H World Group Ltd (NASDAQ: HTHT)

Sector: Consumer Cyclical Industry: Lodging CIK: 0001483994
Market Cap 16.57 Bn
P/B 9.93
P/E 29.82
P/S 4.76
ROIC (Qtr) 58.39
Div Yield % 3.30
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 8.06
Total Debt (Qtr) 5.22 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 3.13
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About

H World Group Ltd, also known as HTHT, is a leading hotel group in China with international operations, specializing in the multi-brand hotel sector. The company operates under three models: leased and owned, franchised, and manachised. As of December 31, 2023, H World Group had an impressive 9,394 hotels in operation, with 691 leased and owned hotels and 8,703 manachised and franchised hotels, totaling 912,444 hotel rooms. H World Group manages a diverse range of hotel brands that cater to various segments of customers. These include economy brands...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Operating cash flow of 1.07B provides exceptional 218.29x coverage of minority interest expenses 4.92M, showing strong core operations.
  • Robust free cash flow of 955.34M exceeds capital expenditure of 117.70M by 8.12x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.
  • Operating cash flow of 1.07B provides exceptional 23.51x coverage of interest expenses 45.65M, showing strong debt service capability.
  • Operating cash flow of 1.07B provides strong 18.54x coverage of stock compensation 57.87M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Strong operating cash flow of 1.07B provides 2.11x coverage of SG&A expenses 509.69M, showing efficient operational cost management.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 1.07B barely covers its investment activities of (723.17M), with a coverage ratio of -1.48, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 1.07B provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (548.74M) with a -1.96 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • High receivables of 181.74M relative to inventory of 8.57M (21.21 ratio) suggests aggressive credit terms or collection difficulties, potentially masking revenue quality issues.
  • High financing cash flow of (447.61M) relative to working capital of (390.17M), which is 1.15x suggests concerning dependence on external funding for operational needs.
  • Operating cash flow of 1.07B barely covers operating expenses of (35.25M) with a -30.44 ratio, suggesting thin operational efficiency margins and limited flexibility.

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Lodging
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 MAR Marriott International Inc /Md/ 98.24 Bn 37.77 3.75 17.08 Bn
2 HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. 74.93 Bn 51.43 6.22 13.09 Bn
3 HTHT H World Group Ltd 16.57 Bn 29.82 4.76 5.22 Bn
4 H Hyatt Hotels Corp 16.03 Bn -308.35 2.26 4.56 Bn
5 WH Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. 7.74 Bn 49.28 3.77 2.63 Bn
6 CHH Choice Hotels International Inc /De 6.15 Bn 28.50 5.74 2.03 Bn
7 ATAT Atour Lifestyle Holdings Ltd 5.47 Bn 31.48 5.16 0.23 Bn
8 CVEO Civeo Corp 0.40 Bn -13.95 0.64 0.20 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.76 1.88
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 6.30 35.03
EV to Debt EV to Debt 1.30 3.56
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 7.46 8.28
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 6.78 15.04
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 7.08 42.92
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 0.41 0.84
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 1.94 0.57
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 9.93 -4.94
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 29.82 -9.64
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 0.14 1.70
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 98.20 7.38
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 1.78 0.85
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 8.05 7.54
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 19.84 -155,266.31
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) 16.03 -4.84
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) -8.49 122.26
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 14.10 -2.25
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 4.76 -107.49
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 11.34 3.84
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 18.83 12.05
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 19.91 2.05
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 8.40 -10.22
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 9.23 -17.22
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 10.00 5.20
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.05 0.47
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.46 0.13
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.40 0.54
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 0.85 1.20
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 3.13 1.44
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 19.84 -155,266.31
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 19.84 -155,266.31
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 31.20 -228.61
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 185.11 -214.73
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 24.69 -246.57
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 37.10 36.71
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 15.90 -250.50