Alumis Inc. (NASDAQ: ALMS)

Sector: Healthcare Industry: Biotechnology CIK: 0001847367
Market Cap 1.91 Bn
P/B 4.97
P/E -7.80
P/S 86.47
ROIC (Qtr) -96.33
Div Yield % 0.00
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 0.00
Total Debt (Qtr) 37.80 Mn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.10

About

Price action

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Healthy cash reserves of 65.26M provide 14.79x coverage of short-term debt 4.41M, demonstrating strong liquidity position and minimal refinancing risk.
  • Strong tangible asset base of 437.06M provides 11.56x coverage of total debt 37.80M, indicating robust asset backing and low credit risk.
  • Tangible assets of 437.06M provide exceptional 224.82x coverage of deferred revenue 1.94M, showing strong service capability backing.
  • Short-term investments of 312.47M provide solid 5.54x coverage of other current liabilities 56.45M, indicating strong liquidity.
  • Tangible assets of 437.06M provide robust 7.74x coverage of other current liabilities 56.45M, indicating strong asset backing.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of (372.38M) barely covers its investment activities of 223.81M, with a coverage ratio of -1.66, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Investment activities of 223.81M provide weak support for R&D spending of 390.42M, which is 0.57x, suggesting potentially insufficient investment in innovation relative to other capital deployment.
  • Cash reserves of 65.26M provide limited coverage of acquisition spending of 49.74M, which is 1.31x, suggesting aggressive expansion might strain liquidity if market conditions deteriorate.
  • Operating cash flow of (372.38M) provides insufficient coverage of deferred revenue obligations of 1.94M, which is -191.55x, raising concerns about future service delivery capabilities.
  • Short-term investments of 312.47M significantly exceed cash reserves of 65.26M, which is 4.79x, indicating potentially excessive yield-seeking behavior at the expense of liquidity.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Biotechnology
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 SMMT Summit Therapeutics Inc. 1,446.17 Bn -1,569.17 0.00 0.01 Bn
2 ONC BeOne Medicines Ltd. 439.23 Bn 6,407.40 88.33 1.90 Bn
3 VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc / Ma 120.62 Bn 32.82 10.29 1.83 Bn
4 REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 84.40 Bn 18.44 5.92 2.71 Bn
5 ALNY Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 56.13 Bn 1,288.39 17.49 3.21 Bn
6 ARGX Argenx Se 47.89 Bn 31.79 24,973.95 -
7 BNTC Benitec Biopharma Inc. 42.45 Bn -1,015.00 0.00 0.00 Bn
8 INSM INSMED Inc 32.67 Bn -27.60 73.08 0.74 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 3.69 12.96
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO -4.83 23.73
EV to Debt EV to Debt 47.61 772.65
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT -7.09 -11.30
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA -3.99 7.11
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF -4.82 22.12
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 0.94 68.89
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 81.35 199.70
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 4.97 22.62
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E -7.80 -12.30
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Dividend Coverage Ratio 0.00 -12.02
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 0.17
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.00 0.01
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 -0.15
Interest Coverage Interest Coverage 0.00 857.11
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) 60.44 -27.24
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) -69.42 747.06
Dividend Growth (1y) % Dividend Growth (1y) % 0.00 0.01
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) -2.67 -48.21
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) -88.74 -2.09
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) -6.26 -57.79
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) -6.26 -14.35
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 96.30 -30.88
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) -72.38 -32.51
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit Growth (1y) % 0.00 227.96
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.05 0.14
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.00 0.00
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 1.00 3.79
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 6.01 7.23
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.10 0.42
Interest Cover Ratio Interest Cover Ratio 0.00 857.11
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned 0.00 857.11
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) -1,126.00 -18,509.94
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) -1,146.94 -18,862.18
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) -1,146.94 -19,783.19
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 100.00 -8.62
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) -1,108.20 -19,732.60