quantum computers. Its superconducting quantum processors provide sub second response times and can be installed on premises or accessed through the Leap quantum cloud service which offers 99.9% availability. Customers apply the…

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Sector: Technology Industry: Computer Hardware CIK: 0001907982

Investment Thesis

▲ Bull case
  • D-Wave's dual-platform advantage as the only company offering both annealing and gate-model quantum computing systems provides a unique position to capture the full addressable quantum computing market, which Boston Consulting Group projects to exceed $800 billion, with annealing alone representing a $100 billion to $220 billion opportunity comparable to the global semiconductor equipment and cybersecurity markets, and this structural leadership is underappreciated by investors focused solely on near-term revenue volatility.
  • The company's dual-rail gate-model technology represents a revolutionary advancement in quantum error correction, with built-in erasure detection identifying roughly 90% of errors as they occur at an observed rate of just 0.5%, enabling greater than 99.9% fidelity while reducing the physical qubits needed for a logical qubit by up to an order of magnitude, a technological leap that could accelerate its path to 100 logical qubits by 2032 and position it to capture significant share of the gate-model market despite near-term R&D investments.
  • Recent commercial momentum is translating into measurable business outcomes, with first-quarter 2026 bookings surging nearly 2,000% year-over-year to $33.4 million driven by landmark deals including a $20 million system sale to Florida Atlantic University and the industry's first $10 million enterprise quantum computing as a Service agreement, signaling that the sales pipeline is strengthening and converting to revenue as system delivery expectations increase to 2-3 units annually.
  • Strategic government endorsements, including the $100 million Letter of Intent under the U.S. CHIPS and Science Act and second-year funding for the SQFab project through NORDTECH, validate D-Wave's technological leadership in both annealing and gate-model systems while providing non-dilutive resources to accelerate R&D at facilities in Boca Raton, New Haven, and Burnaby, de-risking its capital-intensive scaling plans.
  • Expanding applications beyond optimization into quantum AI and blockchain demonstrate real-world traction, exemplified by Shionogi's multistage project using D-Wave's annealing systems to achieve a tenfold increase in desirable drug-like molecules versus classical methods and the live quantum-classical blockchain testNet with over 18,500 participants and 1,600 nodes where D-Wave's Advantage2 QPU is currently outperforming classical nodes, positioning the company as an early mover in high-growth adjacencies.
▼ Bear case
  • D-Wave's first-quarter 2026 revenue declined 81% year-over-year to $2.9 million, primarily due to the absence of a large system sale comparable to the prior year's $12.6 million annealing system transaction, highlighting the lumpy and unpredictable nature of its enterprise sales cycle despite management's optimism about securing 2-3 system deals annually.
  • Operating expenses surged 125% year-over-year to $56.5 million in Q1 2026, driven by $9.1 million in nonrecurring costs from the Quantum Circuits acquisition, $8.6 million in increased salaries (80% tied to sales and marketing and R&D), and $7.4 million in noncash expenses, resulting in a GAAP net loss of $18.4 million and raising concerns about the sustainability of its investment pace relative to revenue generation.
  • While the company targets 100 logical qubits by 2032, its near-term gate-model progress remains nascent, with only 8 operational qubits currently and plans to reach 175 physical qubits by end-2028 to demonstrate error correction, meaning commercial gate-model revenue is unlikely before 2030, leaving the annealing business as the sole near-term revenue driver despite its smaller addressable market relative to gate-model.
  • The annealing market, though sized at $100 billion to $220 billion by BCG, faces increasing competitive pressure as gate-model companies explore annealing-type protocols within their systems and early-stage entrants develop small-scale annealing quantum computers, potentially eroding D-Wave's first-mover advantage in a niche it claims is misunderstood by competitors.
  • Revenue recognition complexity for system sales—where revenue is split between upfront delivery and multiyear service components—combined with the fact that only 54% of the $42.4 million first-quarter RPO balance is expected to convert to revenue within 12 months, creates near-term revenue visibility challenges despite strong bookings growth.

Geographical Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Product and Service Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Peer Comparison

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