ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS) Stock Analysis and Metrics

ONE Gas

NYSE: OGS

$78.89 ▲ +0.06 (+0.08%)

At close: Jul 10, 2026 · 2:44 PM UTC

Financial Ratios

Market Cap4.80 Bn

P/E17.54

P/S2.06

Div. Yield0.03

ROIC (Qtr)0.00

Total Debt (Qtr)2.38 Bn

Revenue Growth (1y) (Qtr)-11.07

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About

ONE Gas, Inc. operates as a regulated public utility delivering natural gas to residential, commercial and transportation customers in Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas. The company is subject to oversight by the Oklahoma Corporation Commission, the Kansas Corporation Commission and the Railroad Commission of Texas. It provides transportation services that move gas through its pipeline system for third parties. ONE Gas, Inc. earns revenue from natural gas sales, transportation revenues, securitization customer charges and other miscellaneous service charges. Its operations are governed by rate regulated frameworks that allow recovery of costs and provide a return on investment. The company focuses on maintaining safe, reliable and efficient service through ongoing capital investments in pipeline integrity and system expansion.

ONE Gas, Inc. generates revenue primarily from the sale and delivery of natural gas to its customers. For the 9 months ended September 30, 2025, natural gas sales amounted to $1,567.2 million, transportation revenues totaled $105.8 million, securitization customer charges reached $36.0 million and other revenues were $29.1 million, resulting in total revenues of $1,738.1 million. Natural gas sales include fixed charges that do not vary with usage and variable charges that fluctuate with delivered volumes and weather normalization effects. Transportation revenues arise from contracts with customers for moving gas through the company's pipeline network. Securitization customer charges relate to the financing order approved by the Kansas Corporation Commission for recovery of extraordinary costs from Winter Storm Uri. Other revenues consist mainly of miscellaneous service charges established by tariffs and regulatory mechanisms. The company serves residential, commercial, industrial and transportation customer classes across its service territories.

The company operates through the following segments.

• Regulated public utilities: This segment delivers natural gas to residential, commercial and transportation customers and includes all regulated operations in Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas.

ONE Gas, Inc. holds a stable position in the natural gas distribution industry as a rate regulated utility operating in Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas. The company benefits from a large residential customer base that provides predictable demand and a fixed charge component of revenue that stabilizes cash flow. Its competitive advantages include regulatory mechanisms that permit recovery of prudently incurred costs and reduce earnings lag between rate cases. ONE Gas, Inc. also leverages its scale and integrated operations across three states to achieve operational efficiencies. The company faces competition from alternative energy sources such as electricity, solar, wind and geothermal energy, which may affect long term demand for natural gas. Additionally, it contends with other gas utilities and energy providers in its service areas.

ONE Gas, Inc. serves residential, commercial, industrial and transportation customers in Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas. For the 9 months ended September 30, 2025, the average number of residential customers was 849,000 in Oklahoma, 597,000 in Kansas and 673,000 in Texas, totaling approximately 2,119,000. Commercial and industrial customer counts averaged 77,000 in Oklahoma, 51,000 in Kansas and 35,000 in Texas, summing to about 163,000. Transportation customer counts averaged 5,000 in Oklahoma, 5,000 in Kansas and 1,000 in Texas, for a total of 11,000. Overall, the company had an average of roughly 2,296,000 customers during the period.

Investment Thesis

▲ Bull case

ONE Gas demonstrates robust financial resilience through disciplined execution of its long-term plan, evidenced by adjusted EPS growth of 6% year-over-year in Q1 FY26 despite facing one of the warmest winters in its service territory's history. This outperformance was driven by effective weather normalization mechanisms, new rate implementations, and the beneficial impact of Texas House Bill 4384, which collectively offset weather-related headwinds. The company's ability to generate $98 million in savings from its expanded storage capacity—20% increase since Winter Storm Uri—highlights proactive infrastructure investments that enhance customer affordability and protect margins during extreme weather events. Furthermore, the company affirmed its full-year guidance of $306 million to $314 million in adjusted net income and $4.83 to $4.95 in adjusted EPS, signaling management's confidence in overcoming near-term volatility through structural advantages like regulated rate recovery and operational efficiencies.
Strategic growth initiatives in large-load customer opportunities present a significant, underappreciated catalyst for future earnings expansion. ONE Gas has six projects in late-stage discussions that could collectively support up to 3 gigawatts of generation and 1 Bcf per day of demand, including a recently signed transportation agreement to supply 20 million cubic feet of natural gas daily to an Oklahoma data center. These capital-light, transport-only projects are immediately accretive due to minimal infrastructure requirements and leverage the existing system to generate predictable, fee-based revenue without exposing the company to commodity price risk. Management emphasized that such opportunities align with its long-term strategy of fostering economic development while derisking customer impact, and they are positioned to fill incremental growth buckets in the latter years of its 5-year plan, potentially exceeding current capital allocation assumptions as commercialization timelines unfold.
Regulatory progress across all three service territories provides a durable and predictable earnings foundation, with multiple rate mechanisms advancing ahead of schedule. Oklahoma Natural Gas filed for a $28.7 million annual performance-based rate change effective late June, Texas Gas Service secured a $36.9 million reliability infrastructure program filing set for July implementation, and Kansas Gas Service is poised to file its updated Gas System Reliability Surcharge (GSRS) in Q3 FY26 following statutory amendments that expand recoverable investments and increase the maximum residential surcharge to $1.35 from $0.80. These filings reflect successful navigation of state-level regulatory frameworks and underscore the company's ability to recover prudently incurred capital investments through timely, formulaic rate adjustments—reducing reliance on costly, infrequent full rate cases. The absence of any planned full rate cases until Oklahoma's 2027 filing further indicates regulatory stability and predictable cash flow visibility, supporting consistent dividend growth and shareholder returns.

ONE Gas demonstrates robust financial resilience through disciplined execution of its long-term plan, evidenced by adjusted EPS growth of 6% year-over-year in Q1 FY26 despite facing one of the warmest winters in its service territory's history. This outperformance was driven by effective weather normalization mechanisms, new rate implementations, and the beneficial impact of Texas House Bill 4384, which collectively offset weather-related headwinds. The company's ability to generate $98 million in savings from its expanded storage capacity—20% increase since Winter Storm Uri—highlights proactive infrastructure investments that enhance customer affordability and protect margins during extreme weather events. Furthermore, the company affirmed its full-year guidance of $306 million to $314 million in adjusted net income and $4.83 to $4.95 in adjusted EPS, signaling management's confidence in overcoming near-term volatility through structural advantages like regulated rate recovery and operational efficiencies.
Strategic growth initiatives in large-load customer opportunities present a significant, underappreciated catalyst for future earnings expansion. ONE Gas has six projects in late-stage discussions that could collectively support up to 3 gigawatts of generation and 1 Bcf per day of demand, including a recently signed transportation agreement to supply 20 million cubic feet of natural gas daily to an Oklahoma data center. These capital-light, transport-only projects are immediately accretive due to minimal infrastructure requirements and leverage the existing system to generate predictable, fee-based revenue without exposing the company to commodity price risk. Management emphasized that such opportunities align with its long-term strategy of fostering economic development while derisking customer impact, and they are positioned to fill incremental growth buckets in the latter years of its 5-year plan, potentially exceeding current capital allocation assumptions as commercialization timelines unfold.
Regulatory progress across all three service territories provides a durable and predictable earnings foundation, with multiple rate mechanisms advancing ahead of schedule. Oklahoma Natural Gas filed for a $28.7 million annual performance-based rate change effective late June, Texas Gas Service secured a $36.9 million reliability infrastructure program filing set for July implementation, and Kansas Gas Service is poised to file its updated Gas System Reliability Surcharge (GSRS) in Q3 FY26 following statutory amendments that expand recoverable investments and increase the maximum residential surcharge to $1.35 from $0.80. These filings reflect successful navigation of state-level regulatory frameworks and underscore the company's ability to recover prudently incurred capital investments through timely, formulaic rate adjustments—reducing reliance on costly, infrequent full rate cases. The absence of any planned full rate cases until Oklahoma's 2027 filing further indicates regulatory stability and predictable cash flow visibility, supporting consistent dividend growth and shareholder returns.

▼ Bear case

ONE Gas faces material near-term earnings pressure from anomalously warm weather patterns that are not fully mitigated by existing weather normalization mechanisms, as evidenced by Q1 FY26 results where 25% warmer-than-prior-year temperatures impacted cash flows despite regulatory safeguards. The company acknowledged that while capacity release benefits from oversupplied storage will emerge later in the year, the immediate effect included reduced gas monetization from storage and higher spring storage balances, which will suppress refill-season injections and create a temporary drag on operating cash flow. This structural delay in recognizing weather-related benefits means earnings recovery is back-half weighted, increasing execution risk if subsequent quarters face additional volatility or if regulatory lag extends the timeline for benefit realization, potentially pressuring full-year guidance achievement despite management's affirmation.
Rising operational costs, particularly in O&M, pose a persistent threat to margin expansion, with Q1 FY26 O&M expenses increasing 8.6% year-over-year—significantly above the prior year's 1.9% growth and exceeding the long-term 3–4% compound annual target outlined in the 5-year plan. This acceleration was driven by elevated employee-related costs and a surge in line-locating activity tied to third-party fiber installations, suggesting external macroeconomic forces are inflating necessary safety and compliance expenditures. While management cites in-sourcing initiatives like the Watch and Protect program and AI-driven automation as offsetting measures, the benefits—such as the 12,000 hours of annualized labor savings from one process improvement—are incremental and may not scale sufficiently to counteract systemic cost pressures, especially if wage inflation or regulatory mandates continue to elevate base operating expenses without commensurate rate relief.
The company's growth strategy remains heavily dependent on uncertain, customer-driven large-load projects that lack binding commitments and transparent financial quantification, creating execution and timing risks that could undermine long-term expectations. Although ONE Gas cites six late-stage discussions representing up to 1 Bcf/day of potential demand, Curtis Dinan explicitly noted that individual projects like the 20 Mcf/day data center agreement are not quantified for shareholder benefit and are only included in guidance as they materialize—indicating a reactive rather than proactive growth approach. Furthermore, these transport-only arrangements avoid gas sales exposure but also limit upside to fixed fees, meaning revenue predictability is contingent on customer contract finalization and project completion timelines, which are subject to macroeconomic shifts in manufacturing, data center development, and utility generation trends—factors outside ONE Gas's control that could delay or derail anticipated capital-light growth contributions.

ONE Gas faces material near-term earnings pressure from anomalously warm weather patterns that are not fully mitigated by existing weather normalization mechanisms, as evidenced by Q1 FY26 results where 25% warmer-than-prior-year temperatures impacted cash flows despite regulatory safeguards. The company acknowledged that while capacity release benefits from oversupplied storage will emerge later in the year, the immediate effect included reduced gas monetization from storage and higher spring storage balances, which will suppress refill-season injections and create a temporary drag on operating cash flow. This structural delay in recognizing weather-related benefits means earnings recovery is back-half weighted, increasing execution risk if subsequent quarters face additional volatility or if regulatory lag extends the timeline for benefit realization, potentially pressuring full-year guidance achievement despite management's affirmation.
Rising operational costs, particularly in O&M, pose a persistent threat to margin expansion, with Q1 FY26 O&M expenses increasing 8.6% year-over-year—significantly above the prior year's 1.9% growth and exceeding the long-term 3–4% compound annual target outlined in the 5-year plan. This acceleration was driven by elevated employee-related costs and a surge in line-locating activity tied to third-party fiber installations, suggesting external macroeconomic forces are inflating necessary safety and compliance expenditures. While management cites in-sourcing initiatives like the Watch and Protect program and AI-driven automation as offsetting measures, the benefits—such as the 12,000 hours of annualized labor savings from one process improvement—are incremental and may not scale sufficiently to counteract systemic cost pressures, especially if wage inflation or regulatory mandates continue to elevate base operating expenses without commensurate rate relief.
The company's growth strategy remains heavily dependent on uncertain, customer-driven large-load projects that lack binding commitments and transparent financial quantification, creating execution and timing risks that could undermine long-term expectations. Although ONE Gas cites six late-stage discussions representing up to 1 Bcf/day of potential demand, Curtis Dinan explicitly noted that individual projects like the 20 Mcf/day data center agreement are not quantified for shareholder benefit and are only included in guidance as they materialize—indicating a reactive rather than proactive growth approach. Furthermore, these transport-only arrangements avoid gas sales exposure but also limit upside to fixed fees, meaning revenue predictability is contingent on customer contract finalization and project completion timelines, which are subject to macroeconomic shifts in manufacturing, data center development, and utility generation trends—factors outside ONE Gas's control that could delay or derail anticipated capital-light growth contributions.

Peer Comparison

Companies in the Utilities - Regulated Gas

S.No.	Ticker	Company	Market Cap	P/E	P/S	Total Debt (Qtr)
1	ATO	Atmos Energy Corp	28.80 Bn	21.40	5.90	9.56 Bn
2	NI	Nisource Inc.	22.46 Bn	23.26	1.98	16.75 Bn
3	UGI	Ugi Corp /Pa/	7.39 Bn	11.52	1.00	6.79 Bn
4	NJR	New Jersey Resources Corp	5.67 Bn	16.99	2.60	3.43 Bn
5	BKH	Black Hills Corp /Sd/	5.61 Bn	17.02	2.46	4.24 Bn
6	OGS	ONE Gas, Inc.	4.80 Bn	17.54	2.06	2.38 Bn
7	MDU	Mdu Resources Group Inc	4.26 Bn	-6,651.06	2.36	2.60 Bn
8	CPK	Chesapeake Utilities Corp	2.94 Bn	19.78	2.79	0.20 Bn

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