Guess Inc (NYSE: GES)

Sector: Consumer Cyclical Industry: Apparel Retail CIK: 0000912463
Market Cap 880.82 Mn
P/B 1.73
P/E 10.96
P/S 0.28
ROIC (Qtr) 3.81
Div Yield % 1.79
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 7.16
Total Debt (Qtr) 1.65 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 3.24

About

Guess Inc., better known as GUESS?, is a prominent player in the global fashion industry, specializing in the design, marketing, distribution, and licensing of a wide range of contemporary apparel and accessories for men, women, and children. Since its inception in 1981, the company has been headquartered in Los Angeles, California, and has established itself as a reputable brand with a significant presence in the international fashion scene. GUESS? operates under various trademarks, including GUESS, GUESS?, GUESS U.S.A., GUESS JEANS, GUESS? and...

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Price action

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Tangible assets of 2.97B provide robust 10.27x coverage of other current liabilities 289.19M, indicating strong asset backing.
  • Robust tangible asset base of 2.97B provides 5.70x coverage of working capital 521.30M, indicating strong operational backing.
  • Cash position of 155.06M provides exceptional 15x coverage of minority interest expenses 10.34M, indicating strong liquidity.
  • Cash reserves of 155.06M provide solid 0.92x coverage of other non-current liabilities 168.83M, indicating strong liquidity.
  • Operating cash flow of 145.28M provides strong 9.50x coverage of operating expenses 15.29M, showing operational efficiency.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 145.28M barely covers its investment activities of (99.62M), with a coverage ratio of -1.46, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • With cash reserves of 155.06M against inventory of 692.27M, the 0.22 cash-to-inventory ratio suggests potential liquidity risks if inventory turnover slows, particularly concerning given current supply chain volatilities.
  • Operating cash flow of 145.28M provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (60.83M) with a -2.39 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Cash reserves of 155.06M provide limited coverage of acquisition spending of (12.08M), which is -12.84x, suggesting aggressive expansion might strain liquidity if market conditions deteriorate.
  • Free cash flow of 22.84M provides weak coverage of capital expenditures of 122.44M, with a 0.19 ratio suggesting additional external financing needs for growth initiatives.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Apparel Retail
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 TJX Tjx Companies Inc /De/ 175.80 Bn 34.34 2.98 13.19 Bn
2 ROST Ross Stores, Inc. 58.85 Bn 28.21 2.67 5.19 Bn
3 LULU lululemon athletica inc. 25.43 Bn 14.61 2.30 1.76 Bn
4 BURL Burlington Stores, Inc. 18.26 Bn 32.57 1.63 5.94 Bn
5 GAP Gap Inc 10.00 Bn 11.75 0.65 5.52 Bn
6 URBN Urban Outfitters Inc 7.11 Bn 14.53 1.18 1.18 Bn
7 ANF Abercrombie & Fitch Co /De/ 6.17 Bn 11.82 1.19 1.13 Bn
8 BOOT Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. 5.78 Bn 27.75 2.79 0.67 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.76 1.35
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 15.81 8.18
EV to Debt EV to Debt 1.39 4.33
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 20.48 -60.97
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 12.67 6.53
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 100.58 22.99
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 2.61 2.06
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 0.73 1.11
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 1.73 3.23
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 10.96 195.16
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 1.32 0.88
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 19.60 12.58
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.30 0.36
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 67.72 16.33
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 3.57 13.58
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -169.09 -5.40
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 8.95 89.63
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) -90.48 1.25
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) -1.04 13.95
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) -35.73 -16.93
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) -34.80 10.85
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) -43.85 6.10
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) -10.53 10.94
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) -87.48 -129.32
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 3.04 -1.75
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 1.05 1.40
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.23 0.06
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.19 0.38
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 1.63 1.59
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 3.24 1.31
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 3.57 13.58
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 3.57 13.58
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 5.90 2.72
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 3.57 -1.70
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 2.57 -2.76
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 42.40 40.52
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 2.60 -4.02