Nebius NBIS

NASDAQ NBIS
$206.46 -2.72 (-1.30%)
As of: Aug 31, 2026 · 3:59 PM EDT
Key Stats
Market Cap50.03 Bn
P/E-152.35
P/S36.92
Div. Yield0.00
ROIC (Qtr)-0.08
Total Debt (Qtr)8.55 Bn
Revenue Growth (1y) (Qtr)454.04
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About

Nebius Group N. V. builds full stack AI cloud infrastructure to support the rapid growth of the artificial intelligence industry. The company provides compute storage managed services and critical software that enable customers to train run and deploy AI models and applications efficiently. It owns and operates data centers in Finland and colocation sites in France Iceland and the United States and offers a proprietary AI cloud platform that integrates hardware and software…

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Sector: Technology Sector rationale The company's primary revenue is generated from its AI cloud infrastructure, providing GPU-based compute, storage, and a proprietary cloud platform, which falls under Cloud Platforms and Data Centers. Its other business lines—autonomous driving (Avride), data labeling (Toloka), and education technology (TripleTen)—also fall within the Technology sector's scope (Autonomous Driving, AI Platforms, and Education Technology). Industries: +2 more Cloud Platforms Cloud Platforms Primary Nebius provides a full stack AI cloud platform offering GPU-based compute instances, storage, and networking for AI model training and inference. It competes directly with major cloud providers like AWS, Google Cloud, and Azure, selling compute resources as a service. Autonomous Driving Autonomous Driving Secondary The company operates the Avride division, which develops autonomous driving technology for self-driving vehicles and delivery robots, partnering with firms like Uber and Hyundai. AI Platforms AI Platforms Secondary Through its Toloka business, the company provides scalable data labeling, generation, and evaluation services specifically for AI model training and fine-tuning for AI research labs and GenAI startups. Classified using BQ-MICS CIK: 0001513845
Bull & bear

Investment Thesis

▲ Bull case
  • Nebius has secured over 3.5 gigawatts of contracted power with more than 75% coming from owned capacity which creates a durable cost advantage as the company scales its AI native hyperscaler model Owned sites reduce reliance on third party power contracts and protect margins from volatile energy prices The Pennsylvania site alone will deliver 1.2 gigawatts by 2030 providing a long term anchor for U S expansion and supporting the pipeline of committed capacity for 2027 and beyond This power ownership translates into lower operating expenses per GPU hour and enables the company to offer competitive pricing while maintaining healthy margins
  • The Meta agreement provides a $27 billion five year capacity contract that includes a $12 billion committed compute layer and a $15 billion discretionary option which can be sold to third party AI cloud customers at potentially higher market prices This structure allows Nebius to finance new clusters through asset backed lending at attractive rates while retaining upside if demand from enterprises remains strong The optionality effectively de‑riskes the capital intensive build out and creates a natural hedge against any softening in hyperscaler demand The company can thus pursue aggressive capex knowing that a substantial portion of the investment is backed by a creditworthy counterparty
  • Nebius AI revenue reached a $1.9 billion annualized run rate in Q1 2026 up over 50% from the prior quarter driven by 841% year over year growth in the core AI cloud business The adjusted EBITDA margin for Nebius AI expanded to 45% up from 24% in the previous quarter reflecting operating leverage as revenue outpaces cost growth The group margin is guided to around 40% for the full year with expectations of a rebound in Q3 and Q4 after a temporary Q2 dip due to back end weighted capacity deployment This margin progression indicates that the business model is scaling efficiently and that profitability will improve as higher utilization and pricing power take effect
  • Recent acquisitions of Tavily Eigen AI and Clarifai were made to accelerate the product roadmap and deepen customer engagement rather than to generate standalone software revenue Eigen AI provides industry leading model level inference optimization while Clarifai adds system level enhancements and Tavily brings agentic search capabilities These additions strengthen the Token Factory offering and enable Nebius to serve emerging workloads such as agentic AI and vertical specific AI applications By integrating these teams Nebius can increase customer lifetime value and lock in enterprise clients who value a full stack solution that spans from bare metal compute to sophisticated software tools
  • The partnership with NVIDIA Exemplar Cloud status on GB300 for training workloads aligns Nebius hardware roadmap with NVIDIA’s future product cycles including Vera Rubin and Vera CPU platforms This gives Nebius early access to next generation silicon and ensures that its infrastructure remains performance leadership The equity investment of $2 billion from NVIDIA further cements the strategic alliance and provides additional financial flexibility The collaboration also extends to joint software development for inference and agentic workloads which can accelerate time to market for new product features and enhance the overall value proposition of the Nebius AI cloud
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▼ Bear case
  • The aggressive increase in capex guidance to $20 billion to $25 billion raises execution risk as the company must deliver massive infrastructure projects on time and on budget Any delays in power procurement construction or supply chain could push revenue recognition into later periods and weigh on near term margins The company’s own guidance acknowledges a nonlinear margin trajectory with Q2 expected to be lower due to back end weighted capacity deployment suggesting that the benefits of investment will lag the spending If the market softens during this lag period the company could face underutilized assets and pressure on profitability
  • While the Meta contract provides optionality it also creates a dependence on a single counterparty for a significant portion of future financing capacity If Meta’s own AI spending plans were to change due to macroeconomic headwinds or strategic shifts the $15 billion discretionary layer might not be fully utilized reducing the upside assumed in the bullish case The company would then need to find alternative customers for that capacity at potentially lower prices which could compress margins and increase the cost of financing the build out
  • Component cost inflation although described as low single digit could accelerate if global semiconductor demand remains tight or if geopolitical tensions disrupt supply chains The company mitigated some of this impact by early procurement in 2025 but future capex tranches may not enjoy the same hedge Persistent cost pressure would directly raise the expense of adding new GPUs and related infrastructure eroding the expected returns on investment and potentially forcing the company to raise prices which could dampen demand
  • The rapid expansion relies heavily on the assumption that enterprise AI spending will continue to grow at a strong pace A broad based economic slowdown or a shift in corporate priorities away from AI projects could reduce demand from the fintech manufacturing and life science verticals that Nebius highlights as growth drivers In such a scenario the company’s pipeline might not convert to revenue at the historical win rates and the reliance on prepayments could reverse if customers defer or cancel commitments
  • The acquisitions of Tavily Eigen AI and Clarifai while strategically sound add integration risk Combining teams with different cultures technologies and go to market models could distract from core execution and delay the realization of product synergies If the acquired talent does not stay or if the expected product enhancements fail to materialize the company may have spent capital without generating the anticipated uplift in customer stickiness or pricing power
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Peer group

Peer Comparison

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