Joint Stock Co Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ: KSPI)

Sector: Technology Industry: Software - Infrastructure CIK: 0001985487
Market Cap 15.55 Bn
P/B 3.75
P/E 7.96
P/S 3.05
ROIC (Qtr) 23,236.54
Div Yield % 2.09
Rev 1y % (Qtr) -48.87
Total Debt (Qtr) 649.17 Mn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.16

About

Kaspi.kz, a leading financial technology company based in Kazakhstan, is commonly known by its stock symbol KSPI. The company has established itself as a significant player in the financial services industry, providing various services and products to both consumers and merchants. Kaspi.kz operates a two-sided Super App business model, which integrates different services and products into a single platform. This model has allowed the company to cater to a diverse range of customer needs, resulting in a vast customer base of 14.0 million Average...

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Price action

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Strong operating cash flow of 911.06M provides robust 1.40x coverage of total debt 649.17M, indicating excellent debt servicing capability and financial flexibility.
  • Operating cash flow of 911.06M provides exceptional 32.79x coverage of minority interest expenses 27.79M, showing strong core operations.
  • Strong tangible asset base of 17.73B provides 27.32x coverage of total debt 649.17M, indicating robust asset backing and low credit risk.
  • Robust free cash flow of 653.95M exceeds capital expenditure of 257.11M by 2.54x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.
  • Strong operating cash flow of 911.06M provides 5.06x coverage of SG&A expenses 179.96M, showing efficient operational cost management.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 911.06M barely covers its investment activities of (1.03B), with a coverage ratio of -0.88, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Investment activities of (1.03B) provide weak support for R&D spending of 229.67M, which is -4.50x, suggesting potentially insufficient investment in innovation relative to other capital deployment.
  • Cash reserves of 1.55B provide limited coverage of acquisition spending of (1.01B), which is -1.54x, suggesting aggressive expansion might strain liquidity if market conditions deteriorate.
  • Deposit liabilities of 12.78B significantly exceed cash reserves of 1.55B, which is 8.25x, indicating potential liquidity risk in stress scenarios.
  • Other current assets of 0 provide weak coverage of payables of 149.18M, which is 0x, suggesting potential working capital stress in near term.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Software - Infrastructure
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 MSFT Microsoft Corp 3,563.59 Bn 33.97 12.13 60.56 Bn
2 ORCL Oracle Corp 561.87 Bn 36.43 9.21 124.39 Bn
3 PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc. 413.65 Bn 377.64 106.17 0.24 Bn
4 PANW Palo Alto Networks Inc 126.45 Bn 113.19 13.23 0.35 Bn
5 CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. 116.42 Bn -370.56 25.50 0.82 Bn
6 SNPS Synopsys Inc 86.06 Bn 64.60 12.20 14.29 Bn
7 NET Cloudflare, Inc. 62.78 Bn -609.27 31.18 3.50 Bn
8 FTNT Fortinet, Inc. 60.83 Bn 32.47 9.28 1.00 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.00 2.69
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO -0.01 28.91
EV to Debt EV to Debt -0.02 19.83
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 0.00 -9.95
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 0.00 6.82
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF -0.02 26.09
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 0.00 0.36
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 0.00 -9.34
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 3.75 3.88
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 7.96 -10.66
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 0.00 -0.30
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 16.70 2.71
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 1.71 0.10
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.09 1.68
Interest Coverage Interest Coverage 0.00 -14.20
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -72.78 -408.01
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 24.94 226.39
Dividend Growth (1y) % Dividend Growth (1y) % -69.34 -0.28
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) -6.39 25.27
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 0.00 47.48
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) -7.37 20.13
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) -7.37 14.16
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) -6.28 67.50
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) -52.52 296.60
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) -13.09 46.75
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.00 0.67
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.00 0.01
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio 0.00 1.22
Current Ratio Current Ratio 0.00 2.59
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.16 -0.96
Interest Cover Ratio Interest Cover Ratio 0.00 -14.20
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned 0.00 -14.20
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 0.00 -548.16
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 25,570.22 -199.84
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 46.60 -607.20
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 59.80 51.88
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 38.30 -610.00