National Healthcare Corp (NYSE: NHC)

Sector: Healthcare Industry: Medical Care Facilities CIK: 0001047335
Market Cap 2.15 Bn
P/B 2.04
P/E 21.19
P/S 1.43
ROIC (Qtr) 7.79
Div Yield % 1.80
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 12.48
Total Debt (Qtr) 128.07 Mn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.12

About

National HealthCare Corporation (NHC), often known by its stock symbol NHCC, operates in the healthcare services industry. The company specializes in providing a variety of services, including skilled nursing facilities, assisted living facilities, independent living facilities, homecare agencies, hospice agencies, and behavioral health hospitals. NHC's operations span across eight states in the Southeastern and Midwestern United States. The company's main business activities involve offering healthcare services to patients in the post-acute and...

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Price action

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Strong operating cash flow of 181.06M provides robust 1.41x coverage of total debt 128.07M, indicating excellent debt servicing capability and financial flexibility.
  • Healthy cash reserves of 150.29M provide 3.69x coverage of short-term debt 40.70M, demonstrating strong liquidity position and minimal refinancing risk.
  • Strong tangible asset base of 1.38B provides 10.79x coverage of total debt 128.07M, indicating robust asset backing and low credit risk.
  • Operating cash flow of 181.06M provides exceptional 82.53x coverage of minority interest expenses 2.19M, showing strong core operations.
  • Operating cash flow of 181.06M provides strong 39.39x coverage of stock compensation 4.60M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 181.06M barely covers its investment activities of (32.57M), with a coverage ratio of -5.56, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 181.06M provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (38.19M) with a -4.74 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Cash reserves of 150.29M provide limited coverage of acquisition spending of (2.10M), which is -71.57x, suggesting aggressive expansion might strain liquidity if market conditions deteriorate.
  • High receivables of 132.45M relative to inventory of 7.84M (16.89 ratio) suggests aggressive credit terms or collection difficulties, potentially masking revenue quality issues.
  • Free cash flow of 148.96M represents just -2.01x of debt issuance (74.28M), suggesting concerning reliance on leverage rather than internal cash generation for growth.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Medical Care Facilities
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 HCA HCA Healthcare, Inc. 114.88 Bn 18.11 1.54 46.35 Bn
2 THC Tenet Healthcare Corp 18.07 Bn 13.34 0.87 13.19 Bn
3 UHS Universal Health Services Inc 14.64 Bn 10.65 0.86 5.11 Bn
4 FMS Fresenius Medical Care AG 14.10 Bn 16.69 0.61 14.98 Bn
5 EHC Encompass Health Corp 12.55 Bn 19.95 2.17 2.66 Bn
6 ENSG Ensign Group, Inc 10.08 Bn 30.72 2.09 2.16 Bn
7 DVA Davita Inc. 8.90 Bn 11.53 0.67 12.78 Bn
8 CHE Chemed Corp 6.38 Bn 22.87 2.52 0.14 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 1.40 1.26
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 12.14 12.78
EV to Debt EV to Debt 17.17 12.10
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 15.48 10.74
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 13.03 16.04
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 14.76 18.02
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.02 432.64
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 1.47 2.77
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 2.05 -1.92
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 21.29 5.13
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 2.65 0.10
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 38.20 -13.44
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 2.50 0.27
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 25.99 5.42
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 17.98 -97.94
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -14.48 -114.65
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 32.02 65.22
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 4.17 0.97
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) -14.66 -46.98
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 36.66 75.97
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) -15.98 -61.19
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) -19.78 -115.48
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) -19.06 -24.32
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 61.55 309.51
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 21.12 17.88
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.95 1.04
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.18 0.04
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.53 0.39
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 1.75 1.39
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.12 -13.19
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 17.98 -97.94
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 17.98 -97.94
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 12.40 -95.81
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 9.47 -94.97
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 8.94 -105.60
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 100.00 23.31
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 6.70 -106.14