GCM Grosvenor Inc. (NASDAQ: GCMG)

Sector: Financial Services Industry: Asset Management CIK: 0001819796
Market Cap 524.92 Mn
P/B -18.53
P/E 30.82
P/S 0.99
ROIC (Qtr) 19.24
Div Yield % 4.78
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 9.79
Total Debt (Qtr) 481.54 Mn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) -65.16
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About

GCM Grosvenor Inc., known by its stock symbol GCMG, is a prominent player in the alternative asset management industry, boasting a 52-year history of operations. The company's business model is centered around investing across all major alternative investment strategies, with a high degree of adaptability in structuring its solutions to cater to each client's unique needs. As of December 31, 2023, GCM Grosvenor managed a total of $76.9 billion in Assets Under Management (AUM). GCM Grosvenor's primary sources of revenue are its private markets and...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Strong operating cash flow of 193.16M provides robust 0.40x coverage of total debt 481.54M, indicating excellent debt servicing capability and financial flexibility.
  • Robust free cash flow of 188.10M exceeds capital expenditure of 5.06M by 37.20x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.
  • Free cash flow of 188.10M provides exceptional 8.06x coverage of interest expense 23.33M, showing strong debt service ability.
  • Retained earnings of (27.23M) represent substantial 3.68x of equity (7.39M), indicating strong internal capital generation.
  • Strong tangible asset base of 656.65M provides 22.42x coverage of intangibles 29.29M, indicating robust asset quality.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 193.16M barely covers its investment activities of (21.20M), with a coverage ratio of -9.11, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 193.16M provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (22.92M) with a -8.43 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • The company's operating cash flow of 193.16M shows concerning coverage of stock compensation expenses of 84.96M, with a 2.27 ratio indicating potential earnings quality issues.
  • Free cash flow of 188.10M represents just -42.95x of debt issuance (4.38M), suggesting concerning reliance on leverage rather than internal cash generation for growth.
  • Operating cash flow of 193.16M shows concerning coverage of minority interest expenses of 80.29M, which is 2.41x, suggesting complex corporate structure risks.

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Product and Service Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Asset Management
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 BLK BlackRock, Inc. 199.59 Bn 85.40 21.98 15.04 Bn
2 BN BROOKFIELD Corp /ON/ 103.94 Bn 31.52 5.64 262.97 Bn
3 AMP Ameriprise Financial Inc 88.69 Bn 55.02 7.20 5.89 Bn
4 BX Blackstone Inc. 88.51 Bn 49.39 10.93 12.89 Bn
5 KKR KKR & Co. Inc. 55.86 Bn 28.33 13.23 53.12 Bn
6 STT State Street Corp 46.52 Bn 21.77 3.91 34.72 Bn
7 NTRS Northern Trust Corp 34.14 Bn 33.31 6.71 15.64 Bn
8 RJF Raymond James Financial Inc 32.89 Bn 37.63 4.14 5.10 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 1.34 0.94
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 5.84 41.10
EV to Debt EV to Debt 1.91 15.28
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 16.17 23.47
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 8.06 47.80
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 6.39 38.62
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.76 7.81
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 1.74 27.38
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B -18.53 2.34
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 30.82 11.81
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 1.48 4.66
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 64.70 -5.56
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.44 1.73
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 12.54 49.83
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 3.02 25.16
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) 72.00 -35.10
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 85.63 15.43
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 0.00 1.65
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 77.67 -90.82
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 147.58 35.24
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 48.27 -22.13
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 97.95 -163.05
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 106.06 -20.61
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 57.68 220.21
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 17.28 -53.96
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.80 0.22
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.12 0.36
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio 0.00 0.38
Current Ratio Current Ratio 0.00 0.86
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) -65.16 0.70
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 3.02 25.16
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 3.02 25.16
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 14.40 -114.76
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 12.89 -127.24
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 8.62 -150.97
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 100.00 67.88
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 6.20 -148.68