Ellington Financial Inc. (NYSE: EFC)

Sector: Real Estate Industry: REIT - Mortgage CIK: 0001411342
Market Cap 1.29 Bn
P/B 0.73
P/E 10.21
P/S 3.91
ROIC (Qtr) 0.64
Div Yield % 12.44
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 23.56
Total Debt (Qtr) 15.57 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 8.82

About

Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC), a real estate investment trust (REIT), operates in the financial services industry. The company, formed in July 2007, is externally managed and advised by Ellington Financial Management LLC, an affiliate of Ellington Management Group, L.L.C. Ellington Financial's primary objective is to generate attractive, risk-adjusted total returns for its stockholders by making investments in mortgage-related, consumer-related, corporate-related, and other financial assets. The company's main business activities revolve around...

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Price action

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Free cash flow of (768.13M) provides excellent 4.35x coverage of dividends (176.48M), indicating sustainable shareholder returns.
  • Cash position of 205.58M provides exceptional 59.07x coverage of minority interest expenses 3.48M, indicating strong liquidity.
  • Strong tangible asset base of 17.84B provides 110.58x coverage of acquisition spending 161.37M, enabling strategic growth.
  • Cash position of 205.58M fully covers payables of 90.50M by 2.27x, showing strong vendor relationship management.
  • Tangible assets of 17.84B provide robust 89.08x coverage of receivables 200.33M, showing strong asset quality.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of (768.13M) barely covers its investment activities of (2.77B), with a coverage ratio of 0.28, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Cash reserves of 205.58M provide limited coverage of acquisition spending of 161.37M, which is 1.27x, suggesting aggressive expansion might strain liquidity if market conditions deteriorate.
  • The company's operating cash flow of (768.13M) shows concerning coverage of stock compensation expenses of 2.94M, with a -261.62 ratio indicating potential earnings quality issues.
  • Operating cash flow of (768.13M) provides minimal -270.75x coverage of tax expenses of 2.84M, suggesting potential tax planning inefficiencies or unsustainable tax positions.
  • Operating cash flow of (768.13M) barely covers operating expenses of 80.04M with a -9.60 ratio, suggesting thin operational efficiency margins and limited flexibility.

Peer comparison

Companies in the REIT - Mortgage
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 NLY Annaly Capital Management Inc 13.57 Bn 10.12 7.94 107.02 Bn
2 AGNC AGNC Investment Corp. 11.33 Bn 16.49 30.46 95.01 Bn
3 STWD Starwood Property Trust, Inc. 6.34 Bn 17.32 3.51 21.43 Bn
4 RITM Rithm Capital Corp. 5.69 Bn 7.32 1.14 34.97 Bn
5 BXMT Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. 3.26 Bn 30.37 6.41 15.46 Bn
6 ARR Armour Residential REIT, Inc. 1.84 Bn 35.07 15.78 16.56 Bn
7 DX Dynex Capital Inc 1.60 Bn 9.10 6.93 11.75 Bn
8 ABR Arbor Realty Trust Inc 1.50 Bn 9.82 2.84 10.40 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.89 0.83
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO -20.75 -102.96
EV to Debt EV to Debt 1.02 1.31
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 100.77 -260.73
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 141.93 -16.37
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF -20.75 3.47
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 12.34 9.18
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 48.28 26.77
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 0.73 0.68
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 10.21 -4.85
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 0.62 -0.55
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 117.30 29.47
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 1.56 1.15
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) -20.29 57.60
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 0.00 -0.17
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) 0.00 37.60
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) -9.95 24.22
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) -4.88 4.53
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 15.62 17.83
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) -0.63 9.86
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 17.43 20.98
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 17.43 11.17
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 2.31 59.25
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) -108.33 59.63
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 2.08 20.65
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.02 0.04
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) -0.22 0.83
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio 0.00 0.00
Current Ratio Current Ratio 0.00 0.00
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 8.82 5.05
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 0.00 -0.17
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 0.00 -0.17
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 47.90 137.11
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 47.90 142.19
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 47.90 129.16
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 91.20 117.97
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 38.30 125.89