Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (NYSE: ARCO)

Sector: Consumer Cyclical Industry: Restaurants CIK: 0001508478
Market Cap 1.54 Bn
P/B 2.07
P/E 6.27
P/S 0.34
ROIC (Qtr) 11.30
Div Yield % 2.45
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 5.22
Total Debt (Qtr) 2.06 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 2.77

About

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc., with its ticker symbol ARCO, is a leading player in the quick-service restaurant (QSR) industry, specifically in Latin America and the Caribbean. As the largest independent McDonald's franchise in the world, the company boasts an impressive portfolio of over 2,361 restaurants spread across 20 countries and territories. Incorporated in 2010 and headquartered in Montevideo, Uruguay, Arcos Dorados has established a strong foothold in the region's QSR market. Arcos Dorados generates revenue through two primary sources:...

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Price action

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Operating cash flow of 270.97M provides exceptional 565.70x coverage of minority interest expenses 479000, showing strong core operations.
  • Operating cash flow of 270.97M provides exceptional 16.74x coverage of interest expenses 16.18M, showing strong debt service capability.
  • Cash position of 182.80M provides exceptional 381.62x coverage of minority interest expenses 479000, indicating strong liquidity.
  • Operating cash flow of 270.97M fully covers other non-current liabilities 133.12M by 2.04x, showing strong long-term stability.
  • Tangible assets of 3.42B provide robust 12.22x coverage of other current liabilities 279.96M, indicating strong asset backing.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 270.97M barely covers its investment activities of (355.05M), with a coverage ratio of -0.76, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 270.97M provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (50.56M) with a -5.36 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Cash reserves of 182.80M provide limited coverage of acquisition spending of (7.06M), which is -25.90x, suggesting aggressive expansion might strain liquidity if market conditions deteriorate.
  • High receivables of 222.13M relative to inventory of 56.89M (3.90 ratio) suggests aggressive credit terms or collection difficulties, potentially masking revenue quality issues.
  • Free cash flow of 5.75M provides weak coverage of capital expenditures of 265.22M, with a 0.02 ratio suggesting additional external financing needs for growth initiatives.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Restaurants
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 MCD Mcdonalds Corp 222.05 Bn 26.39 8.45 55.82 Bn
2 SBUX Starbucks Corp 95.51 Bn 51.45 2.57 26.61 Bn
3 CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc 50.94 Bn 33.15 4.32 4.98 Bn
4 YUM Yum Brands Inc 43.17 Bn 29.83 5.36 11.55 Bn
5 QSR Restaurant Brands International Inc. 22.43 Bn 24.33 2.42 15.64 Bn
6 DRI Darden Restaurants Inc 21.91 Bn 19.91 1.77 6.16 Bn
7 YUMC Yum China Holdings, Inc. 18.12 Bn 20.05 1.57 1.84 Bn
8 DPZ Dominos Pizza Inc 14.57 Bn 24.72 3.01 5.05 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.96 2.05
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 12.60 16.57
EV to Debt EV to Debt 1.66 4.75
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 9.71 3.45
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 6.25 9.76
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 593.50 29.06
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 2.22 6.55
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 0.75 2.40
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 2.07 -1.40
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 6.27 13.35
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 4.85 -9.56
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 15.40 18.72
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.18 0.84
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 666.67 30.41
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 21.72 -86.85
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) 27.16 -24.56
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 57.71 35.50
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) -18.18 -0.72
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 47.60 -564.81
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 13.68 25.78
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 27.81 -507.68
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 45.39 -41.98
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 69.57 -126.51
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 110.54 5,724.78
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) -3.03 23.70
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 1.28 0.99
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.09 0.07
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.25 0.78
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 0.89 1.47
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 2.77 0.05
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 21.72 -86.85
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 21.72 -86.85
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 11.90 7.71
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 7.71 -2.27
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 7.36 -1.97
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 12.40 34.04
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 5.40 -3.69