American Express Co (NYSE: AXP)

Sector: Financial Services Industry: Credit Services CIK: 0000004962
Market Cap 266.36 Bn
P/B 8.22
P/E 25.27
P/S 4.08
ROIC (Qtr) 11.12
Div Yield % 0.84
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 12.17
Total Debt (Qtr) 59.23 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 1.83

About

American Express Company, widely recognized by its stock symbol AXP, is a globally integrated payments company that operates in the financial services industry. The company is renowned for providing customers with access to products, insights, and experiences that enrich lives and build business success. American Express is a leader in the provision of credit and charge cards to consumers, small businesses, mid-sized companies, and large corporations across the world. American Express generates revenue primarily through driving spending on its...

Read more

Price action

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Strong tangible asset base of 297.55B provides 5.02x coverage of total debt 59.23B, indicating robust asset backing and low credit risk.
  • Operating cash flow of 21.14B provides strong 40.57x coverage of stock compensation 521M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Robust free cash flow of 18.94B exceeds capital expenditure of 2.20B by 8.62x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.
  • Retained earnings of 24.47B represent substantial 0.75x of equity 32.42B, indicating strong internal capital generation.
  • Free cash flow of 18.94B provides solid 1.51x coverage of operating expenses 12.57B, showing operational efficiency.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 21.14B barely covers its investment activities of (25.19B), with a coverage ratio of -0.84, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 21.14B provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (2.20B) with a -9.62 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Cash reserves of 54.71B provide limited coverage of acquisition spending of (997M), which is -54.87x, suggesting aggressive expansion might strain liquidity if market conditions deteriorate.
  • Retained earnings of 24.47B provide limited buffer against comprehensive income items of (3.25B), which is -7.53x, indicating elevated exposure to market risks.
  • Operating cash flow of 21.14B is outpaced by equity issuance of (5.85B) (-3.62 ratio), indicating concerning reliance on equity markets for funding operations.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Credit Services
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 V Visa Inc. 685.45 Bn 34.17 17.14 25.17 Bn
2 MA Mastercard Inc 520.38 Bn 36.52 16.53 18.98 Bn
3 AXP American Express Co 266.36 Bn 25.27 4.08 59.23 Bn
4 COF Capital One Financial Corp 111.93 Bn 102.41 3.87 51.48 Bn
5 PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc. 58.35 Bn 11.87 1.78 11.28 Bn
6 SYF Synchrony Financial 32.00 Bn 9.16 3.32 14.43 Bn
7 SOFI SoFi Technologies, Inc. 29.56 Bn 46.17 8.90 2.81 Bn
8 ALLY Ally Financial Inc. 14.44 Bn 52.52 1.83 20.63 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.90 1.03
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 12.68 4.72
EV to Debt EV to Debt 4.53 2.99
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 19.92 -246.63
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 17.63 -62.30
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 14.16 7.33
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.01 10.21
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 4.11 10.01
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 8.22 3.47
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 25.27 13.86
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 4.80 1.59
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 20.40 2.22
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 2.34 0.68
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 8.55 4.82
Interest Coverage Interest Coverage 0.00 -64.96
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -19.33 -85.80
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 14.17 7.91
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) -13.33 5.47
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 6.56 16.85
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 6.17 -0.69
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 6.40 33.67
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 6.40 1.73
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 9.32 -64.54
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 43.50 129.37
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 10.22 18.73
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.22 0.23
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.09 0.05
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio 0.00 0.46
Current Ratio Current Ratio 0.00 1.05
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 1.83 4.88
Interest Cover Ratio Interest Cover Ratio 0.00 -64.96
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned 0.00 -64.96
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 23.30 -17.83
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 20.62 125.65
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 20.62 -9.92
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 100.00 72.34
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 16.10 -23.76