Affirm Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: AFRM)

Sector: Technology Industry: Software - Infrastructure CIK: 0001820953
Market Cap 26.86 Bn
P/B 8.14
P/E 115.21
P/S 7.76
ROIC (Qtr) 0.96
Div Yield % 0.00
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 33.62
Total Debt (Qtr) 7.93 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 2.40

About

Affirm Holdings, Inc., or Affirm, operates under the ticker symbol AFRM, providing financial products and services to consumers and merchants with a focus on digital and mobile-first commerce. The company's primary business activities include offering installment loans, Pay-in-4, a short-term payment plan, and Core loans, which include monthly interest-bearing and 0% APR installment loans. Affirm also provides a high-yield savings account and a virtual card for consumers. Merchant services include Affirm at Checkout, pay-over-time options, and 0%...

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Price action

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Robust free cash flow of 769.21M exceeds capital expenditure of 202.40M by 3.80x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.
  • Operating cash flow of 971.61M provides strong 13494.64x coverage of operating expenses 72000, showing operational efficiency.
  • Robust R&D investment of 623.54M at 0.68x of SG&A 919.62M demonstrates strong commitment to innovation and future growth.
  • Free cash flow of 769.21M provides solid 10683.50x coverage of operating expenses 72000, showing operational efficiency.
  • Strong free cash flow of 769.21M provides 0.84x coverage of SG&A expenses 919.62M, indicating efficient cost management.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 971.61M barely covers its investment activities of (647.68M), with a coverage ratio of -1.50, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Investment activities of (647.68M) provide weak support for R&D spending of 623.54M, which is -1.04x, suggesting potentially insufficient investment in innovation relative to other capital deployment.
  • The company's operating cash flow of 971.61M shows concerning coverage of stock compensation expenses of 313.05M, with a 3.10 ratio indicating potential earnings quality issues.
  • Operating earnings of 242.81M show weak coverage of depreciation charges of 243.69M, with a 1 ratio indicating high capital intensity and potential reinvestment needs.
  • Operating cash flow of 971.61M is outpaced by equity issuance of (98.08M) (-9.91 ratio), indicating concerning reliance on equity markets for funding operations.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Software - Infrastructure
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 MSFT Microsoft Corp 3,563.59 Bn 33.97 12.13 60.56 Bn
2 ORCL Oracle Corp 561.87 Bn 36.43 9.21 124.39 Bn
3 PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc. 413.65 Bn 377.64 106.17 0.24 Bn
4 PANW Palo Alto Networks Inc 126.45 Bn 113.19 13.23 0.35 Bn
5 CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. 116.42 Bn -370.56 25.50 0.82 Bn
6 SNPS Synopsys Inc 86.06 Bn 64.60 12.20 14.29 Bn
7 NET Cloudflare, Inc. 62.78 Bn -609.27 31.18 3.50 Bn
8 FTNT Fortinet, Inc. 60.83 Bn 32.47 9.28 1.00 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 2.87 2.69
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 33.88 28.91
EV to Debt EV to Debt 4.15 19.83
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 135.59 -9.95
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 93.34 6.82
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 42.80 26.09
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.23 0.36
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 9.52 -9.34
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 8.14 3.88
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 115.21 -10.66
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Dividend Coverage Ratio 0.00 -0.30
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 2.71
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.00 0.10
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 1.68
Interest Coverage Interest Coverage 0.00 -14.20
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -20.74 -408.01
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 51.49 226.39
Dividend Growth (1y) % Dividend Growth (1y) % 0.00 -0.28
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 152.24 25.27
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 197.06 47.48
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 154.80 20.13
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 154.80 14.16
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 150.00 67.50
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 102.17 296.60
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 54.82 46.75
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.30 0.67
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.00 0.01
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio 0.00 1.22
Current Ratio Current Ratio 0.00 2.59
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 2.40 -0.96
Interest Cover Ratio Interest Cover Ratio 0.00 -14.20
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned 0.00 -14.20
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 14.10 -548.16
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 7.02 -199.84
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 7.02 -607.20
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 47.80 51.88
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 6.70 -610.00