Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NYSE: BXMT)

Sector: Real Estate Industry: REIT - Mortgage CIK: 0001061630
Market Cap 3.26 Bn
P/B 0.91
P/E 30.37
P/S 6.41
ROIC (Qtr) 1.12
Div Yield % 9.83
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 18.54
Total Debt (Qtr) 15.46 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 4.31

About

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc., or BXMT, operates in the real estate finance industry and is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol BXMT. The company's primary business activity involves the origination or acquisition of senior, floating rate mortgage loans that are secured by a first-priority mortgage on commercial real estate assets in North America, Europe, and Australia. As of December 31, 2023, the company's loan portfolio consisted of 178 loans with a total principal balance of $24.9...

Read more

Price action

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Operating cash flow of 224.11M provides exceptional 1000.49x coverage of minority interest expenses 224000, showing strong core operations.
  • Strong operating cash flow of 224.11M provides 4.31x coverage of SG&A expenses 52.05M, showing efficient operational cost management.
  • Robust free cash flow of 215.04M exceeds capital expenditure of 9.07M by 23.71x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.
  • Cash position of 377.92M provides exceptional 1687.15x coverage of minority interest expenses 224000, indicating strong liquidity.
  • Strong free cash flow of 215.04M provides 4.13x coverage of SG&A expenses 52.05M, indicating efficient cost management.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 224.11M barely covers its investment activities of 1.95B, with a coverage ratio of 0.12, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 224.11M provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (323.80M) with a -0.69 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Cash reserves of 377.92M provide limited coverage of acquisition spending of (185.86M), which is -2.03x, suggesting aggressive expansion might strain liquidity if market conditions deteriorate.
  • Operating earnings of 109.88M show weak coverage of depreciation charges of 56.15M, with a 1.96 ratio indicating high capital intensity and potential reinvestment needs.
  • Free cash flow of 215.04M represents just -0.13x of debt issuance (1.72B), suggesting concerning reliance on leverage rather than internal cash generation for growth.

Peer comparison

Companies in the REIT - Mortgage
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 NLY Annaly Capital Management Inc 13.57 Bn 10.12 7.94 107.02 Bn
2 AGNC AGNC Investment Corp. 11.33 Bn 16.49 30.46 95.01 Bn
3 STWD Starwood Property Trust, Inc. 6.34 Bn 17.32 3.51 21.43 Bn
4 RITM Rithm Capital Corp. 5.69 Bn 7.32 1.14 34.97 Bn
5 BXMT Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. 3.26 Bn 30.37 6.41 15.46 Bn
6 ARR Armour Residential REIT, Inc. 1.84 Bn 35.07 15.78 16.56 Bn
7 DX Dynex Capital Inc 1.60 Bn 9.10 6.93 11.75 Bn
8 ABR Arbor Realty Trust Inc 1.50 Bn 9.82 2.84 10.40 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.98 0.83
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 86.55 -102.96
EV to Debt EV to Debt 1.25 1.31
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 176.53 -260.73
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 68.99 -16.37
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 90.20 3.47
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 5.96 9.18
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 38.18 26.77
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 0.91 0.68
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 30.37 -4.85
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 0.33 -0.55
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 298.40 29.47
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 1.88 1.15
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 150.16 57.60
Interest Coverage Interest Coverage 0.00 -0.17
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex Growth (1y) % 0.00 37.60
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 17.33 24.22
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) -19.31 4.53
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 144.00 17.83
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) -29.51 9.86
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 145.76 20.98
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 145.76 11.17
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 145.32 59.25
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) -45.29 59.63
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) -5.57 20.65
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.03 0.04
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 1.39 0.83
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio 0.00 0.00
Current Ratio Current Ratio 0.00 0.00
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 4.31 5.05
Interest Cover Ratio Interest Cover Ratio 0.00 -0.17
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned 0.00 -0.17
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 32.70 137.11
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 21.63 142.19
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 21.63 129.16
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 100.00 117.97
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 21.10 125.89