Erie Indemnity Co (NASDAQ: ERIE)

Sector: Financial Services Industry: Insurance Brokers CIK: 0000922621
Market Cap 13.10 Bn
P/B 9.66
P/E 45.46
P/S 4.72
ROIC (Qtr) 25.41
Div Yield % 2.10
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 6.69
Total Debt (Qtr) 0.00
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.00

About

Erie Indemnity Company, often recognized as Erie Insurance Group, operates in the insurance industry, specifically focusing on property and casualty insurance. Established in 1925, the company has been functioning as the attorney-in-fact for the subscribers at the Erie Insurance Exchange, managing the affairs of this Pennsylvania-domiciled reciprocal insurer. Erie Insurance Group's operations are divided into two main segments: policy issuance and renewal services, and administrative services. The policy issuance and renewal services segment encompasses...

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Price action

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Robust free cash flow of 576.99M exceeds capital expenditure of 131.57M by 4.39x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.
  • Operating cash flow of 708.56M provides solid 0.79x coverage of current liabilities 897.57M, showing strong operational health.
  • Operating cash flow of 708.56M fully covers other non-current liabilities 117.89M by 6.01x, showing strong long-term stability.
  • Robust tangible asset base of 3.32B provides 5.54x coverage of working capital 600.33M, indicating strong operational backing.
  • Tangible assets of 3.32B provide robust 15.25x coverage of other current liabilities 217.94M, indicating strong asset backing.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 708.56M barely covers its investment activities of (157.56M), with a coverage ratio of -4.50, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 708.56M provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (250.08M) with a -2.83 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Long-term investments of 1.17B represent a high 2.10x of fixed assets 557.61M, indicating potential overexposure to financial assets versus operational capabilities.
  • Retained earnings of 3.47B provide limited buffer against comprehensive income items of (31.25M), which is -110.97x, indicating elevated exposure to market risks.
  • Tax assets of 0 provide limited offset against tax liabilities of 19.78M, which is 0x, indicating potential future cash flow pressure from tax obligations.

Product and Service Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Insurance Brokers
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 MMC Marsh & Mclennan Companies, Inc. 92.62 Bn 29.47 4.67 21.43 Bn
2 AON Aon plc 74.51 Bn 27.41 4.38 17.44 Bn
3 AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. 55.76 Bn 51.09 5.25 13.69 Bn
4 BRO Brown & Brown, Inc. 22.82 Bn 108.30 13.93 7.97 Bn
5 WTW Willis Towers Watson Plc 22.12 Bn 46.77 5.80 5.91 Bn
6 ERIE Erie Indemnity Co 13.10 Bn 45.46 4.72 0.00 Bn
7 CRVL Corvel Corp 3.53 Bn 33.49 3.78 0.02 Bn
8 ARX Accelerant Holdings 2.62 Bn 96.44 4.35 0.12 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 3.93 0.83
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 34.62 26.54
EV to Debt EV to Debt 0.00 10.83
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 35.52 15.57
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 36.59 12.32
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 60.54 38.93
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.00 -1,866.90
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 4.70 2.59
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 9.66 3.17
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 45.46 24.79
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 2.59 0.83
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 38.60 31.35
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 5.46 1.08
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 43.71 18.16
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 0.00 -4.53
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -33.24 423.33
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 157.02 -3.76
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 7.06 -1.10
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 15.87 -9.09
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 14.23 -5.72
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 16.26 8.13
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 16.26 -4.46
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 15.92 -68.33
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 23.43 -67.66
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 14.23 52.95
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 1.22 0.62
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.30 0.16
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.63 0.54
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 1.67 2.11
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.00 0.93
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 0.00 -4.53
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 0.00 -4.53
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 20.30 6.16
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 20.30 -108.04
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 20.30 -14.94
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 18.00 53.35
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 16.00 -17.46