Dana
NYSE: DAN
$27.25 ▼ -0.08  (-0.31%)
At close: Jul 13, 2026 · 3:59 PM UTC
Financial Ratios
Market Cap2.88 Bn
P/E2.51
P/S0.38
Div. Yield0.01
ROIC (Qtr)0.00
Total Debt (Qtr)1.26 Bn
Revenue Growth (1y) (Qtr)4.88
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About

Dana Incorporated is a world leader in providing power conveyance and energy management solutions for on highway vehicles. The company designs manufactures and sells axles driveshafts transmissions sealing thermal products and electrification components such as motors inverters controllers e axle systems e transmission systems and digital solutions. These products improve the efficiency performance and sustainability of light and commercial vehicles powered by internal…

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Sector: Consumer Cyclical Industry: Auto Parts CIK: 0000026780

Investment Thesis

▲ Bull case
  • Dana's secured backlog has meaningfully strengthened due to the Dakota program win, with $200 million of previously projected future sales now moved into the 2028 backlog category and $50 million shifted from nonsecured to secured backlog, increasing near-term visibility and reducing execution risk for the Dana 2030 plan. This acceleration in backlog conversion, coupled with the company's ability to leverage existing capacity at the Toledo assembly complex for minimal capital investment, positions Dana to capture higher-margin incremental sales sooner than anticipated. The Dakota award alone represents $250 million in annual sales launching in early 2028, and with over 60% of Dana's 2030 growth already secured through wins like this, the market may be underestimating the speed at which the company can achieve its $10 billion revenue target. Furthermore, the management team highlighted that new business wins are carrying higher profitability due to improved mix and pricing power, particularly in EV programs where Dana has secured structural repricing benefits rather than one-time gains, which will sustain margin expansion beyond cyclical recoveries. This combination of derisked near-term growth and structurally improved profitability suggests Dana is well-positioned to exceed its mid-double-digit margin guidance of 14% to 15% by 2030, potentially driving multiple expansion as investors recognize the quality and durability of its earnings stream. Dana
▼ Bear case
  • Dana's adjusted free cash flow guidance remains unchanged at $250 to $350 million for 2026, despite strong first-quarter EBITDA performance and cost-saving initiatives, signaling that working capital headwinds and elevated capital spending could persistently erode cash conversion. The company reported a use of $195 million in adjusted free cash flow for Q1 2026, driven by a $224 million working capital outflow tied to higher accounts receivable and timing delays in VAT recoveries and customer-paid tooling, with management acknowledging these dynamics are normal for the first quarter but offering no clear path to meaningful improvement. Simultaneously, net capital spending is expected to rise to $325 million in 2026—$70 million above 2025 levels—as Dana invests in efficiency improvements and supports new business backlog, including potential facility lease buyouts using Off-Highway sale proceeds that could further strain cash flow. While management emphasized disciplined working capital management, the lack of concrete improvement in cash flow generation, combined with ongoing investments and the structural use of proceeds for non-operational purposes like lease buyouts, raises concerns that free cash flow may remain stagnant or even decline relative to earnings growth. This disconnect between improving profitability and stagnant cash flow could undermine investor confidence in Dana's ability to fund its $2 billion shareholder return target through 2030 or support higher-margin growth without increasing leverage, particularly if macroeconomic pressures delay customer recoveries or commodity cost timing worsens. Dana

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Peer Comparison

Companies in the Auto Parts
S.No. Ticker Company Market CapP/EP/STotal Debt (Qtr)
1 AAP Advance Auto Parts Inc 65.13 Bn-2,713.787.573.41 Bn
2 AZO Autozone Inc 53.07 Bn28.802.669.02 Bn
3 MGA Magna International Inc 17.54 Bn44.620.564.66 Bn
4 GPC Genuine Parts Co 16.15 Bn268.820.654.64 Bn
5 AUR Aurora Innovation, Inc. 13.77 Bn-16.573,443.09-
6 BWA Borgwarner Inc 13.21 Bn51.790.923.88 Bn
7 APTV Aptiv PLC 12.84 Bn-40.370.629.35 Bn
8 ALV Autoliv Inc 8.73 Bn-72.120.792.09 Bn