Centerra Gold Inc. (NYSE: CGAU)

Sector: Basic Materials Industry: Gold CIK: 0001854640
Market Cap 3.10 Bn
P/B 1.60
P/E 9.14
P/S 2.41
ROIC (Qtr) 14.23
Div Yield % 0.98
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 21.99
Total Debt (Qtr) 58.32 Mn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.03

About

Price action

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Strong operating cash flow of 338.34M provides robust 5.80x coverage of total debt 58.32M, indicating excellent debt servicing capability and financial flexibility.
  • Healthy cash reserves of 561.80M provide 43.53x coverage of short-term debt 12.91M, demonstrating strong liquidity position and minimal refinancing risk.
  • Operating cash flow of 338.34M provides exceptional 23.07x coverage of interest expenses 14.66M, showing strong debt service capability.
  • Operating cash flow of 338.34M provides strong 33.29x coverage of stock compensation 10.16M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Strong tangible asset base of 2.69B provides 46.12x coverage of total debt 58.32M, indicating robust asset backing and low credit risk.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 338.34M barely covers its investment activities of (256.49M), with a coverage ratio of -1.32, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 338.34M provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (41.60M) with a -8.13 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Investment activities of (256.49M) provide weak support for R&D spending of 50.62M, which is -5.07x, suggesting potentially insufficient investment in innovation relative to other capital deployment.
  • Operating cash flow of 338.34M barely covers operating expenses of (20.42M) with a -16.57 ratio, suggesting thin operational efficiency margins and limited flexibility.
  • Free cash flow of 130.49M represents just -13.38x of debt issuance (9.76M), suggesting concerning reliance on leverage rather than internal cash generation for growth.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Gold
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 NEM NEWMONT Corp /DE/ 121.63 Bn 16.92 5.66 5.65 Bn
2 AEM Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd 96.06 Bn 27.86 9.09 0.34 Bn
3 B Barrick Mining Corp 82.76 Bn 23.10 5.67 4.71 Bn
4 WPM Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. 56.61 Bn 56.52 30.93 0.01 Bn
5 FNV FRANCO NEVADA Corp 44.11 Bn 47.96 28.52 0.00 Bn
6 KGC Kinross Gold Corp 38.43 Bn 21.85 5.96 1.24 Bn
7 PAAS Pan American Silver Corp 19.78 Bn 31.19 6.08 0.86 Bn
8 AGI Alamos Gold Inc 17.45 Bn 32.41 10.85 0.28 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.96 3.17
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 7.63 -11.55
EV to Debt EV to Debt 44.27 548.67
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 5.69 12.24
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 5.90 3.14
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 19.79 12.17
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 0.83 1.72
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 2.01 7.50
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 1.60 5.26
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 9.14 -1.39
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 8.14 1.54
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 8.90 5.40
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.15 0.17
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 23.32 10.25
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 30.95 406.21
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -38.65 -97.36
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) -7.04 130.91
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) -25.50 -5.27
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 215.62 518.35
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 28.23 53.19
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 94.98 679.30
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 100.96 144.05
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 236.00 224.62
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) -35.13 171.65
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) -12.92 84.25
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.48 0.26
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.08 0.03
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 1.52 3.14
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 2.89 4.90
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.03 0.27
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 30.95 406.21
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 30.95 406.21
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 44.60 -19.19
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 35.31 -44.57
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 34.16 -34.79
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 29.60 30.59
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 26.40 -40.44