Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp (NYSE: AGM)

Sector: Financial Services Industry: Credit Services CIK: 0000845877
Market Cap 1.93 Bn
P/B 1.15
P/E 10.03
P/S 5.07
ROIC (Qtr) 0.66
Div Yield % 3.33
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 11.11
Total Debt (Qtr) 31.29 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 18.54

About

Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation, also known as Farmer Mac, is a stockholder-owned, federally chartered corporation operating in the agricultural and rural finance industry. The company provides a secondary market for agricultural and rural loans, with the aim of increasing access to credit for rural America and agricultural borrowers. Farmer Mac generates revenue through interest income earned on assets held on its balance sheet, as well as guarantee and commitment fees received for outstanding guaranteed securities and long-term standby...

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Price action

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Operating cash flow of 344.18M provides strong 43.27x coverage of stock compensation 7.95M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Strong operating cash flow of 344.18M provides 2.92x coverage of SG&A expenses 117.89M, showing efficient operational cost management.
  • Strong free cash flow of 344.18M provides 2.92x coverage of SG&A expenses 117.89M, indicating efficient cost management.
  • Retained earnings of 1.04B represent substantial 0.61x of equity 1.69B, indicating strong internal capital generation.
  • Operating cash flow of 344.18M exceeds receivables of 50.77M by 6.78x, demonstrating excellent collection efficiency.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 344.18M barely covers its investment activities of (2.69B), with a coverage ratio of -0.13, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 344.18M provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (86.16M) with a -3.99 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Free cash flow of 344.18M represents just 0.14x of debt issuance 2.40B, suggesting concerning reliance on leverage rather than internal cash generation for growth.
  • Retained earnings of 1.04B provide limited buffer against comprehensive income items of (5.43M), which is -190.75x, indicating elevated exposure to market risks.
  • R&D investment of 0 represents just 0x of SG&A expenses of 117.89M, indicating potential underinvestment in innovation relative to administrative overhead.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Credit Services
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 V Visa Inc. 685.45 Bn 34.17 17.14 25.17 Bn
2 MA Mastercard Inc 520.38 Bn 36.52 16.53 18.98 Bn
3 AXP American Express Co 266.36 Bn 25.27 4.08 59.23 Bn
4 COF Capital One Financial Corp 111.93 Bn 102.41 3.87 51.48 Bn
5 PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc. 58.35 Bn 11.87 1.78 11.28 Bn
6 SYF Synchrony Financial 32.00 Bn 9.16 3.32 14.43 Bn
7 SOFI SoFi Technologies, Inc. 29.56 Bn 46.17 8.90 2.81 Bn
8 ALLY Ally Financial Inc. 14.44 Bn 52.52 1.83 20.63 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.96 1.03
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 92.70 4.72
EV to Debt EV to Debt 1.02 2.99
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 121.02 -246.63
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 121.02 -62.30
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 92.70 7.33
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 16.50 10.21
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 83.62 10.01
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 1.15 3.47
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 10.03 13.86
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 1.76 1.59
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 33.40 2.22
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 5.90 0.68
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 18.74 4.82
Interest Coverage Interest Coverage 0.00 -64.96
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex Growth (1y) % 0.00 -85.80
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 7.00 7.91
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 11.32 5.47
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 8.93 16.85
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 5.40 -0.69
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 5.40 33.67
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 5.40 1.73
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 12.42 -64.54
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 371.53 129.37
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 8.52 18.73
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.01 0.23
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.27 0.05
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio 0.00 0.46
Current Ratio Current Ratio 0.00 1.05
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 18.54 4.88
Interest Cover Ratio Interest Cover Ratio 0.00 -64.96
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned 0.00 -64.96
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 69.10 -17.83
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 69.10 125.65
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 69.10 -9.92
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 100.00 72.34
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 50.50 -23.76