Genius Sports Ltd (GENI) Stock Analysis and Metrics

Genius Sports

NYSE: GENI

$6.31 ▲ +0.03 (+0.48%)

At close: Jul 17, 2026 · 3:59 PM UTC

Financial Ratios

Market Cap1.71 Bn

P/E9,016,930,625.50

P/S2.40

Div. Yield0.00

Revenue Growth (1y) (Qtr)30.53

Add ratio to table…

About

Genius Sports Limited is a B2B provider of scalable technology led products and services to the sports, sports betting and sports media industries. The company delivers live sports data, officiating tools, broadcast augmentation, fan engagement and advertising solutions that connect leagues, sportsbooks, broadcasters and brands with fans worldwide. Its mission is to be the operating system of modern sport, powering the global ecosystem that links sports, betting and media with every fan around the globe.

Genius generates revenue by selling sports technology services, betting technology content services and media technology content services to its customers. Revenue streams include live data feeds, oddsmaking, risk management, BetVision interactive streaming, broadcast augmentation tools, advertising campaign management, fan engagement platforms and licensing or usage based fees. The company also earns income from long term contracts that provide recurring minimum guarantees and revenue share arrangements tied to customers gross gaming revenue.

The company operates through the following segments: Sports Technology and Services, Betting Technology, Content and Services, and Media Technology, Content and Services.

• Sports Technology and Services: This segment provides data capture and analytics solutions for sports leagues, including optical tracking, performance analysis tools, semi automated officiating, broadcast augmentation and integrity services that help leagues improve operations and fan experience.

• Betting Technology, Content and Services: This segment supplies live sports data feeds, pre game and in game odds, oddsmaking, risk management, BetVision interactive streaming and related services to sportsbook operators enabling them to offer in game betting markets and manage liability.

• Media Technology, Content and Services: This segment offers fan engagement and advertising solutions such as the FanHub platform, Sports Innovation Lab consumer insights, digital content gamification and broadcast inventory activation for brands and agencies seeking to reach sports audiences with targeted campaigns.

Genius Sports Limited holds a leading position in the official data rights market with relationships covering over 400 sports leagues, over 550 sportsbook brands and over 250 media and advertising customers. Its primary competitors are Sportradar and Stats Perform. Competitive advantages stem from the proprietary GeniusIQ platform, the largest portfolio of official betting data, scalable technology, unique advertising technology, long term contracts with recurring revenue and a world class management team. The company’s deep integration with league operations and its ability to deliver real time data create high switching costs for customers. These factors enable Genius to maintain strong pricing power and steady cash flow generation.

The company serves a diverse customer base that includes major sports leagues such as the NFL, EPL, NBA, WNBA, NCAA, FIBA, FIFA, the PGA Tour and numerous regional competitions. Sportsbook customers comprise global operators like bet365, DraftKings, Flutter (which owns FanDuel), Entain (including BetMGM, Ladbrokes, Coral, Bwin and SuperSport), 888/William Hill, Betsson and Betway. B2B platform providers such as OpenBet and Kambi also rely on Genius for data and odds services. Media and advertising partners span brands like Diageo, Dr Pepper, Pepsi, Heineken, Bayer, Stellantis (Jeep/Dodge), LVMH and Buffalo Wild Wings, as well as broadcasters ESPN, CBS, NBC Sports, TNT Sports, NBA League Pass and NFL+. Sports properties including the LA Rams, LA Dodgers, Houston Astros and San Diego Padres use Genius services to reach fans through fan engagement and digital advertising solutions. Additionally, Genius works with collegiate conferences, international federations and emerging sports organizations to expand its data rights portfolio and technology footprint.

Investment Thesis

▲ Bull case

Genius is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the structural shift toward intent-based advertising in sports, leveraging its Moment Engine and FANHub:ID graph to deliver measurable outcomes that traditional impression-based models cannot match. The integration with 90% of the programmatic advertising ecosystem, including major SSPs and DSPs, creates immediate scalability with minimal friction, as evidenced by Samsung increasing spend by 220% after testing the self-serve CTV product. This early validation from a Tier 1 partner with strict evaluation criteria signals strong product-market fit and suggests the company is capturing a growing share of advertising budgets shifting toward performance-driven media. The fact that this momentum is building ahead of major events like the NBA Finals and FIFA World Cup—where the product is already live—means revenue acceleration is likely to be front-loaded in the second half of 2026, potentially exceeding current guidance which does not yet reflect the full ramp of these high-value partnerships. The combination of proprietary data, identity resolution, and real-time activation creates a defensible moat that competitors cannot easily replicate, especially as advertisers demand greater accountability for spend.
The Legend integration is unlocking synergistic value far beyond the initial cost-saving narrative, particularly through the convergence of official data, high-intent audiences, and predictive analytics in emerging markets like prediction markets. Genius and Legend together form the only platform capable of providing both the immutable data layer required for regulatory compliance and the audience activation engine necessary for customer acquisition—a dual capability that is becoming increasingly valuable as the prediction market ecosystem matures. The company’s early success onboarding high-profile market makers using low-latency data feeds demonstrates tangible traction, and the regulatory momentum toward official data (evidenced by CFTC engagement and league alignment) reduces long-term regulatory risk while increasing the addressable market. Crucially, the four identified revenue synergies—cross-sell, audience monetization, platform scaling, and distribution—are still in early execution, meaning their full financial impact is not yet reflected in current guidance. As Legend’s technology is scaled across Genius’ 400+ league and team partners, and as Genius data flows through Legend’s owned properties, the resulting network effects could drive disproportionate margin expansion and organic growth, transforming the combined entity into a true operating system for global sport.
Genius’s business model is inherently resilient to macroeconomic and industry volatility due to its contractual structure and focus on licensed, regulated operators, which insulates earnings from fluctuations in betting handle or hold. The company’s net revenue retention consistently ranging between 120% and 130% across its Sportsbook base reflects deep product stickiness and the effectiveness of its land-and-expand strategy—each renewal represents a pricing opportunity driven by additional content, products, and geographic expansion. This compounding mechanism is further strengthened by the shift in operator marketing spend from broad promotional offers to targeted, performance-based channels where Legend excels, as evidenced by Legend-acquired customers delivering 60% higher yield after one year. With over half of revenue generated outside the U.S., the company benefits from geographic diversification that reduces reliance on any single market’s regulatory or competitive dynamics. The recent extension of the NFL partnership through Super Bowl 2030 provides exceptional revenue visibility, and the company’s deliberate avoidance of B2B resellers ensures compliance and reduces counterparty risk. These structural advantages create a predictable, durable cash flow profile that supports sustained investment in high-return initiatives like the Moment Engine and Legend integration, even amid near-term integration costs.

Genius is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the structural shift toward intent-based advertising in sports, leveraging its Moment Engine and FANHub:ID graph to deliver measurable outcomes that traditional impression-based models cannot match. The integration with 90% of the programmatic advertising ecosystem, including major SSPs and DSPs, creates immediate scalability with minimal friction, as evidenced by Samsung increasing spend by 220% after testing the self-serve CTV product. This early validation from a Tier 1 partner with strict evaluation criteria signals strong product-market fit and suggests the company is capturing a growing share of advertising budgets shifting toward performance-driven media. The fact that this momentum is building ahead of major events like the NBA Finals and FIFA World Cup—where the product is already live—means revenue acceleration is likely to be front-loaded in the second half of 2026, potentially exceeding current guidance which does not yet reflect the full ramp of these high-value partnerships. The combination of proprietary data, identity resolution, and real-time activation creates a defensible moat that competitors cannot easily replicate, especially as advertisers demand greater accountability for spend.
The Legend integration is unlocking synergistic value far beyond the initial cost-saving narrative, particularly through the convergence of official data, high-intent audiences, and predictive analytics in emerging markets like prediction markets. Genius and Legend together form the only platform capable of providing both the immutable data layer required for regulatory compliance and the audience activation engine necessary for customer acquisition—a dual capability that is becoming increasingly valuable as the prediction market ecosystem matures. The company’s early success onboarding high-profile market makers using low-latency data feeds demonstrates tangible traction, and the regulatory momentum toward official data (evidenced by CFTC engagement and league alignment) reduces long-term regulatory risk while increasing the addressable market. Crucially, the four identified revenue synergies—cross-sell, audience monetization, platform scaling, and distribution—are still in early execution, meaning their full financial impact is not yet reflected in current guidance. As Legend’s technology is scaled across Genius’ 400+ league and team partners, and as Genius data flows through Legend’s owned properties, the resulting network effects could drive disproportionate margin expansion and organic growth, transforming the combined entity into a true operating system for global sport.
Genius’s business model is inherently resilient to macroeconomic and industry volatility due to its contractual structure and focus on licensed, regulated operators, which insulates earnings from fluctuations in betting handle or hold. The company’s net revenue retention consistently ranging between 120% and 130% across its Sportsbook base reflects deep product stickiness and the effectiveness of its land-and-expand strategy—each renewal represents a pricing opportunity driven by additional content, products, and geographic expansion. This compounding mechanism is further strengthened by the shift in operator marketing spend from broad promotional offers to targeted, performance-based channels where Legend excels, as evidenced by Legend-acquired customers delivering 60% higher yield after one year. With over half of revenue generated outside the U.S., the company benefits from geographic diversification that reduces reliance on any single market’s regulatory or competitive dynamics. The recent extension of the NFL partnership through Super Bowl 2030 provides exceptional revenue visibility, and the company’s deliberate avoidance of B2B resellers ensures compliance and reduces counterparty risk. These structural advantages create a predictable, durable cash flow profile that supports sustained investment in high-return initiatives like the Moment Engine and Legend integration, even amid near-term integration costs.

▼ Bear case

Genius’s current guidance may be overly optimistic regarding the near-term ramp of Legend-related synergies, particularly given the integration’s early stage and the historical pattern of acquisitions in the sports tech sector failing to deliver promised cross-sell and audience monetization benefits. While management highlights four specific synergies—customer cross-sell, audience monetization, platform scaling, and distribution—these remain largely unproven at scale, with only initial steps like embedding Genius products into Legend’s properties underway. The company’s acknowledgment that guidance does not yet include these synergies suggests they are not expected to meaningfully impact financials in 2026, raising questions about the timing and scale of their eventual contribution. Furthermore, the Legend acquisition was financed with a $825 million Term Loan A at SOFR+350bps, which, while favorable relative to initial expectations, still represents a significant increase in leverage for a company historically proud of its low-debt profile. Although management emphasized deleveraging intent by sizing the loan $25 million below the original structure, the added interest expense will pressure cash flow, especially if the anticipated second-half free cash flow rebound of $100 million fails to materialize due to integration costs or slower-than-expected synergy realization. The company’s history of seasonal cash outflows in the first half—exacerbated by one-time transaction costs—means any delay in synergy execution could prolong the period of negative free cash flow, forcing difficult choices between debt repayment and growth investment.
The prediction market opportunity, while frequently cited as a catalyst, remains highly speculative and contingent on evolving regulatory frameworks that could limit Genius’s ability to monetize its data assets. Management’s discussion of the opportunity hinges on the assumption that regulators will eventually mandate the use of official data, but the CFTC’s ongoing engagement process has yielded mixed responses, with exchanges arguing that latency—not data origin—should determine competitive advantage. If regulators ultimately reject a mandate for official data, Genius’s core differentiator—exclusive access to league-sanctioned data—could be undermined, reducing pricing power and opening the door to lower-cost alternatives. Additionally, the company’s reliance on short-term, flexible contracts with market makers, while prudent in an uncertain environment, hinders the development of predictable, long-term revenue streams. The fact that revenue from this segment is still described as being in “early days” with no clear path to scalability suggests it may remain a niche opportunity rather than a meaningful driver of group growth. Moreover, the intense competition and capital influx into prediction platforms—such as Kalshi’s recent funding—could lead to a race to the bottom on data pricing, especially if multiple vendors (including potential new entrants) begin offering comparable low-latency feeds, eroding Genius’s margin advantage in this nascent market.
Genius’s dependence on a concentrated base of sports league partnerships creates a latent vulnerability, particularly if key leagues pursue alternative data strategies or develop in-house capabilities that reduce reliance on third-party providers. While the company cites its recent expansion with Liga MX as evidence of winning the transition to AI-driven solutions like GeniusIQ, this represents only a single league agreement, and the broader trend toward leagues building internal analytics capabilities—potentially leveraging generative AI for automated event tagging or fan engagement—could diminish the long-term value of external data suppliers. The company’s assertion that “legacy manual data capture is obsolete” assumes a uniform and rapid adoption of its platform, but leagues with existing IT investments or data sovereignty concerns may resist full migration, opting instead for hybrid models that limit Genius’s reach. Furthermore, the emphasis on owned environments like Legend as a defense against AI commoditization overlooks the growing capability of large language models to scrape and synthesize sports data from public sources, which could undermine the exclusivity of Legend’s content ecosystem if not properly protected through technical or legal means. Although management expresses confidence in LLMs as a traffic driver, the lack of concrete measures to prevent data scraping or ensure reciprocal value exchange poses a risk to the sustainability of Legend’s audience engagement and the defensibility of its proprietary assets. This technological shift could ultimately erode the network effects that underpin both the Betting and Media segments, particularly if leagues, teams, or fans increasingly gravitate toward AI-native platforms that bypass traditional intermediaries like Genius.

Genius’s current guidance may be overly optimistic regarding the near-term ramp of Legend-related synergies, particularly given the integration’s early stage and the historical pattern of acquisitions in the sports tech sector failing to deliver promised cross-sell and audience monetization benefits. While management highlights four specific synergies—customer cross-sell, audience monetization, platform scaling, and distribution—these remain largely unproven at scale, with only initial steps like embedding Genius products into Legend’s properties underway. The company’s acknowledgment that guidance does not yet include these synergies suggests they are not expected to meaningfully impact financials in 2026, raising questions about the timing and scale of their eventual contribution. Furthermore, the Legend acquisition was financed with a $825 million Term Loan A at SOFR+350bps, which, while favorable relative to initial expectations, still represents a significant increase in leverage for a company historically proud of its low-debt profile. Although management emphasized deleveraging intent by sizing the loan $25 million below the original structure, the added interest expense will pressure cash flow, especially if the anticipated second-half free cash flow rebound of $100 million fails to materialize due to integration costs or slower-than-expected synergy realization. The company’s history of seasonal cash outflows in the first half—exacerbated by one-time transaction costs—means any delay in synergy execution could prolong the period of negative free cash flow, forcing difficult choices between debt repayment and growth investment.
The prediction market opportunity, while frequently cited as a catalyst, remains highly speculative and contingent on evolving regulatory frameworks that could limit Genius’s ability to monetize its data assets. Management’s discussion of the opportunity hinges on the assumption that regulators will eventually mandate the use of official data, but the CFTC’s ongoing engagement process has yielded mixed responses, with exchanges arguing that latency—not data origin—should determine competitive advantage. If regulators ultimately reject a mandate for official data, Genius’s core differentiator—exclusive access to league-sanctioned data—could be undermined, reducing pricing power and opening the door to lower-cost alternatives. Additionally, the company’s reliance on short-term, flexible contracts with market makers, while prudent in an uncertain environment, hinders the development of predictable, long-term revenue streams. The fact that revenue from this segment is still described as being in “early days” with no clear path to scalability suggests it may remain a niche opportunity rather than a meaningful driver of group growth. Moreover, the intense competition and capital influx into prediction platforms—such as Kalshi’s recent funding—could lead to a race to the bottom on data pricing, especially if multiple vendors (including potential new entrants) begin offering comparable low-latency feeds, eroding Genius’s margin advantage in this nascent market.
Genius’s dependence on a concentrated base of sports league partnerships creates a latent vulnerability, particularly if key leagues pursue alternative data strategies or develop in-house capabilities that reduce reliance on third-party providers. While the company cites its recent expansion with Liga MX as evidence of winning the transition to AI-driven solutions like GeniusIQ, this represents only a single league agreement, and the broader trend toward leagues building internal analytics capabilities—potentially leveraging generative AI for automated event tagging or fan engagement—could diminish the long-term value of external data suppliers. The company’s assertion that “legacy manual data capture is obsolete” assumes a uniform and rapid adoption of its platform, but leagues with existing IT investments or data sovereignty concerns may resist full migration, opting instead for hybrid models that limit Genius’s reach. Furthermore, the emphasis on owned environments like Legend as a defense against AI commoditization overlooks the growing capability of large language models to scrape and synthesize sports data from public sources, which could undermine the exclusivity of Legend’s content ecosystem if not properly protected through technical or legal means. Although management expresses confidence in LLMs as a traffic driver, the lack of concrete measures to prevent data scraping or ensure reciprocal value exchange poses a risk to the sustainability of Legend’s audience engagement and the defensibility of its proprietary assets. This technological shift could ultimately erode the network effects that underpin both the Betting and Media segments, particularly if leagues, teams, or fans increasingly gravitate toward AI-native platforms that bypass traditional intermediaries like Genius.

Product and Service Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Peer Comparison

Companies in the Internet Content & Information

S.No.	Ticker	Company	Market Cap	P/E	P/S	Total Debt (Qtr)
1	GOOG	Alphabet Inc.	4,330.11 Bn	27.03	10.25	77.50 Bn
2	META	Meta Platforms, Inc.	1,553.11 Bn	22.00	7.23	58.75 Bn
3	BIDU	Baidu, Inc.	320.91 Bn	2,283.88	22.76	8.95 Bn
4	AGGI	BILI Social International, Inc.	84.82 Bn	-675,355.91	157,792.74	-
5	JOYY	JOYY Inc.	70.39 Bn	33.64	33.13	0.01 Bn
6	NBIS	Nebius Group N.V.	59.20 Bn	369.77	67.43	8.45 Bn
7	RDDT	Reddit, Inc.	37.81 Bn	53.44	15.29	-
8	SJ	Scienjoy Holding Corp	37.35 Bn	-357.67	217.37	-

Research Tools

Developers

About

Investment Thesis

Geographical Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Product and Service Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Peer Comparison

Research Tools

Developers

About

Investment Thesis

Geographical Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Product and Service Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Peer Comparison

Create an account

Sign In

Reset Password