Presidio Production (FTW) stock price is $10.45, up 2.05% on the day, as of Nov 13, 2026. It has a market cap of $300.45Mn, and is classified in the Oil and Gas Exploration and Production industry (Energy sector).
Enterprise Value
Margins
P/FCF
Key Stats
Market Cap300.45 Mn
P/E-8.29
FCF (Yr)17.31 Mn
ROA (Yr)0.39
EV to EBIT-2.11
Net Income (Yr)55.88 Mn
Enterprise Value209.21 Mn
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About
Presidio Investment Holdings LLC is an independent energy company headquartered in Texas that focuses on oil and gas exploration and production. The company’s operations are concentrated in the Western Anadarko Basin, which spans parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. It pursues a strategy of acquiring existing producing assets and applying engineering expertise to enhance performance and extend asset life. As of December 31, 2025, it owned interests in 1,877 net operated…
Presidio Investment Holdings LLC is an independent energy company headquartered in Texas that focuses on oil and gas exploration and production. The company’s operations are concentrated in the Western Anadarko Basin, which spans parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. It pursues a strategy of acquiring existing producing assets and applying engineering expertise to enhance performance and extend asset life. As of December 31, 2025, it owned interests in 1,877 net operated and non operated proved developed producing wells. Its average net daily production for the year was approximately 21.1 MBoe/d. The firm’s proved reserves totaled 89,903 MBoe of oil equivalent, with a present value of its proved reserves discounted at ten percent of $516,353 million. It maintains a workforce of 135 employees, the majority of whom are full time.
Presidio Investment Holdings LLC generates revenue primarily from the sale of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids produced from its wells. The company markets its production to purchasers at market prices and also earns fees from field services related to its operations. In 2025, oil sales contributed $81.6 million, natural gas sales contributed $50.3 million, and natural gas liquids sales contributed $45.9 million, for a total of $177.8 million from commodity sales. Field services added $1.2 million, bringing total revenue to $179.1 million for the year. The average realized price per barrel of oil was $63.37, per thousand cubic feet of natural gas was $1.95, and per barrel of natural gas liquids was $21.86. The company uses derivative contracts to lock in prices for a portion of its output, which helps stabilize cash flow.
Presidio Investment Holdings LLC operates in a highly competitive oil and natural gas industry where larger integrated competitors possess greater financial and technical resources. Despite this scale disadvantage, the company differentiates itself by focusing on the acquisition of low decline, long life assets that generate stable cash flows. Its emphasis on operational efficiency results in cash operating costs that are below those of many peers. The firm’s deep expertise in the Western Anadarko Basin enables it to identify and integrate acquisitions effectively. This expertise also supports consistent generation of cash flow across a range of commodity price environments.
The company’s customer base consists primarily of energy traders, midstream operators, and refineries that purchase its oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. In 2025, the largest customers by accounts receivable were Valero Marketing & Supply representing 32.66%, EDF Inc. at 10.92%, DCP Midstream at 10.64%, and Spire Marketing Inc. at 10.03% of the total. These relationships provide a diversified outlet for the company’s production and help secure competitive market prices. The firm also sells smaller volumes to additional regional buyers and utility companies as part of its regular marketing activities.
Sector:EnergySector rationaleThe company's primary revenue is derived from oil and gas exploration and production, specifically selling oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids to refineries and traders. Its core business model revolves around the extraction and sale of energy molecules, which fits squarely within the Energy sector.Industries:Oil and Gas Exploration and ProductionOil and Gas Exploration and ProductionPrimaryPresidio Production focuses on oil and gas exploration and production, generating the vast majority of its revenue from the sale of produced oil ($81.6 million), natural gas ($50.3 million), and natural gas liquids ($45.9 million). The company operates 1,877 net proved developed producing wells in the Western Anadarko Basin.Oilfield ServicesOilfield ServicesSecondaryThe company earns additional revenue from providing field services related to its operations, which contributed $1.2 million to its total revenue in 2025.Classified using BQ-MICSCIK: 0002083125
Bull & bear
Investment Thesis
▲ Bull case
Presidio's AI-driven Asset Intelligence initiative represents a structural advantage that the market is overlooking, with early results showing a one% production uplift through April 2026 and a targeted three to five% annual increase across its existing asset base. This technology platform, built on proprietary oil and gas domain models trained on years of operational data including voice submissions from field pumpers and well files, enables real-time well-level decisions that directly convert data into cash flow. The establishment of FTW Technologies as a dedicated business unit and the designation of Presidio AI Astronauts as internal ambassadors indicate a committed, organization-wide effort to scale this innovation beyond incremental gains. Crucially, management explicitly states that the intellectual property developed has applications beyond Presidio's own acreage, suggesting a future monetization pathway through licensing or standalone value creation that is not reflected in current valuations. This positions Presidio not just as an operator but as a technology-enabled cash flow generator with defensible, scalable advantages in an industry where operational efficiency is increasingly tied to data analytics.
The Canyon Creek acquisition, while framed as a traditional add-on, contains embedded catalysts for dividend growth and multiple expansion that are underappreciated. Management estimates the assets will generate approximately 21.4 MMcfe/d of net PDP production with a base decline of only 11% per year—significantly lower than industry averages for comparable basins—and projects net PDP reserves of 100 Bcfe with a PV-10 of $100 million. More importantly, the company explicitly states that the incremental cash flow from Canyon Creek will support an increase in the anticipated annualized dividend from $1.35 to $1.50 per share post-close, representing an 11% increase in yield. Combined with the $1.0 billion Goldman Sachs ABS Warehouse Facility providing low-cost funding for the $60 million cash portion of the deal, this acquisition is immediately accretive to free cash flow per share and sets a precedent for using the land-and-expand strategy to systematically grow dividends—a direct translation of acquisition activity into shareholder returns that the market may be pricing as purely growth-oriented rather than yield-enhancing.
Presidio's capital structure and hedging program provide a stable foundation for dividend sustainability that is being underestimated amid near-term commodity volatility. As of March 31, 2026, the company reported total liquidity of $48.7 million, including $20.7 million in unrestricted cash and $28.0 million of undrawn revolver capacity, alongside a Net Debt of $264.4 million. With expected Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $30 million, this implies a leverage ratio of roughly 2.2x on an annualized basis—well within comfortable ranges for a yield-focused energy operator. The hedge book, restructured at close, provides multi-year cash flow visibility across oil, natural gas, and NGL production, with strike prices that reflect current market realities (e.g., $57.35/bbl for oil in Q2 2026, $6.23/MMBtu for natural gas). This eliminates near-term price risk as a threat to dividend coverage, allowing the company to focus on operational execution and acquisition integration. The market may be overemphasizing commodity price sensitivity while underweighting the protective effect of these hedges and the company's low-decline, producing-asset model, which generates substantial free cash flow even in flat price environments.
Presidio's AI-driven Asset Intelligence initiative represents a structural advantage that the market is overlooking, with early results showing a one% production uplift through April 2026 and a targeted three to five% annual increase across its existing asset base. This technology platform, built on proprietary oil and gas domain models trained on years of operational data including voice submissions from field pumpers and well files, enables real-time well-level decisions that directly convert data into cash flow. The establishment of FTW Technologies as a dedicated business unit and the designation of Presidio AI Astronauts as internal ambassadors indicate a committed, organization-wide effort to scale this innovation beyond incremental gains. Crucially, management explicitly states that the intellectual property developed has applications beyond Presidio's own acreage, suggesting a future monetization pathway through licensing or standalone value creation that is not reflected in current valuations. This positions Presidio not just as an operator but as a technology-enabled cash flow generator with defensible, scalable advantages in an industry where operational efficiency is increasingly tied to data analytics.
The Canyon Creek acquisition, while framed as a traditional add-on, contains embedded catalysts for dividend growth and multiple expansion that are underappreciated. Management estimates the assets will generate approximately 21.4 MMcfe/d of net PDP production with a base decline of only 11% per year—significantly lower than industry averages for comparable basins—and projects net PDP reserves of 100 Bcfe with a PV-10 of $100 million. More importantly, the company explicitly states that the incremental cash flow from Canyon Creek will support an increase in the anticipated annualized dividend from $1.35 to $1.50 per share post-close, representing an 11% increase in yield. Combined with the $1.0 billion Goldman Sachs ABS Warehouse Facility providing low-cost funding for the $60 million cash portion of the deal, this acquisition is immediately accretive to free cash flow per share and sets a precedent for using the land-and-expand strategy to systematically grow dividends—a direct translation of acquisition activity into shareholder returns that the market may be pricing as purely growth-oriented rather than yield-enhancing.
Presidio's capital structure and hedging program provide a stable foundation for dividend sustainability that is being underestimated amid near-term commodity volatility. As of March 31, 2026, the company reported total liquidity of $48.7 million, including $20.7 million in unrestricted cash and $28.0 million of undrawn revolver capacity, alongside a Net Debt of $264.4 million. With expected Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $30 million, this implies a leverage ratio of roughly 2.2x on an annualized basis—well within comfortable ranges for a yield-focused energy operator. The hedge book, restructured at close, provides multi-year cash flow visibility across oil, natural gas, and NGL production, with strike prices that reflect current market realities (e.g., $57.35/bbl for oil in Q2 2026, $6.23/MMBtu for natural gas). This eliminates near-term price risk as a threat to dividend coverage, allowing the company to focus on operational execution and acquisition integration. The market may be overemphasizing commodity price sensitivity while underweighting the protective effect of these hedges and the company's low-decline, producing-asset model, which generates substantial free cash flow even in flat price environments.
Presidio's heavy reliance on acquisition-driven growth, particularly the Canyon Creek deal, masks significant integration and execution risks that could undermine its dividend sustainability thesis. The company acknowledges that realizing the anticipated benefits of the Transaction depends on reducing operating costs, managing growth profitably, maintaining customer and supplier relationships, and successfully integrating the Canyon Creek assets—factors explicitly called out in its forward-looking statements as potential points of failure. With $1.4 billion of bids in process across multiple transactions, there is a growing risk that management's focus shifts toward deal-making at the expense of operational discipline, especially given the historical challenges oil and gas operators face in realizing synergies from acquisitions. The Canyon Creek assets alone comprise 55 active producing wells with an estimated base decline of 11% per year, requiring continuous optimization just to maintain flat production—meaning any misstep in integration or operational execution could quickly erode the expected cash flow uplift. Furthermore, the issuance of 2,173,913 shares as partial consideration represents approximately 7.3% dilution to existing Class A common shareholders (based on 27,652,068 shares outstanding), which could offset per-share dividend growth if the assets underperform relative to expectations.
The AI and Asset Intelligence initiative, while innovative, remains unproven at scale and may represent a distraction from core operational priorities rather than a near-term value driver. Although Presidio reports a one% production uplift through April 2026 toward its three to five% 2026 target, this early progress is minimal and could easily be attributed to normal operational variability or seasonal factors rather than the AI platform. The company admits that the intellectual property being built at FTW Technologies has applications beyond its own acreage—a statement that, while framed as opportunistic, also implies significant investment is being made into a toolset whose primary monetization path is uncertain and likely years away. In the meantime, capital and managerial attention are being diverted to building an AI development team and organizing an Asset Intelligence group, with no clear metrics on ROI or payback period. Given that Presidio's model hinges on acquiring and optimizing existing producing wells without drilling, any slowdown in core operational improvements due to internal focus on unproven technology could directly impact the free cash flow generation that underpins its dividend commitment.
Commodity price volatility presents a more immediate and underappreciated threat to Presidio's dividend model than its hedging program suggests, particularly due to basis risk and hedge roll-off effects. While the company's hedge book shows strike prices for natural gas swaps that appear favorable (e.g., $6.23/MMBtu in Q2 2026), the accompanying basis swaps reveal significant negative values—such as $(0.49)/MMBtu in Q2 2026 and $(0.58)/MMBtu in Q3 2026—which indicate that the company is locked into receiving less than the Henry Hub benchmark for a substantial portion of its gas production. This basis risk could substantially reduce realized prices even if headline commodity levels remain stable. Furthermore, the hedge volumes show a steep decline over time, with natural gas swap volumes dropping from 6,264 BBtu in Q2 2026 to just 5,361 BBtu by Q4 2026 and falling to minimal levels thereafter, meaning protection diminishes rapidly beyond 2026. With natural gas representing 57% of production mix, any sustained drop in regional prices or worsening basis differentials could quickly erode cash flow, challenging the company's ability to maintain, let alone increase, its dividend. The market may be assuming the hedges provide comprehensive, long-term insulation, when in reality they offer only partial, short-term coverage with notable gaps in key product streams.}
Presidio's heavy reliance on acquisition-driven growth, particularly the Canyon Creek deal, masks significant integration and execution risks that could undermine its dividend sustainability thesis. The company acknowledges that realizing the anticipated benefits of the Transaction depends on reducing operating costs, managing growth profitably, maintaining customer and supplier relationships, and successfully integrating the Canyon Creek assets—factors explicitly called out in its forward-looking statements as potential points of failure. With $1.4 billion of bids in process across multiple transactions, there is a growing risk that management's focus shifts toward deal-making at the expense of operational discipline, especially given the historical challenges oil and gas operators face in realizing synergies from acquisitions. The Canyon Creek assets alone comprise 55 active producing wells with an estimated base decline of 11% per year, requiring continuous optimization just to maintain flat production—meaning any misstep in integration or operational execution could quickly erode the expected cash flow uplift. Furthermore, the issuance of 2,173,913 shares as partial consideration represents approximately 7.3% dilution to existing Class A common shareholders (based on 27,652,068 shares outstanding), which could offset per-share dividend growth if the assets underperform relative to expectations.
The AI and Asset Intelligence initiative, while innovative, remains unproven at scale and may represent a distraction from core operational priorities rather than a near-term value driver. Although Presidio reports a one% production uplift through April 2026 toward its three to five% 2026 target, this early progress is minimal and could easily be attributed to normal operational variability or seasonal factors rather than the AI platform. The company admits that the intellectual property being built at FTW Technologies has applications beyond its own acreage—a statement that, while framed as opportunistic, also implies significant investment is being made into a toolset whose primary monetization path is uncertain and likely years away. In the meantime, capital and managerial attention are being diverted to building an AI development team and organizing an Asset Intelligence group, with no clear metrics on ROI or payback period. Given that Presidio's model hinges on acquiring and optimizing existing producing wells without drilling, any slowdown in core operational improvements due to internal focus on unproven technology could directly impact the free cash flow generation that underpins its dividend commitment.
Commodity price volatility presents a more immediate and underappreciated threat to Presidio's dividend model than its hedging program suggests, particularly due to basis risk and hedge roll-off effects. While the company's hedge book shows strike prices for natural gas swaps that appear favorable (e.g., $6.23/MMBtu in Q2 2026), the accompanying basis swaps reveal significant negative values—such as $(0.49)/MMBtu in Q2 2026 and $(0.58)/MMBtu in Q3 2026—which indicate that the company is locked into receiving less than the Henry Hub benchmark for a substantial portion of its gas production. This basis risk could substantially reduce realized prices even if headline commodity levels remain stable. Furthermore, the hedge volumes show a steep decline over time, with natural gas swap volumes dropping from 6,264 BBtu in Q2 2026 to just 5,361 BBtu by Q4 2026 and falling to minimal levels thereafter, meaning protection diminishes rapidly beyond 2026. With natural gas representing 57% of production mix, any sustained drop in regional prices or worsening basis differentials could quickly erode cash flow, challenging the company's ability to maintain, let alone increase, its dividend. The market may be assuming the hedges provide comprehensive, long-term insulation, when in reality they offer only partial, short-term coverage with notable gaps in key product streams.}