First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: FWRG)

Sector: Consumer Cyclical Industry: Restaurants CIK: 0001789940
Market Cap 967.32 Mn
P/B 1.59
P/E 194.75
P/S 0.83
ROIC (Qtr) 0.75
Div Yield % 0.00
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 25.60
Total Debt (Qtr) 982.35 Mn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 1.62

About

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc., also known as FWRG, operates in the restaurant industry with a focus on daytime dining. The company is a pioneer in this space, offering made-to-order breakfast, brunch, and lunch dishes made from the freshest ingredients. With a commitment to operational excellence, a culinary mission centered around a fresh, continuously evolving menu, and a "You First" culture, First Watch has established a strong reputation in the industry. The company generates revenue through its primary products and services, which include...

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Price action

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Operating cash flow of 130.38M provides strong 12.96x coverage of stock compensation 10.06M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Tangible assets of 1.12B provide exceptional 425.78x coverage of deferred revenue 2.64M, showing strong service capability backing.
  • Operating cash flow of 130.38M provides strong 49.44x coverage of deferred revenue 2.64M, indicating service delivery capability.
  • Operating cash flow of 130.38M provides solid 0.74x coverage of current liabilities 176.77M, showing strong operational health.
  • Operating cash flow of 130.38M fully covers other non-current liabilities 37.07M by 3.52x, showing strong long-term stability.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 130.38M barely covers its investment activities of (216.50M), with a coverage ratio of -0.60, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Cash reserves of 20.71M provide limited coverage of acquisition spending of (54.92M), which is -0.38x, suggesting aggressive expansion might strain liquidity if market conditions deteriorate.
  • Free cash flow of (30.41M) provides weak coverage of capital expenditures of 160.78M, with a -0.19 ratio suggesting additional external financing needs for growth initiatives.
  • Operating earnings of 23.57M show weak coverage of depreciation charges of 101.61M, with a 0.23 ratio indicating high capital intensity and potential reinvestment needs.
  • High depreciation of 101.61M relative to operating cash flow of 130.38M, which is 0.78x suggests significant maintenance capital requirements affecting free cash flow.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Restaurants
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 MCD Mcdonalds Corp 222.05 Bn 26.39 8.45 55.82 Bn
2 SBUX Starbucks Corp 95.51 Bn 51.45 2.57 26.61 Bn
3 CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc 50.94 Bn 33.15 4.32 4.98 Bn
4 YUM Yum Brands Inc 43.17 Bn 29.83 5.36 11.55 Bn
5 QSR Restaurant Brands International Inc. 22.43 Bn 24.33 2.42 15.64 Bn
6 DRI Darden Restaurants Inc 21.91 Bn 19.91 1.77 6.16 Bn
7 YUMC Yum China Holdings, Inc. 18.12 Bn 20.05 1.57 1.84 Bn
8 DPZ Dominos Pizza Inc 14.57 Bn 24.72 3.01 5.05 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 1.11 2.05
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 14.63 16.57
EV to Debt EV to Debt 1.94 4.75
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 80.89 3.45
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 15.38 9.76
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF -62.72 29.06
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.97 6.55
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 1.63 2.40
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 1.59 -1.40
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 194.75 13.35
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Dividend Coverage Ratio 0.00 -9.56
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 18.72
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.00 0.84
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 30.41
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 1.56 -86.85
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -35.08 -24.56
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) -59.49 35.50
Dividend Growth (1y) % Dividend Growth (1y) % 0.00 -0.72
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) -51.07 -564.81
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 2.61 25.78
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) -47.01 -507.68
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) -74.23 -41.98
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) -77.14 -126.51
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) -662.82 5,724.78
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 7.90 23.70
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.68 0.99
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.00 0.07
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.12 0.78
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 0.25 1.47
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 1.62 0.05
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 1.56 -86.85
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 1.56 -86.85
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 10.70 7.71
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 2.02 -2.27
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 0.72 -1.97
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 20.40 34.04
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 0.40 -3.69