Macerich Co (MAC) Stock Analysis and Metrics

Macerich

NYSE: MAC

$24.33 ▼ -0.12 (-0.49%)

At close: Aug 10, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC

Financial Ratios

Market Cap6.37 Bn

P/E-8.77

P/S6.33

Div. Yield0.02

Total Debt (Qtr)4.85 Bn

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About

The Macerich Company is engaged in the acquisition ownership development redevelopment management and leasing of regional and community power shopping centers located across the United States. The company operates as a self administered self managed real estate investment trust and serves as the sole general partner of The Macerich Partnership L P a Delaware limited partnership. Through this partnership and its wholly owned management companies Macerich oversees a portfolio of 37 regional retail centers and one community power shopping center comprising roughly 39 million square feet of gross leasable area. The company was incorporated as a Maryland corporation in September 1993 and conducts all of its operations via the partnership and its management entities.

The Macerich Company generates revenue primarily from leasing retail space to tenants within its centers. Income consists of minimum rent payments percentage rent based on tenant sales and reimbursements for property taxes common area maintenance and other operating expenses. Additional revenue streams include fees from property management development services and leasing commissions paid by third parties. The company also recognizes gains from the occasional sale of land parcels or outparcels that are not core to its long term strategy. Overall the bulk of earnings derives from the ongoing operation of its shopping center portfolio.

The company reports its activities through two operational segments that are not defined by geography. The Macerich Company operates through the following segments: Consolidated Centers and Unconsolidated Joint Venture Centers.

• The Consolidated Centers segment comprises the shopping centers that the company owns and controls directly. These properties are fully consolidated in the financial statements and contribute the majority of the company’s gross leasable area and rental income. The segment includes regional malls and the single community power shopping center that are wholly owned or majority owned by Macerich. Management oversees leasing tenant relations maintenance and capital expenditures for these assets.

• The Unconsolidated Joint Venture Centers segment includes shopping centers in which Macerich holds an ownership interest but does not have controlling interest. These properties are accounted for under the equity method and their financial results are reflected in the company’s share of earnings from unconsolidated affiliates. The segment consists of regional retail centers held through partnerships with other real estate investors. Macerich provides property management leasing and oversight services while sharing decision making with its joint venture partners.

Macerich holds a notable position among publicly traded real estate investment trusts that specialize in regional malls. The company competes with other large mall owners such as Simon Property Group Brookfield Properties and GGP Inc as well as numerous private developers and regional operators. Competitive advantages stem from a diversified tenant mix that includes national retailers local boutiques and experiential offerings. The firm’s active management approach emphasizes on site property managers and leasing teams that respond quickly to market shifts. Macerich’s ongoing redevelopment and development program allows it to reposition underperforming assets and capture additional value from mixed use initiatives. Its balance sheet strength and access to capital markets support strategic acquisitions and disciplined disposition activities.

The company’s customers are primarily retailers that lease space in its shopping centers. These tenants range from national department stores and specialty apparel chains to restaurants entertainment providers and service providers. Among the largest tenants are Dick's Sporting Goods Victoria's Secret Signet Jewelers Abercrombie & Fitch The Gap LVMH Primark AE Outfitters H&M and Zara. Anchor tenants that drive foot traffic include Macy's JCPenney Dillard's Nordstrom Target and Walmart. In addition the centers serve millions of shoppers each year who visit for shopping dining and leisure activities.

Investment Thesis

▲ Bull case

Macerich's Path Forward plan is on track for substantial completion by year-end, with 750 of the targeted 1,000 new leases already executed and 250 remaining, of which 125 are in the LOI phase and 125 in prospecting. This progress is underpinned by a consistent ELC approval run rate averaging 100 deals per quarter, evidenced by 103 approvals in Q1 2026. The company's confidence in meeting its leasing target is further supported by the structural shift in tenant demand, where retailers prioritize quality flagship stores over market saturation, aligning perfectly with Macerich's strategy to replace underperforming tenants with high-impact concepts like luxury dining and experiential retail. The transformation at Scottsdale Fashion Square, where a 35,000 square foot home furnishing tenant was replaced with Hermès, Elephante, and Laurel Piana—resulting in over 10x increases in both cost of occupancy and projected sales to exceed $100 million—demonstrates the model's scalability and profitability. This approach is being replicated across 30 vacant anchor backfill projects, each expected to generate over $750 million in sales, directly driving NOI growth through increased tenant productivity and dwell time.
The acquisition of Annapolis Mall for $260 million plus $12 million for the vacant Sears parcel is a strategic catalyst that is accretive to the 2028 FFO target by approximately $0.04 per share on a leverage-neutral basis. Annapolis is a Class A regional mall in one of the most affluent East Coast markets, with an average household income exceeding $161,000 and a trade area population over 1 million. The prior owners had already secured 18 new tenant deals totaling 353,000 square feet opening in 2026 and 2027, including Dave & Buster's, Tesla, Uniqlo, and a Lululemon relocation-expansion, alongside long-term renewals with Apple, Zara, and AMC. This gives Macerich a significant head start, as the asset is already 2 years into its Elevate and Transform trajectory. The immediate opportunity lies in leasing the remaining 107,000 square feet of near-term available space, including 52,000 square feet of prime in-line space adjacent to the upcoming Dick's House of Sport, which is projected to open in August and has already demonstrated traffic uplift in similar implementations (e.g., Chandler Mall saw a 40% trade area increase and 20% overall traffic rise post-opening). The Sears parcel, situated on the property's most heavily trafficked corner, offers optionality for mixed-use or alternative development, further enhancing long-term value creation potential.
Macerich's balance sheet refinement through disciplined disposition execution is creating a foundation for sustainable leverage reduction and free cash flow generation. To date, the company has completed approximately $1.3 billion in dispositions, representing two-thirds of its $2 billion target, with an additional $300 million to $400 million in outparcels, land, and Eddie assets expected to be sold or given back by year-end. This progress has already lowered net debt to adjusted EBITDA to 7.76x at the end of Q1 2026—a full turn below the starting point of the Path Forward plan—with a clear strategy to reach the low-to-mid 6x range over the next couple of years. The recent amendment and restatement of the $900 million revolving credit facility, extended to March 2030 with pricing reduced to 190 basis points over SOFR (and potentially as low as 135–165 bps upon performance thresholds), provides ample liquidity and flexibility. Crucially, the company funded the Annapolis acquisition using $85 million in ATM equity (at an average price above $19) and $150 million in line of credit borrowings, avoiding dilution and maintaining leverage neutrality relative to 2028 targets. This financial prudence, combined with the back-end weighted NOI growth from the SNO pipeline—estimated at $30 million in 2026, ramping to $40–$45 million in 2027 and $45–$50 million in 2028—creates a visible, multi-year earnings uplift that is not yet fully reflected in current valuations.

Macerich's Path Forward plan is on track for substantial completion by year-end, with 750 of the targeted 1,000 new leases already executed and 250 remaining, of which 125 are in the LOI phase and 125 in prospecting. This progress is underpinned by a consistent ELC approval run rate averaging 100 deals per quarter, evidenced by 103 approvals in Q1 2026. The company's confidence in meeting its leasing target is further supported by the structural shift in tenant demand, where retailers prioritize quality flagship stores over market saturation, aligning perfectly with Macerich's strategy to replace underperforming tenants with high-impact concepts like luxury dining and experiential retail. The transformation at Scottsdale Fashion Square, where a 35,000 square foot home furnishing tenant was replaced with Hermès, Elephante, and Laurel Piana—resulting in over 10x increases in both cost of occupancy and projected sales to exceed $100 million—demonstrates the model's scalability and profitability. This approach is being replicated across 30 vacant anchor backfill projects, each expected to generate over $750 million in sales, directly driving NOI growth through increased tenant productivity and dwell time.
The acquisition of Annapolis Mall for $260 million plus $12 million for the vacant Sears parcel is a strategic catalyst that is accretive to the 2028 FFO target by approximately $0.04 per share on a leverage-neutral basis. Annapolis is a Class A regional mall in one of the most affluent East Coast markets, with an average household income exceeding $161,000 and a trade area population over 1 million. The prior owners had already secured 18 new tenant deals totaling 353,000 square feet opening in 2026 and 2027, including Dave & Buster's, Tesla, Uniqlo, and a Lululemon relocation-expansion, alongside long-term renewals with Apple, Zara, and AMC. This gives Macerich a significant head start, as the asset is already 2 years into its Elevate and Transform trajectory. The immediate opportunity lies in leasing the remaining 107,000 square feet of near-term available space, including 52,000 square feet of prime in-line space adjacent to the upcoming Dick's House of Sport, which is projected to open in August and has already demonstrated traffic uplift in similar implementations (e.g., Chandler Mall saw a 40% trade area increase and 20% overall traffic rise post-opening). The Sears parcel, situated on the property's most heavily trafficked corner, offers optionality for mixed-use or alternative development, further enhancing long-term value creation potential.
Macerich's balance sheet refinement through disciplined disposition execution is creating a foundation for sustainable leverage reduction and free cash flow generation. To date, the company has completed approximately $1.3 billion in dispositions, representing two-thirds of its $2 billion target, with an additional $300 million to $400 million in outparcels, land, and Eddie assets expected to be sold or given back by year-end. This progress has already lowered net debt to adjusted EBITDA to 7.76x at the end of Q1 2026—a full turn below the starting point of the Path Forward plan—with a clear strategy to reach the low-to-mid 6x range over the next couple of years. The recent amendment and restatement of the $900 million revolving credit facility, extended to March 2030 with pricing reduced to 190 basis points over SOFR (and potentially as low as 135–165 bps upon performance thresholds), provides ample liquidity and flexibility. Crucially, the company funded the Annapolis acquisition using $85 million in ATM equity (at an average price above $19) and $150 million in line of credit borrowings, avoiding dilution and maintaining leverage neutrality relative to 2028 targets. This financial prudence, combined with the back-end weighted NOI growth from the SNO pipeline—estimated at $30 million in 2026, ramping to $40–$45 million in 2027 and $45–$50 million in 2028—creates a visible, multi-year earnings uplift that is not yet fully reflected in current valuations.

▼ Bear case

Macerich's reliance on completing 1,000 new leases by year-end to drive its Path Forward plan presents significant execution risk, as the remaining 250 leases are concentrated in fortress, fortress-potential, and A/B/C-rated spaces—areas that may inherently face weaker tenant demand despite management's optimism. While the company cites an ELC approval run rate of 100 deals per quarter, this metric does not distinguish between new leases and renewals, and the Q1 2026 figure of 103 approvals includes a substantial number of renewals, potentially overstating the pace of transformative leasing. The leasing speedometer, which tracks revenue completion, stood at 81% at the end of Q1 and only improved to 83% subsequently, indicating sluggish conversion of signed leases to rent-paying occupancy. With only 250 leases left to execute but a slowing momentum in new deal velocity—evidenced by Doug Healey's acknowledgment that Q1 2026 new leasing activity, while strong, was compared to a record 2025 base—the company may struggle to maintain the required pace to achieve its physical permanent occupancy target of 88% to 89% by the end of 2026. Any delay in lease commencements would directly push back the NOI ramp from the SNO pipeline, undermining the back-end weighted growth assumptions for 2027 and 2028.
The Annapolis Mall acquisition, while accretive on paper, carries hidden integration and market risks that management did not adequately address during the Q&A. Although the asset is described as Class A with an affluent trade area, the prior owners' two-year head start on Elevate and Transform may not translate to seamless integration under Macerich's operational model, particularly if tenant relationships or merchandising strategies are not fully transferable. The company's reliance on the Dick's House of Sport anchor to drive traffic and in-line leasing—citing Chandler Mall as a success story—may not be replicable, as Annapolis lacks the same trade area dynamics or competitive anchoring structure. Furthermore, the vacant Sears parcel, while highlighted as optionality for mixed-use development, introduces significant uncertainty: residential or alternative uses would require lengthy entitlements, rezoning, and community approvals, with no timeline or cost estimate provided. Management's vague commitment to "evaluate pretty carefully" the best course of action for the Sears parcel reflects a lack of concrete plan, turning a potential asset into a potential drag on capital allocation and management focus. The acquisition's $0.04 accretive impact to 2028 FFO is based on stabilized NOI assumptions that assume successful leasing of the 107,000 square feet of near-term space—a projection that ignores potential delays in tenant improvements, build-out periods, or softer-than-expected demand for prime in-line space despite the Dick's House of Sport opening.
Macerich's balance sheet improvements, while real, are being achieved through asset sales that may erode the quality and diversification of its go-forward portfolio over time. The company has already disposed of approximately $1.3 billion in assets, with plans to sell or give back an additional $300 million to $400 million in outparcels, land, and Eddie assets by year-end. This aggressive disposition pace risks transforming the portfolio into a collection of isolated, high-performing assets without the scale or synergistic benefits of a cohesive regional mall platform. The joint venture at Deptford Mall, refinanced with a new $115 million 5-year interest-only loan at 6.95%, illustrates a growing reliance on higher-cost debt for remaining assets, suggesting that the best properties may have already been monetized. Furthermore, the company's strategy to reduce leverage to the low-to-mid 6x range depends on continued disposition proceeds and NOI growth from the SNO pipeline—both of which are vulnerable to macroeconomic headwinds. A slowdown in consumer spending, particularly among the middle- and upper-income cohorts that drive sales in luxury and experiential tenants, could simultaneously reduce in-line sales growth (which was only 3.9% in Q1 2026) and impair tenant ability to meet rent commencement schedules, thereby delaying SNO contributions and forcing asset sales at unfavorable prices to meet leverage targets. This creates a negative feedback loop where financial pressure accelerates dispositions, further degrading portfolio quality and undermining the very growth engine the Path Forward plan depends on.

Macerich's reliance on completing 1,000 new leases by year-end to drive its Path Forward plan presents significant execution risk, as the remaining 250 leases are concentrated in fortress, fortress-potential, and A/B/C-rated spaces—areas that may inherently face weaker tenant demand despite management's optimism. While the company cites an ELC approval run rate of 100 deals per quarter, this metric does not distinguish between new leases and renewals, and the Q1 2026 figure of 103 approvals includes a substantial number of renewals, potentially overstating the pace of transformative leasing. The leasing speedometer, which tracks revenue completion, stood at 81% at the end of Q1 and only improved to 83% subsequently, indicating sluggish conversion of signed leases to rent-paying occupancy. With only 250 leases left to execute but a slowing momentum in new deal velocity—evidenced by Doug Healey's acknowledgment that Q1 2026 new leasing activity, while strong, was compared to a record 2025 base—the company may struggle to maintain the required pace to achieve its physical permanent occupancy target of 88% to 89% by the end of 2026. Any delay in lease commencements would directly push back the NOI ramp from the SNO pipeline, undermining the back-end weighted growth assumptions for 2027 and 2028.
The Annapolis Mall acquisition, while accretive on paper, carries hidden integration and market risks that management did not adequately address during the Q&A. Although the asset is described as Class A with an affluent trade area, the prior owners' two-year head start on Elevate and Transform may not translate to seamless integration under Macerich's operational model, particularly if tenant relationships or merchandising strategies are not fully transferable. The company's reliance on the Dick's House of Sport anchor to drive traffic and in-line leasing—citing Chandler Mall as a success story—may not be replicable, as Annapolis lacks the same trade area dynamics or competitive anchoring structure. Furthermore, the vacant Sears parcel, while highlighted as optionality for mixed-use development, introduces significant uncertainty: residential or alternative uses would require lengthy entitlements, rezoning, and community approvals, with no timeline or cost estimate provided. Management's vague commitment to "evaluate pretty carefully" the best course of action for the Sears parcel reflects a lack of concrete plan, turning a potential asset into a potential drag on capital allocation and management focus. The acquisition's $0.04 accretive impact to 2028 FFO is based on stabilized NOI assumptions that assume successful leasing of the 107,000 square feet of near-term space—a projection that ignores potential delays in tenant improvements, build-out periods, or softer-than-expected demand for prime in-line space despite the Dick's House of Sport opening.
Macerich's balance sheet improvements, while real, are being achieved through asset sales that may erode the quality and diversification of its go-forward portfolio over time. The company has already disposed of approximately $1.3 billion in assets, with plans to sell or give back an additional $300 million to $400 million in outparcels, land, and Eddie assets by year-end. This aggressive disposition pace risks transforming the portfolio into a collection of isolated, high-performing assets without the scale or synergistic benefits of a cohesive regional mall platform. The joint venture at Deptford Mall, refinanced with a new $115 million 5-year interest-only loan at 6.95%, illustrates a growing reliance on higher-cost debt for remaining assets, suggesting that the best properties may have already been monetized. Furthermore, the company's strategy to reduce leverage to the low-to-mid 6x range depends on continued disposition proceeds and NOI growth from the SNO pipeline—both of which are vulnerable to macroeconomic headwinds. A slowdown in consumer spending, particularly among the middle- and upper-income cohorts that drive sales in luxury and experiential tenants, could simultaneously reduce in-line sales growth (which was only 3.9% in Q1 2026) and impair tenant ability to meet rent commencement schedules, thereby delaying SNO contributions and forcing asset sales at unfavorable prices to meet leverage targets. This creates a negative feedback loop where financial pressure accelerates dispositions, further degrading portfolio quality and undermining the very growth engine the Path Forward plan depends on.

Peer Comparison

Companies in the REIT - Retail

S.No.	Ticker	Company	Market Cap	P/E	P/S	Total Debt (Qtr)
1	SPG	Simon Property Group Inc.	76.48 Bn	15.73	12.02	0.02 Bn
2	O	Realty Income Corp	58.29 Bn	51.99	9.85	25.09 Bn
3	KIM	Kimco Realty Corp	16.39 Bn	28.53	7.61	8.31 Bn
4	FRT	Federal Realty Investment Trust	10.31 Bn	24.06	7.90	2.97 Bn
5	ADC	Agree Realty Corp	9.41 Bn	41.74	12.06	2.59 Bn
6	NNN	Nnn Reit, Inc.	8.91 Bn	25.41	9.52	4.50 Bn
7	EPRT	Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc.	6.63 Bn	24.68	10.77	1.73 Bn
8	MAC	Macerich Co	6.37 Bn	-8.77	6.33	4.85 Bn

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