Nelnet Inc (NYSE: NNI)

Sector: Financial Services Industry: Credit Services CIK: 0001258602
Market Cap 5.05 Bn
P/B 1.38
P/E 11.65
P/S 2.88
ROIC (Qtr) 4.06
Div Yield % 1.06
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 34.61
Total Debt (Qtr) 7.82 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 2.14

About

Nelnet Inc., known by its ticker symbol NNI, is a prominent player in the education technology and loan servicing industries. Its primary business activities encompass loan servicing, education technology services, and payments. Nelnet offers an array of products and services, which include student loan servicing, tuition payment plans, financial management, school management, learning management, and payment processing. Nelnet's Loan Servicing and Systems (LSS) segment represents a significant portion of its revenue, accounting for approximately...

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Price action

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Operating cash flow of 465.90M provides strong 35.42x coverage of stock compensation 13.15M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Robust free cash flow of 464.54M exceeds capital expenditure of 1.37M by 339.82x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.
  • Cash reserves of 766.80M provide ample 4.09x coverage of acquisition spending 187.69M, enabling strategic growth opportunities.
  • Strong free cash flow of 464.54M provides 2.47x coverage of acquisition spending 187.69M, indicating disciplined M&A strategy.
  • Operating cash flow of 465.90M provides strong 2.32x coverage of operating expenses 201.18M, showing operational efficiency.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 465.90M barely covers its investment activities of 853.91M, with a coverage ratio of 0.55, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 465.90M provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (41.32M) with a -11.28 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Free cash flow of 464.54M represents just -0.25x of debt issuance (1.87B), suggesting concerning reliance on leverage rather than internal cash generation for growth.
  • Operating cash flow of 465.90M shows concerning coverage of minority interest expenses of (10.78M), which is -43.24x, suggesting complex corporate structure risks.
  • Operating cash flow of 465.90M is outpaced by equity issuance of (51.58M) (-9.03 ratio), indicating concerning reliance on equity markets for funding operations.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Credit Services
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 V Visa Inc. 685.45 Bn 34.17 17.14 25.17 Bn
2 MA Mastercard Inc 520.38 Bn 36.52 16.53 18.98 Bn
3 AXP American Express Co 266.36 Bn 25.27 4.08 59.23 Bn
4 COF Capital One Financial Corp 111.93 Bn 102.41 3.87 51.48 Bn
5 PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc. 58.35 Bn 11.87 1.78 11.28 Bn
6 SYF Synchrony Financial 32.00 Bn 9.16 3.32 14.43 Bn
7 SOFI SoFi Technologies, Inc. 29.56 Bn 46.17 8.90 2.81 Bn
8 ALLY Ally Financial Inc. 14.44 Bn 52.52 1.83 20.63 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.88 1.03
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 26.09 4.72
EV to Debt EV to Debt 1.55 2.99
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 21.35 -246.63
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 16.87 -62.30
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 26.17 7.33
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 2.41 10.21
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 6.93 10.01
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 1.38 3.47
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 11.65 13.86
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 10.50 1.59
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 9.60 2.22
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 1.14 0.68
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 8.91 4.82
Interest Coverage Interest Coverage 0.00 -64.96
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) 97.71 -85.80
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) -14.71 7.91
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 1.79 5.47
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 284.04 16.85
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 135.16 -0.69
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 303.02 33.67
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 303.02 1.73
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 287.62 -64.54
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) -7.48 129.37
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 38.30 18.73
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.13 0.23
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.09 0.05
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio 0.00 0.46
Current Ratio Current Ratio 0.00 1.05
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 2.14 4.88
Interest Cover Ratio Interest Cover Ratio 0.00 -64.96
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned 0.00 -64.96
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 38.10 -17.83
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 32.46 125.65
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 32.46 -9.92
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 79.20 72.34
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 24.70 -23.76