NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. (NYSE: NREF)

Sector: Real Estate Industry: REIT - Mortgage CIK: 0001786248
Market Cap 251.77 Mn
P/B 0.68
P/E 3.49
P/S 1.69
ROIC (Qtr) 2.34
Div Yield % 17.53
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 89.93
Total Debt (Qtr) 4.48 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 12.03

About

NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. (NREF), a commercial mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT), operates in the competitive market of investment opportunities, focusing on originating, structuring, and investing in a diversified portfolio of investments. The company's primary investment objective is to generate attractive, risk-adjusted returns for its stockholders over the long term. NREF's main business activities involve investing in first-lien mortgage loans, mezzanine loans, preferred equity, convertible notes, multifamily properties,...

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Price action

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Strong operating cash flow of 31.81M provides 2.46x coverage of SG&A expenses 12.94M, showing efficient operational cost management.
  • Operating cash flow of 31.81M provides strong 5.44x coverage of operating expenses 5.84M, showing operational efficiency.
  • Strong free cash flow of 31.81M provides 2.46x coverage of SG&A expenses 12.94M, indicating efficient cost management.
  • Free cash flow of 31.81M provides solid 5.44x coverage of operating expenses 5.84M, showing operational efficiency.
  • Operating cash flow of 31.81M exceeds receivables of 3.92M by 8.12x, demonstrating excellent collection efficiency.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 31.81M barely covers its investment activities of 500.26M, with a coverage ratio of 0.06, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 31.81M provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (35.65M) with a -0.89 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Cash reserves of 21.56M provide limited coverage of acquisition spending of (137.01M), which is -0.16x, suggesting aggressive expansion might strain liquidity if market conditions deteriorate.
  • Free cash flow of 31.81M represents just -0.05x of debt issuance (674.65M), suggesting concerning reliance on leverage rather than internal cash generation for growth.
  • Operating cash flow of 31.81M shows concerning coverage of minority interest expenses of 17.83M, which is 1.78x, suggesting complex corporate structure risks.

Peer comparison

Companies in the REIT - Mortgage
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 NLY Annaly Capital Management Inc 13.98 Bn 10.42 8.17 107.02 Bn
2 AGNC AGNC Investment Corp. 11.44 Bn 16.65 30.74 95.01 Bn
3 STWD Starwood Property Trust, Inc. 6.55 Bn 17.88 3.63 21.43 Bn
4 RITM Rithm Capital Corp. 5.78 Bn 7.43 1.16 34.97 Bn
5 BXMT Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. 3.36 Bn 31.37 6.62 15.46 Bn
6 ARR Armour Residential REIT, Inc. 1.83 Bn 34.78 15.64 16.56 Bn
7 DX Dynex Capital Inc 1.59 Bn 9.04 6.88 11.75 Bn
8 ABR Arbor Realty Trust Inc 1.50 Bn 9.84 2.84 10.40 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.93 0.83
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 155.00 -102.96
EV to Debt EV to Debt 1.10 1.31
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 51.14 -260.73
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 41.41 -16.37
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 155.00 3.47
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 19.84 9.18
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 33.06 26.77
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 0.67 0.68
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 3.44 -4.85
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 1.21 -0.55
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 48.90 29.47
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 2.00 1.15
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 111.42 57.60
Interest Coverage Interest Coverage 0.00 -0.17
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex Growth (1y) % 0.00 37.60
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) -44.30 24.22
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) -8.47 4.53
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 210.29 17.83
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 155.71 9.86
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 210.29 20.98
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 210.29 11.17
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 212.21 59.25
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 13.40 59.63
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 138.79 20.65
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.03 0.04
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 4.69 0.83
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio 0.00 0.00
Current Ratio Current Ratio 0.00 0.00
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 12.03 5.05
Interest Cover Ratio Interest Cover Ratio 0.00 -0.17
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned 0.00 -0.17
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 67.00 137.11
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 64.65 142.19
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 64.65 129.16
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 90.10 117.97
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 48.40 125.89