Dominos Pizza Inc (NASDAQ: DPZ)

Sector: Consumer Cyclical Industry: Restaurants CIK: 0001286681
Market Cap 14.57 Bn
P/B -3.68
P/E 24.72
P/S 3.01
ROIC (Qtr) 62.28
Div Yield % 1.99
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 6.20
Total Debt (Qtr) 5.05 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) -1.28

About

Dominos Pizza Inc., commonly known as Domino's, is a prominent player in the food service industry, specifically in the pizza delivery and carryout segments. With over 20,500 locations in more than 90 markets worldwide, Domino's has established itself as a highly recognized global brand. The company's operations are divided into two primary service models: delivery and carryout, which it offers through a vast network of franchise owners and company-owned stores. Domino's business model is multi-faceted, generating revenue through various channels....

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Price action

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Healthy cash reserves of 342.23M provide 6.75x coverage of short-term debt 50.68M, demonstrating strong liquidity position and minimal refinancing risk.
  • Operating cash flow of 730.27M provides strong 18.25x coverage of stock compensation 40.01M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Strong operating cash flow of 730.27M provides 1.59x coverage of SG&A expenses 460.31M, showing efficient operational cost management.
  • Robust free cash flow of 631.52M exceeds capital expenditure of 98.75M by 6.40x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.
  • Operating cash flow of 730.27M provides solid 1.35x coverage of current liabilities 539.15M, showing strong operational health.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 730.27M provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (223.43M) with a -3.27 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • High receivables of 277.18M relative to inventory of 71.16M (3.90 ratio) suggests aggressive credit terms or collection difficulties, potentially masking revenue quality issues.
  • Free cash flow of 631.52M represents just -4.22x of debt issuance (149.47M), suggesting concerning reliance on leverage rather than internal cash generation for growth.
  • Operating cash flow of 730.27M is outpaced by equity issuance of (378.02M) (-1.93 ratio), indicating concerning reliance on equity markets for funding operations.
  • Cash position of 342.23M provides only 1.75x coverage of interest expenses of 195.82M, indicating potential refinancing risks in a rising rate environment.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Restaurants
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 MCD Mcdonalds Corp 222.05 Bn 26.39 8.45 55.82 Bn
2 SBUX Starbucks Corp 95.51 Bn 51.45 2.57 26.61 Bn
3 CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc 50.94 Bn 33.15 4.32 4.98 Bn
4 YUM Yum Brands Inc 43.17 Bn 29.83 5.36 11.55 Bn
5 QSR Restaurant Brands International Inc. 22.43 Bn 24.33 2.42 15.64 Bn
6 DRI Darden Restaurants Inc 21.91 Bn 19.91 1.77 6.16 Bn
7 YUMC Yum China Holdings, Inc. 18.12 Bn 20.05 1.57 1.84 Bn
8 DPZ Dominos Pizza Inc 14.57 Bn 24.72 3.01 5.05 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 11.62 2.05
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 26.43 16.57
EV to Debt EV to Debt 3.82 4.75
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 20.17 3.45
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 18.92 9.76
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 30.56 29.06
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.32 6.55
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 3.98 2.40
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B -3.68 -1.40
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 24.72 13.35
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 2.64 -9.56
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 37.70 18.72
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 6.73 0.84
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 36.18 30.41
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 4.89 -86.85
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) 15.54 -24.56
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) -8.62 35.50
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 17.25 -0.72
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 1.50 -564.81
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 7.45 25.78
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 6.04 -507.68
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 7.67 -41.98
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 4.93 -126.51
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 26.64 5,724.78
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 5.94 23.70
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 2.92 0.99
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.27 0.07
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.63 0.78
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 1.61 1.47
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) -1.28 0.05
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 4.89 -86.85
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 4.89 -86.85
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 21.50 7.71
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 19.73 -2.27
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 15.70 -1.97
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 39.80 34.04
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 12.20 -3.69