Paychex Inc (NASDAQ: PAYX)

Sector: Technology Industry: Software - Application CIK: 0000723531
Market Cap 40.98 Bn
P/B 10.56
P/E 25.68
P/S 6.79
ROIC (Qtr) 18.99
Div Yield % 3.71
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 18.28
Total Debt (Qtr) 5.04 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 1.30

About

Paychex Inc. (PAYX) operates in the human capital management (HCM) industry, providing a comprehensive suite of technology and advisory services to small- and medium-sized businesses across the United States and parts of Europe. The company's offerings cater to the needs of these businesses, helping them navigate the complexities of HR, payroll, benefits, and insurance. Paychex's main business activities involve providing a full range of HCM solutions, including human resources, employee benefit solutions, insurance, and payroll processing. The...

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Price action

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Strong operating cash flow of 2.22B provides robust 0.44x coverage of total debt 5.04B, indicating excellent debt servicing capability and financial flexibility.
  • Healthy cash reserves of 1.54B provide 3.67x coverage of short-term debt 418.10M, demonstrating strong liquidity position and minimal refinancing risk.
  • Operating cash flow of 2.22B provides strong 16.94x coverage of stock compensation 131.20M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Tangible assets of 10.18B provide exceptional 144.39x coverage of deferred revenue 70.50M, showing strong service capability backing.
  • Robust free cash flow of 2B exceeds capital expenditure of 227.20M by 8.78x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 2.22B barely covers its investment activities of (3.98B), with a coverage ratio of -0.56, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 2.22B provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (1.52B) with a -1.46 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Cash reserves of 1.54B provide limited coverage of acquisition spending of (2.97B), which is -0.52x, suggesting aggressive expansion might strain liquidity if market conditions deteriorate.
  • Tax assets of 56.80M provide limited offset against tax liabilities of 706.80M, which is 0.08x, indicating potential future cash flow pressure from tax obligations.
  • Retained earnings of 1.95B provide limited buffer against comprehensive income items of (17.60M), which is -110.80x, indicating elevated exposure to market risks.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Software - Application
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 SAP Sap Se 288.31 Bn 34.60 6.72 10.73 Bn
2 CRM Salesforce, Inc. 248.32 Bn 34.38 6.16 11.14 Bn
3 SHOP Shopify Inc. 212.27 Bn 119.19 19.85 1.12 Bn
4 INTU Intuit Inc. 180.73 Bn 43.89 9.30 6.78 Bn
5 UBER Uber Technologies, Inc 178.38 Bn 10.72 3.60 12.19 Bn
6 NOW ServiceNow, Inc. 146.98 Bn 84.91 11.60 2.40 Bn
7 ADBE Adobe Inc. 144.48 Bn 20.77 6.23 6.64 Bn
8 ADP Automatic Data Processing Inc 108.20 Bn 26.16 5.18 9.77 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 2.73 2.65
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 20.31 13.37
EV to Debt EV to Debt 8.96 57.69
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 19.33 19.12
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 17.47 15.00
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 22.62 14.69
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.10 -92.28
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 7.48 4.60
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 10.56 4.26
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 25.68 -136.90
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 1.05 -3.95
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 95.30 4.25
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 4.22 0.15
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 75.99 2.52
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 9.64 -52.32
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -38.03 -259.78
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 21.43 9,763.58
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 10.18 1.61
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 1.02 -263.15
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 8.23 56.46
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 1.16 -225.15
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) -7.06 -86.10
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) -7.32 123.84
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 27.14 -36.82
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 14.81 95.08
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.37 0.58
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.62 0.02
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.22 3.75
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 1.27 8.16
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 1.30 0.17
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 9.64 -52.32
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 9.64 -52.32
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 44.50 -100.06
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 38.70 -164.24
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 34.68 -116.94
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 73.40 58.20
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 26.40 -121.65