BayFirst Financial BAFN

NASDAQ BAFN
$7.38 +0.55 (+8.05%)
At close: Aug 20, 2026 · 4:00 PM EDT
Financial Ratios
Market Cap30.89 Mn
P/E-0.49
P/S0.93
Div. Yield0.00
Total Debt (Qtr)5.97 Mn
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About

BayFirst Financial Corp. operates as a bank holding company that owns BayFirst National Bank, delivering community banking services to consumers and small businesses in the Tampa Bay/Sarasota region. As of December 31, 2025, the company reported consolidated total assets of $1.30 billion, total loans held for investment of $963.9 million, total deposits of $1.18 billion, and total shareholders’ equity of $87.6 million. The Bank’s main office is located at the BayFirst…

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Sector: Financial Services Sector rationale BayFirst Financial operates as a bank holding company that owns a national bank, generating revenue primarily from interest income on loans (commercial, consumer, and government-guaranteed) and fee income from deposit services. Its core business activities—taking deposits and lending money under a banking charter—fall squarely within the Financial Services sector. Industries: Regional Banks Financial Services Primary BayFirst Financial operates as a community bank with a deposit and lending franchise concentrated in the Tampa Bay/Sarasota region of Florida. It provides core banking products including checking, savings, and certificates of deposit, alongside commercial and consumer loans. Mortgage Lending Financial Services Secondary The company maintains a Residential Mortgage Division that offers fixed and variable rate home mortgages for purchase and refinance to customers in its local market. Classified using BQ-MICS CIK: 0001649739

Investment Thesis

▲ Bull case
  • BayFirst National Bank (BAFN) has a significant opportunity to capitalize on its newly raised $80 million in capital from the PIPE offering to drive organic growth in its core Tampa Bay and Sarasota markets, which remains underappreciated by the market. The bank has explicitly stated it has no plans to deploy lending programs outside these regions, allowing for concentrated efforts to deepen relationships with local businesses and retail customers—a strategy aligned with the CEO’s background and network in the area. This geographic focus reduces execution risk compared to broader expansion plays and leverages the bank’s existing branch footprint and community trust. With tangible book value per share currently depressed due to recent losses, the infusion of capital provides a strong foundation to grow loans and deposits without dilution concerns in the near term, especially as the rights offering allows existing shareholders to participate. The market is likely underestimating how quickly this capital can be translated into earning assets, particularly as the bank exits the drag of legacy SBA 7a servicing costs and shifts focus to higher-margin relationship banking.
  • The bank’s legacy SBA 7a portfolio, while currently a drag on earnings, contains an underlying performing component that management has hinted at but not fully emphasized—specifically, Scott McKim’s comment that the Bolt and FlashCap segments (approximately $100 million of the $159 million unguaranteed SBA 7a balance) include loans that “have performed well” despite being overshadowed by defaults. This suggests a potential for credit improvement as economic conditions stabilize or as the bank intensifies its workout efforts, which could lead to fewer charge-offs and even upgrades to accrual status over time. The fact that 68% of classified loans are current and performing, and that $3.8 million of the $15.9 million in nonperforming loans are current and paying as agreed, indicates that a meaningful portion of the problem assets may be resolvable without significant loss. If the bank successfully resolves even a portion of this portfolio through modifications or repayments, the allowance for credit losses (currently 2.35% of total loans) could be released, directly boosting earnings and tangible book value—a catalyst not yet priced into the stock.
  • BAFN’s liquidity position is stronger than it appears, with a bank liquidity ratio of 13.85% as of March 31, 2026, equating to roughly $130 million in liquid assets on a near-$1 billion balance sheet, excluding the recently raised $80 million in capital. This provides ample flexibility to support loan growth, absorb unexpected losses, or even accelerate debt reduction without needing to rely on volatile wholesale funding markets—a notable advantage given the regional bank sector’s sensitivity to liquidity concerns. Furthermore, the bank reported no wholesale borrowings and maintains a high percentage of insured deposits (83% FDIC-insured), which enhances stability. The pro forma improvement in capital ratios to 10.02% Tier 1 leverage and 14.4% total capital to risk-weighted assets (post-capital contribution) places BAFN well above regulatory minimums and in a stronger position than many peers to withstand economic headwinds while pursuing growth—a structural advantage the market may be overlooking amid near-term losses.
▼ Bear case
  • BayFirst National Bank (BAFN) faces a material and persistent risk from its legacy unguaranteed SBA 7a loan portfolio, which continues to dominate credit quality metrics and remains a significant drag on profitability despite management’s assurances. As of March 31, 2026, the bank held $159.3 million in unguaranteed SBA 7a loans, with net charge-offs from this segment alone reaching $3.4 million in Q1 FY26—accounting for over 77% of total net charge-offs—and the allowance for credit losses on these loans is concentrated in the higher-risk Bolt and FlashCap components, reserved at approximately 13% on roughly $100 million of exposure. Management’s comparison of this portfolio to small business credit cards highlights its unsecured nature and vulnerability to interest rate shocks and inflation, yet they provided no clear timeline for when defaults might subside, acknowledging they “do not have a clear answer” and that the portfolio’s performance lacks comparable benchmarks for modeling. This uncertainty, combined with the portfolio’s continued runoff at approximately $12 million per quarter (with a significant portion likely charging off), suggests that earnings pressure from credit costs could persist longer than anticipated, delaying the path to sustainable profitability.
  • Despite the recent $80 million capital raise, BAFN’s core earnings power remains severely impaired, as evidenced by a widening net loss of $5.7 million in Q1 FY26 compared to $2.8 million in Q4 FY25, driven by declining net interest income and persistently high noninterest expenses. Net interest income fell $1.7 million sequentially and $1.5 million year-over-year, largely due to the $97 million loan portfolio sale completed in December 2025, which removed a meaningful base of earning assets. Simultaneously, noninterest expense increased $3 million quarter-over-quarter, with $2.3 million attributed to a full quarter of servicing costs on the legacy SBA 7a portfolio—a cost that will persist as long as the bank retains servicing rights on sold guarantees. The bank’s net interest margin compressed to 3.42%, down 16 basis points from the prior quarter, reflecting both lower-yielding assets and the drag of excess liquidity from the capital raise not yet deployed. Without a clear, near-term plan to grow the loan book at attractive margins or significantly reduce the legacy servicing cost burden, the bank risks burning through its newly raised capital before achieving meaningful earnings improvement—a scenario the market may be underestimating given the lack of specific loan growth targets or timelines provided by management.
  • BAFN’s deposit base shows signs of fragility that could undermine its funding stability and growth prospects, particularly as the bank has relied on non-relationship and brokered deposits to sustain levels, which are inherently less sticky. Deposits decreased $98 million (8%) in Q1 FY26 and $42.4 million (4%) year-over-year, with the quarterly decline driven by reductions in high-rate promotional deposits and brokered balances—indicating that the bank may be losing its ability to attract or retain cost-effective funding without offering unsustainable incentives. While 83% of deposits are FDIC-insured, the reliance on promotional and brokered funds suggests the bank’s core deposit franchise is weak, potentially forcing it to pay higher rates to maintain liquidity as it attempts to grow loans. This dynamic could compress net interest margin further if the bank must compete on rate for deposits while simultaneously trying to lend at disciplined spreads, creating a self-defeating cycle that hinders profitability—a structural challenge not adequately addressed in management’s commentary, which focused more on product offerings than on deposit cost resilience or core deposit growth strategies.

Peer Comparison

Companies in the Banks - Regional
S.No. Ticker Company Market CapP/EP/STotal Debt (Qtr)
1 HDB Hdfc Bank Ltd 119.58 Bn15.304.7968.94 Bn
2 PNC Pnc Financial Services Group, Inc. 97.75 Bn13.383.9185.72 Bn
3 USB Us Bancorp De 96.33 Bn12.363.2637.34 Bn
4 LLDTF Lloyds Banking Group plc 93.61 Bn122.84--
5 NWG NatWest Group plc 73.86 Bn9.133.3696.65 Bn
6 DB Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft 71.72 Bn4.951.92129.43 Bn
7 NU Nu Holdings Ltd. 68.51 Bn21.083.801.06 Bn
8 TFC Truist Financial Corp 61.69 Bn11.152.9669.86 Bn