Mbia Inc (NYSE: MBI)

Sector: Financial Services Industry: Insurance - Specialty CIK: 0000814585
Market Cap 346.20 Mn
P/B -0.16
P/E -1.96
P/S 3.89
ROIC (Qtr) 1.80
Div Yield % 0.00
Rev 1y % (Qtr) -48.28
Total Debt (Qtr) 3.52 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) -1.62

About

MBIA Inc., often recognized by its stock symbol MBI, operates in the financial guarantee insurance industry. The company's primary business involves providing financial guarantee insurance to investors, offering unconditional and irrevocable guarantees for the payment of principal, interest, or other amounts due on insured obligations. MBIA's operations span across the United States public finance markets, international markets, and structured finance markets, through its subsidiaries National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation (National) and...

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Price action

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Tangible assets of 2.06B provide exceptional 11.57x coverage of deferred revenue 178M, showing strong service capability backing.
  • Retained earnings of (1.72B) represent substantial 0.79x of equity (2.18B), indicating strong internal capital generation.
  • Operating cash flow of 51M provides strong 12.75x coverage of operating expenses 4M, showing operational efficiency.
  • Free cash flow of 51M provides solid 12.75x coverage of operating expenses 4M, showing operational efficiency.
  • Tangible assets of 2.06B provide robust 16.48x coverage of receivables 125M, showing strong asset quality.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 51M barely covers its investment activities of (29M), with a coverage ratio of -1.76, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 51M provides insufficient coverage of deferred revenue obligations of 178M, which is 0.29x, raising concerns about future service delivery capabilities.
  • Free cash flow of 51M represents just -12.75x of debt issuance (4M), suggesting concerning reliance on leverage rather than internal cash generation for growth.
  • Operating cash flow of 51M is outpaced by equity issuance of (7M) (-7.29 ratio), indicating concerning reliance on equity markets for funding operations.
  • R&D investment of 0 represents just 0x of SG&A expenses of 82M, indicating potential underinvestment in innovation relative to administrative overhead.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Insurance - Specialty
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 FNF Fidelity National Financial, Inc. 14.91 Bn 12.76 1.06 4.77 Bn
2 AXS Axis Capital Holdings Ltd 8.73 Bn 8.89 1.39 1.49 Bn
3 MTG Mgic Investment Corp 7.13 Bn 9.46 5.86 0.65 Bn
4 ESNT Essent Group Ltd. 6.66 Bn 9.47 5.27 0.49 Bn
5 RYAN Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. 6.64 Bn 96.02 2.24 3.58 Bn
6 FAF First American Financial Corp 6.33 Bn 13.13 0.89 2.85 Bn
7 ACT Enact Holdings, Inc. 6.06 Bn 9.19 4.95 0.74 Bn
8 RDN Radian Group Inc 5.23 Bn 9.08 4.17 1.13 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 1.79 0.71
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 72.21 14.19
EV to Debt EV to Debt 1.05 23.24
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 167.39 18.43
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 153.45 16.13
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 72.21 16.11
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 10.62 1.73
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 41.38 5.55
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B -0.16 1.80
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E -1.96 15.04
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 0.00 2.59
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 38.44
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.00 2.02
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 72.23
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 0.11 24.83
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) 0.00 -23.94
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) -6.76 -13.37
Dividend Growth (1y) % Dividend Growth (1y) % 0.00 6.74
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 106.83 22.43
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 107.57 10.45
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 106.83 35.06
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 66.85 50.45
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 67.85 37.38
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 128.18 -3.02
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 150.93 11.39
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.04 0.23
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.00 0.51
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio 0.00 0.00
Current Ratio Current Ratio 0.00 0.06
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) -1.62 0.51
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 0.11 24.83
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 0.11 24.83
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 24.70 36.49
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 24.72 34.57
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) -198.88 17.61
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 123.60 74.55
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) -198.90 10.79