Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (NYSE: ALSN)

Sector: Consumer Cyclical Industry: Auto Parts CIK: 0001411207
Market Cap 8.87 Bn
P/B 4.82
P/E 12.68
P/S 2.89
ROIC (Qtr) 16.94
Div Yield % 1.28
Rev 1y % (Qtr) -15.90
Total Debt (Qtr) 2.40 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 1.30

About

Allison Transmission Holdings Inc., often simply referred to as Allison Transmission, is a major player in the global manufacturing industry, specializing in the production of fully automatic transmissions and electrified propulsion solutions for a diverse range of commercial and defense vehicles. The company's stock is publicly traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol ALSN. Allison Transmission's primary business activities involve the design and manufacture of vehicle propulsion solutions, including commercial-duty on-highway and...

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Price action

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Healthy cash reserves of 902M provide 180.40x coverage of short-term debt 5M, demonstrating strong liquidity position and minimal refinancing risk.
  • Operating cash flow of 804M provides strong 30.92x coverage of stock compensation 26M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Tangible assets of 2.63B provide exceptional 19.31x coverage of deferred revenue 136M, showing strong service capability backing.
  • Strong operating cash flow of 804M provides 2.27x coverage of SG&A expenses 354M, showing efficient operational cost management.
  • Robust free cash flow of 628M exceeds capital expenditure of 176M by 3.57x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 804M barely covers its investment activities of (185M), with a coverage ratio of -4.35, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Investment activities of (185M) provide weak support for R&D spending of 184M, which is -1.01x, suggesting potentially insufficient investment in innovation relative to other capital deployment.
  • Operating cash flow of 804M provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (90M) with a -8.93 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Free cash flow of 628M represents just -125.60x of debt issuance (5M), suggesting concerning reliance on leverage rather than internal cash generation for growth.
  • Operating cash flow of 804M is outpaced by equity issuance of (391M) (-2.06 ratio), indicating concerning reliance on equity markets for funding operations.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Auto Parts
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 ORLY O Reilly Automotive Inc 80.07 Bn 32.23 4.59 8.40 Bn
2 AZO Autozone Inc 57.24 Bn 23.23 2.97 12.05 Bn
3 APTV Aptiv PLC 19.67 Bn 66.67 0.98 8.03 Bn
4 GPC Genuine Parts Co 17.83 Bn 22.05 0.74 6.40 Bn
5 MGA Magna International Inc 15.86 Bn 15.36 0.38 7.48 Bn
6 ALV Autoliv Inc 9.72 Bn 12.92 0.92 2.19 Bn
7 MBLY Mobileye Global Inc. 9.47 Bn -28.17 4.88 0.00 Bn
8 BWA Borgwarner Inc 8.87 Bn 66.21 0.63 3.90 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 1.90 1.16
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 13.04 9.30
EV to Debt EV to Debt 4.37 34.64
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 10.98 4.45
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 9.83 7.40
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 16.70 17.25
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.18 1.58
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 3.42 3.42
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 4.82 -0.33
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 12.68 11.70
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 7.77 1.64
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 12.90 12.18
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 1.06 0.41
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 14.11 13.70
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 10.85 -110.44
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -51.72 -13.49
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 14.47 27.17
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 8.16 1.96
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) -3.85 5.41
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) -4.05 -8.06
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) -3.05 -22.36
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) -2.91 -123.98
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) -1.20 -110.42
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) -11.80 24.26
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) -2.95 16.01
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.56 0.92
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.09 -0.25
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 2.06 0.69
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 3.82 2.88
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 1.30 0.22
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 10.85 -110.44
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 10.85 -110.44
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 35.10 -952.44
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 31.12 -997.37
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 28.25 -987.56
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 48.30 -122.43
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 22.80 -979.78