Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (NYSE: AJG)

Sector: Financial Services Industry: Insurance Brokers CIK: 0000354190
Market Cap 55.76 Bn
P/B 4.93
P/E 51.09
P/S 5.25
ROIC (Qtr) 6.11
Div Yield % 1.13
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 19.91
Total Debt (Qtr) 13.69 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.59

About

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG), a prominent player in the insurance brokerage and risk management services industry, operates globally with a diverse clientele across various sectors. The company's main business activities include providing comprehensive insurance, reinsurance, and risk management solutions, superior claim outcomes, and consulting services to its clients. AJG generates revenue primarily through commissions, fees, and supplemental and contingent revenues from its brokerage operations, as well as fees from its risk management operations....

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Price action

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Operating cash flow of 1.92B provides exceptional 336.19x coverage of minority interest expenses 5.70M, showing strong core operations.
  • Operating cash flow of 1.92B provides strong 10.78x coverage of stock compensation 177.70M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Strong tangible asset base of 46.10B provides 3.37x coverage of total debt 13.69B, indicating robust asset backing and low credit risk.
  • Tangible assets of 46.10B provide exceptional 51.73x coverage of deferred revenue 891.10M, showing strong service capability backing.
  • Robust free cash flow of 1.77B exceeds capital expenditure of 149M by 11.86x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 1.92B barely covers its investment activities of (16.26B), with a coverage ratio of -0.12, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 1.92B provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (631.30M) with a -3.04 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Cash reserves of 1.40B provide limited coverage of acquisition spending of (16.10B), which is -0.09x, suggesting aggressive expansion might strain liquidity if market conditions deteriorate.
  • Operating earnings of 2.60B show weak coverage of depreciation charges of 973.50M, with a 2.67 ratio indicating high capital intensity and potential reinvestment needs.
  • High depreciation of 973.50M relative to operating cash flow of 1.92B, which is 0.51x suggests significant maintenance capital requirements affecting free cash flow.

Geographical Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Insurance Brokers
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 MMC Marsh & Mclennan Companies, Inc. 92.62 Bn 29.47 4.67 21.43 Bn
2 AON Aon plc 74.51 Bn 27.41 4.38 17.44 Bn
3 AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. 55.76 Bn 51.09 5.25 13.69 Bn
4 BRO Brown & Brown, Inc. 22.82 Bn 108.30 13.93 7.97 Bn
5 WTW Willis Towers Watson Plc 22.12 Bn 46.77 5.80 5.91 Bn
6 ERIE Erie Indemnity Co 13.10 Bn 45.46 4.72 0.00 Bn
7 CRVL Corvel Corp 3.53 Bn 33.49 3.78 0.02 Bn
8 ARX Accelerant Holdings 2.62 Bn 96.44 4.35 0.12 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.80 0.83
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 26.38 26.54
EV to Debt EV to Debt 4.61 10.83
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 37.74 15.57
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 21.85 12.32
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 28.70 38.93
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.13 -1,866.90
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 5.94 2.59
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 4.93 3.17
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 51.09 24.79
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 2.54 0.83
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 40.00 31.35
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 2.55 1.08
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 36.99 18.16
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 4.48 -4.53
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -3.26 423.33
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) -30.81 -3.76
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 8.51 -1.10
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 41.22 -9.09
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 22.65 -5.72
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 43.03 8.13
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 38.35 -4.46
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 18.62 -68.33
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) -26.14 -67.66
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 15.73 52.95
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.16 0.62
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.31 0.16
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.03 0.54
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 1.06 2.11
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.59 0.93
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 4.48 -4.53
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 4.48 -4.53
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 27.40 6.16
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 19.94 -108.04
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 15.49 -14.94
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 84.40 53.35
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 12.30 -17.46