Mfa Financial, Inc. (NYSE: MFA)

Sector: Real Estate Industry: REIT - Mortgage CIK: 0001055160
Market Cap 991.84 Mn
P/B 0.54
P/E 10.95
P/S 3.48
ROIC (Qtr) 1.09
Div Yield % 14.83
Rev 1y % (Qtr) -5.79
Total Debt (Qtr) 9.84 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 5.40

About

MFA Financial, Inc., often referred to as MFA, is a specialty finance company operating in the residential mortgage industry. Its main business activities involve the acquisition and financing of residential mortgage assets, which it does through the purchase of whole loans, mortgage securities, and other related assets. The company's operations span various countries and regions, including the United States. MFA generates revenue primarily from its residential whole loans, mortgage securities, and other related assets. Its primary products include...

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Price action

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Operating cash flow of 150.07M provides strong 3.77x coverage of operating expenses 39.80M, showing operational efficiency.
  • Strong free cash flow of 150.07M provides 1.25x coverage of SG&A expenses 120.45M, indicating efficient cost management.
  • Free cash flow of 150.07M provides solid 3.77x coverage of operating expenses 39.80M, showing operational efficiency.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 150.07M barely covers its investment activities of (795.83M), with a coverage ratio of -0.19, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 150.07M provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (146.88M) with a -1.02 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Operating cash flow of 150.07M provides minimal -46.82x coverage of tax expenses of (3.21M), suggesting potential tax planning inefficiencies or unsustainable tax positions.
  • Free cash flow of 150.07M represents just 0.17x of debt issuance 896.44M, suggesting concerning reliance on leverage rather than internal cash generation for growth.
  • Operating cash flow of 150.07M is outpaced by equity issuance of (10.35M) (-14.50 ratio), indicating concerning reliance on equity markets for funding operations.

Peer comparison

Companies in the REIT - Mortgage
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 NLY Annaly Capital Management Inc 13.98 Bn 10.42 8.17 107.02 Bn
2 AGNC AGNC Investment Corp. 11.44 Bn 16.65 30.74 95.01 Bn
3 STWD Starwood Property Trust, Inc. 6.55 Bn 17.88 3.63 21.43 Bn
4 RITM Rithm Capital Corp. 5.78 Bn 7.43 1.16 34.97 Bn
5 BXMT Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. 3.36 Bn 31.37 6.62 15.46 Bn
6 ARR Armour Residential REIT, Inc. 1.83 Bn 34.78 15.64 16.56 Bn
7 DX Dynex Capital Inc 1.59 Bn 9.04 6.88 11.75 Bn
8 ABR Arbor Realty Trust Inc 1.50 Bn 9.84 2.84 10.40 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.82 0.83
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 66.10 -102.96
EV to Debt EV to Debt 1.01 1.31
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 79.24 -260.73
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 79.24 -16.37
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 66.10 3.47
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 10.35 9.18
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 34.75 26.77
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 0.53 0.68
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 10.58 -4.85
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 0.49 -0.55
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 162.50 29.47
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 1.43 1.15
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 97.81 57.60
Interest Coverage Interest Coverage 0.00 -0.17
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) 0.00 37.60
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 6.77 24.22
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 2.14 4.53
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) -36.79 17.83
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) -39.23 9.86
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) -39.23 20.98
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) -39.23 11.17
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) -46.34 59.25
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 62.25 59.63
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) -24.35 20.65
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.02 0.04
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 1.31 0.83
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio 0.00 0.00
Current Ratio Current Ratio 0.00 0.00
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 5.40 5.05
Interest Cover Ratio Interest Cover Ratio 0.00 -0.17
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned 0.00 -0.17
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 43.90 137.11
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 43.86 142.19
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 43.86 129.16
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 100.00 117.97
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 31.70 125.89